US Chart Pack US Chart Pack (Apr. 2025) We are assuming that the 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs becomes permanent, keeping tariffs at 10% for most countries except China which will face a steeper 60% levy. If Congress quickly redirects... 23rd April 2025 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update PMIs point to stagflationary impact of tariffs The latest flash PMIs suggest that tariffs and trade policy uncertainty weighed on activity and confidence in most DMs at the start of Q2 and boosted price pressures in the US. 23rd April 2025 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Flash PMIs (Apr. 2025) The marked fall in the composite PMI in April raises the chances that the uncertainty stemming from the US tariffs chaos will be a bigger drag on the UK economy than we previously anticipated. That... 23rd April 2025 · 3 mins read
Africa Rapid Response South Africa Consumer Prices (Mar' 25.) The larger-than-expected fall in South Africa’s headline inflation rate to 2.7% y/y in March will give the Reserve Bank more confidence that its easing cycle can resume. We expect a 25bp reduction to... 23rd April 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (April 2025) April’s euro-zone flash PMIs suggest that the immediate damage to production from US trade policy has been limited so far. But firms reported some front-loading of orders, so output might take a... 23rd April 2025 · 2 mins read
Japan Economics Update Trade war not weighing on business confidence The available business surveys show that confidence hasn’t weakened after Liberation Day. However, with price pressures coming off the boil, the Bank of Japan will continue to tighten policy only... 23rd April 2025 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Flash PMIs (Apr. 2025) 23rd April 2025 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt’s interest rate cuts have a lot further to go The Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) decided to cut interest rates on Thursday and we think monetary conditions will be loosened a lot further than most expect over the course of this year. That said... 22nd April 2025 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Canada Weekly: Bank holds off on further loosening awaiting trade clarity While the Bank of Canada held rates steady at 2.75% this week - despite markets pricing in roughly 50% odds of a 25bp cut - it balanced this out by striking a mostly dovish tone in its communications... 17th April 2025 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Europe Weekly: ECB; pharma tariff front-running; France’s budget This week brought some evidence that front-running US tariffs boosted euro-zone industrial production in Q1, but this effect will of course be “transitory”. Meanwhile, statements from France’s finance... 17th April 2025 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Update ECB leaning towards further rate cuts The ECB’s decision to cut its deposit rate from 2.5% to 2.25% today was expected. And the monetary policy statement sent a clear signal that the Bank will cut rates further to counter the impact of... 17th April 2025 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Africa Weekly: SARB’s Monetary Policy Review, Nigeria Inflation The SARB’s Monetary Policy Review published this week set out plenty of upside risks to inflation, but it looks like some of the risks from VAT hikes and tariffs have diminished. With inflation likely... 17th April 2025 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Weekly UK Weekly: It’s no longer all about services CPI inflation We’ve become more convinced that the new US tariff regime will reduce inflation in the UK, not least because there are some early signs that goods originally destined for the US are being “dumped” in... 17th April 2025 · 7 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly ANZ Weekly: RBA won’t cut nearly as far as the RBNZ Markets remain optimistic that the RBA will cut its cash rate from 4.1% at present to below 3% by year-end. But with the labour market still tight and activity starting to rebound, we're sticking to... 17th April 2025 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response New Zealand Consumer Prices (Q1 2025) 17th April 2025 · 2 mins read
