US Economics Weekly US Weekly: The tariffs will continue until sentiment improves Comments from President Donald Trump and his cabinet members in the past week suggest that neither an economic downturn nor a severe stock market decline will deter the administration from pursuing... 14th March 2025 · 7 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Europe Weekly: How big a boost from defence? Europe’s plans to increase its defence expenditure are still evolving, but based on what we know so far, we assume that for the euro-zone as a whole it will rise by around 0.5% of GDP between 2024 and... 14th March 2025 · 5 mins read
India Economics Weekly India Weekly: Three risks to the outlook The big takeaway from our India Economic Outlook published this week is that the economy appears to have bottomed out and, with the help of policy stimulus, growth should pick up further over the... 14th March 2025 · 4 mins read
Japan Economics Update What to make of the slowdown in core inflation There are good reasons for the BoJ to strip out only fresh food rather than all food from its preferred measure of core inflation. To be sure, the fact that inflation excluding all food and energy has... 14th March 2025 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Egypt’s policy shift one year on Egyptian authorities are on the path towards restoring macroeconomic stability and received a strong endorsement from the IMF this week. The next – and potentially more complex – phase will be... 13th March 2025 · 8 mins read
US Rapid Response US Producer Prices (Feb. 2025) While final demand and core PPI both surprised to the downside in February, the price increases in the components which matter for the PCE deflator were on the whole hotter than we had anticipated. As... 13th March 2025 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack (Mar. '25) Our Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Rises in oil output from OPEC+, starting in April will gradually provide a... 13th March 2025 · 0 mins read
US Rapid Response US Consumer Prices (Feb. 2025) The softer 0.23% m/m rise in core CPI in February is not as encouraging at it looks, as the components which feed into the Fed’s preferred PCE price index rose more sharply. While it will depend a lot... 12th March 2025 · 2 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Brazil IPCA (Feb. 2025) The sharp rise in Brazilian inflation to 5.1% y/y in February is likely to be followed by further increases in the coming months. Our base case is that next week’s Copom meeting will see the final... 12th March 2025 · 2 mins read
India Rapid Response India Consumer Prices (Feb. 2025) The larger-than-expected fall in Indian headline consumer price inflation to below the RBI’s 4% target in February supports our view that the central bank will continue to loosen monetary policy over... 12th March 2025 · 2 mins read
Canada Chart Pack Canada Chart Pack (Mar. 2025) The imposition of US tariffs and risk of more to come will weigh on exports, consumer confidence and investment. As a result, we now forecast weaker economic growth, with GDP expanding by just 1.0%... 11th March 2025 · 1 min read
India Economic Outlook India Outlook: Economy well-placed to weather tariff storm India’s economy is emerging from its recent soft patch. Headline CPI inflation should remain close to the RBI’s 4% target over the coming months, enabling the central bank to continue easing monetary... 11th March 2025 · 17 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil’s tariff cuts unlikely to curb high food inflation The announcement by Brazil’s government that it will cut import tariff rates to zero for several food products underscores the government’s concerns about rising inflation and its own falling... 10th March 2025 · 3 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Europe Chart Pack (Mar. 2025) Higher defence and infrastructure spending will support euro-zone GDP growth late this year and in 2026. But the boost will be smaller than some are hoping for and take time to feed through. So we... 10th March 2025 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response Egypt Consumer Prices (Feb. 2025) Egypt’s headline inflation rate slowed sharply from 24.0% y/y in January to a near three-year low of 12.8% y/y in February, which should pave the way for the Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) to start its... 10th March 2025 · 2 mins read
