Europe Rapid Response EC Survey (April 2025) The ESI for April point to a small hit to the euro-zone from US tariffs in April and suggest that growth remained quite weak. With the drag from tariffs set to intensify, we expect euro-zone GDP to... 29th April 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response CEE Economic Sentiment Indicators (Apr.) The European Commission's Economic Sentiment Indicators for Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) provide a tentative sign that the impact of US tariffs on the region has been fairly contained so far. The... 29th April 2025 · 1 min read
Europe Rapid Response Spain & Sweden GDP (Q1) Spain’s rapid economic growth (+0.6% q/q in Q1) is likely to continue for some time yet, despite trade uncertainty. While consumption and government spending were weaker than expected in Q1, we think... 29th April 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Emerging Markets Chart Pack (Apr. 2025) US import tariffs have largely focused on China. For some EMs (such as India and South East Asia), this creates near-term opportunities to take US market share from China. But there will be offsetting... 28th April 2025 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Is Japan’s rent inflation about to take off? Our base case is that faster growth in household incomes will result in the recent pick-up in rent inflation broadening from major cities to the rest of the country. However, there’s a risk that... 28th April 2025 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Africa Weekly: South Africa VAT hike scrapped, Zambia debt talks South Africa’s 2025 budget took a vital step forward after the Treasury scrapped its proposed VAT hike this week. This, the DA's recommitment to the GNU and the weaker-than expected inflation figures... 25th April 2025 · 5 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Brazil IPCA-15 (Apr. 2025) The further rise in Brazil’s headline inflation rate to 5.5% y/y in the first half of April means that Copom will press ahead with a 50bp hike in the Selic rate at its next meeting in early May. But... 25th April 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Europe Weekly: Tariffs may cause EZ GDP to flatline in Q2 and Q3 Business surveys for April suggest that US tariffs have not done much damage in the euro-zone so far. But we think there will be a noticeable impact in the coming months and have reduced our forecast... 25th April 2025 · 9 mins read
UK Economics Weekly UK Weekly: Are the markets expecting too many rate cuts? While the deteriorating outlook for activity increases the chances of the Bank of England continuing to cut interest rates at its recent pace of one 25 basis point cut every quarter, which translates... 25th April 2025 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly ANZ Weekly: PMI data suggest limited impact from tariff turmoil Australia's Flash PMIs suggest that the initial impact of global trade tensions has been modest, with output remaining firmly in expansionary territory in April. What's more, with domestic demand... 25th April 2025 · 5 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Japan Weekly: Strong inflation will prompt further policy tightening At its meeting next week, the Bank of Japan will reportedly push back the timing for meeting its 2% inflation target on a sustained basis. That would be a mistake though as the fallout from global... 25th April 2025 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Emerging Europe Chart Pack (Apr. 2025) Our Emerging Europe Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The economies of Central and Eastern Europe are generally less exposed to higher US... 24th April 2025 · 1 min read
Global Economics Chart Pack Global Economics Chart Pack (April 2025) The latest data suggest that the world economy got off to a weak start in 2025 even before most tariffs were implemented. While tariff front-running provided a boost to global industrial activity and... 24th April 2025 · 1 min read
Latin America Rapid Response Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (Apr.) The rise in Mexico’s headline inflation rate in the first half of April, to 4.0% y/y, is unlikely to shift Banxico’s focus away from the weakness of the economy and we expect it to deliver another... 24th April 2025 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack ANZ Chart Pack (Apr. 2025) Our ANZ Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. At first glance, Australia and New Zealand should be fairly insulated from the brunt of the US’s... 24th April 2025 · 1 min read
