Japan Economics Weekly Japan Weekly: BoJ can’t shrug off strong inflation for much longer The resilience of exports and the strength in inflation leave the case for tighter monetary policy intact. Nonetheless, with trade negotiations between the US and Japan seemingly at a dead end, the... 18th July 2025 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly ANZ Weekly: Labour market not an obstacle to RBA rate cuts The strong uptick in Australia's unemployment rate in June may be overstating the actual degree of slack in the labour market. After all, the underutilisation rate remains historically low and... 18th July 2025 · 5 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Japan Consumer Prices (June 2025) Underlying inflation remains elevated and is almost certain to overshoot the Bank of Japan’s forecasts. However, with trade tensions looming large over the economy, the risk remains that the BoJ will... 18th July 2025 · 2 mins read
US Chart Pack US Chart Pack (Jul. 2025) Tariff negotiations rumble on, but our base case remains that the tariffs ultimately imposed will not cause a recession – though we expect growth to slow. We forecast GDP growth of 1.6% this year and... 17th July 2025 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly MENA Weekly: Egypt-IMF latest, Morocco’s auto and tourism booms The latest IMF Article IV for Egypt released this week noted the country’s reform progress, but also highlighted key areas that require more work, including strengthening central bank independence and... 17th July 2025 · 6 mins read
ECB Watch ECB Watch: A pause, or an end, to the easing cycle The ECB looks set to leave rates unchanged at next week’s monetary policy meeting and the rate cut that we have pencilled in for September is far from a done deal. Inflation is back down to the ECB’s... 17th July 2025 · 7 mins read
Event Drop-In: Could South Africa be about to see a big bond rally? 1753362000 Is South Africa on the brink of a major shift in its inflation targeting framework?
Canada Chart Pack Canada Chart Pack (July 2025) The economy faces a prolonged period of weak growth as US tariffs and uncertainty over the future of the USMCA weigh on exports and investment. We forecast quarterly GDP growth at or below 1%... 17th July 2025 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone core inflation to creep down in H2 Headline inflation in the euro-zone was at the 2% target in June, with the core rate a little higher. We forecast core inflation to decline to 2% by the end of the year, and if oil prices fall as we... 17th July 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Emerging Markets Chart Pack (July 2025) Our Emerging Markets Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Our base case is that EM growth will slow only modestly this year. But President Trump’s... 17th July 2025 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina: a bumpy path to macro stability ahead The tension inherent in the Milei administration’s goals of using a strong exchange rate to lower inflation while trying to improve Argentina’s external balance sheet is becoming increasingly apparent... 16th July 2025 · 3 mins read
US Rapid Response US Producer Prices (Jun 2025) There were fewer signs of tariff effects in June’s PPI data, meaning our estimate for core PCE prices now points to a trivially smaller 0.27% m/m rise last month. While prices are rising at slower... 16th July 2025 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Consumer Prices (Jun. 2025) The unexpected rise in CPI inflation from 3.4% in May to a 17-month high of 3.6% in June (consensus & BoE forecast 3.4%, CE 3.3%) may not prevent the Bank of England from cutting interest rates by 25... 16th July 2025 · 3 mins read
US Rapid Response US Consumer Prices (Jun 2025) The 0.2% m/m rise in the core CPI in June indicates that the Fed’s preferred core PCE deflator rose by 0.3% last month, with the annual core PCE inflation rate unchanged at 2.7%. While that would be... 15th July 2025 · 3 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Consumer Prices (Jun. 2025) The above-target monthly gains in CPI-trim and CPI-median in June leave the three-month annualised pace of those averaged measures holding uncomfortably high at 3.5%, meaning the door is now firmly... 15th July 2025 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Focus South Africa and the impact of a lower inflation target A lowering of the South Africa’s inflation target is being hotly debated among policymakers and we are now factoring in a change to the target, from 3-6% now to 3±1%, into our forecasts. The Reserve... 15th July 2025 · 15 mins read
