UK Economics Rapid Response UK Consumer Prices (Aug. 2026) We doubt that the combination of the rise in CPI inflation, from 2.9% in July to 3.1% in August and the leaps in energy prices in recent weeks are enough to prompt the Bank of England to hike interest... 16th September 2026 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Diverging interest rate cycles Emerging Europe has weathered the energy shock well so far and we expect regional GDP growth to strengthen in 2027. We remain upbeat on Poland and Czechia, but more cautious than the consensus on... 15th September 2026 · 21 mins read
Africa Rapid Response Nigeria Consumer Prices (Aug. 26) Nigeria’s headline inflation rate was unchanged at 15.4% y/y in August, which keeps the door ajar for a rate cut next week. But we think credibility concerns will win out, and the MPC will keep rates... 15th September 2026 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Emerging Markets Chart Pack (September 2026) EM growth appears to have softened at the start of Q3, but we still think it will accelerate in the coming quarters. As things stand, it doesn’t look like EM central banks will respond to the renewed... 15th September 2026 · 1 min read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Consumer Prices (Aug. 2026) & Manufacturing Sales (Jul. 2026) The second consecutive firm rise in core price pressures in August, coming against a backdrop of surging oil prices, means it now looks increasingly likely the Bank of Canada will follow other major... 14th September 2026 · 2 mins read
India Rapid Response India Consumer Prices (August 2026) India’s headline consumer price inflation jumped to a 20-month high of 4.8% y/y in August and further rises are going to follow, with the renewed surge in oil prices a stark reminder that the risks... 14th September 2026 · 2 mins read
US Economics Weekly Softening in core goods inflation unlikely to last While core goods inflation continued to ease in August, three key developments this week lend support to our view that this is unlikely to last. 11th September 2026 · 6 mins read
US Rapid Response US Consumer Prices (Aug 2026) The upside surprise to core CPI in August will result in another above-target-consistent gain in the core PCE deflator and means the Fed looks set to hike next week. 11th September 2026 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Won’s rebound, CBC to hold fire, China Shock 2.0 The Korean won hit a two-year high this week, helped by profit repatriation by major tech firms and foreign investors scaling back their selling of Korean equities. We think it will make further gains... 11th September 2026 · 4 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Brazil IPCA (Aug. 2026) The slightly larger-than-expected fall in Brazilian inflation to 4.2% y/y in August was driven by a temporary drop in household energy prices. But even so, it keeps the door open for the central bank... 11th September 2026 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Can the BoE stay on hold while the ECB and Fed hike? As the Bank of England’s situation is a bit different to the Fed’s and the ECB’s, it is possible for the Bank to go it alone and not raise interest rates. The risks to that forecast, though, are one... 11th September 2026 · 7 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Stronger inflation points to further yen gains This week’s producer price and wage data show that inflationary pressure in Japan remains firm. That should set the stage for the Bank of Japan to pick up the pace of policy tightening. Meanwhile, the... 11th September 2026 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly One more RBA hike should do the job RBA policymakers continued to signal concerns about upside risks to inflation, while survey data showed that firms still face elevated price pressures. We expect a 25bp hike to 4.60% later this month... 11th September 2026 · 5 mins read
Bank of Japan Watch BoJ set to accelerate its tightening cycle The Bank of Japan will accelerate its tightening cycle with a hike to 1.25% at its upcoming meeting. With the Bank increasingly concerned about upside risks to inflation, we now expect the Bank to... 11th September 2026 · 8 mins read
Latin America Economic Outlook Stuck in the slow lane Tight fiscal stances, deteriorating terms of trade and weakening labour markets mean that Latin American economies will continue to struggle and we think regional growth will come in below 2% in the... 10th September 2026 · 21 mins read
