Europe Economics Update Norges Bank to become more hawkish Norges Bank signalled in January that a rate cut was likely at its meeting next week, but we now think it will leave the policy rate unchanged at 4.5%. While we still suspect that it will lower... 20th March 2025 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economic Outlook Latin America Outlook: Tariffs not the only headwind Mexico is one of the most vulnerable countries to US import tariffs and, at best, the economy will just about eke out positive growth this year. More sweeping tariffs than we have embedded in our... 20th March 2025 · 21 mins read
US Chart Pack US Chart Pack (Mar. 2025) A large drag from net trade will likely tip GDP growth into negative territory this quarter but we should see a rebound in Q2. Nonetheless, we expect quarterly growth to be weaker this year on average... 20th March 2025 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update What next for inflation and interest rates in Brazil? Brazil’s inflation outlook appears increasingly worrying, and the headline rate is likely to hit around 6% y/y by year-end, which is a bit higher than most expect. That’s likely to trigger a few more... 20th March 2025 · 4 mins read
India Chart Pack India Chart Pack (March 2025) India’s economy is emerging from its recent soft patch. Headline CPI inflation should remain close to the RBI’s 4% target over the coming months, enabling the central bank to continue easing monetary... 20th March 2025 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Lower services inflation to prompt more ECB rate cuts Euro-zone services inflation fell to a 10-month low in February and leading indicators point to further declines in the coming months. We think this will prompt the ECB to cut interest rates at its... 19th March 2025 · 2 mins read
Africa Rapid Response South Africa Consumer Prices (Feb '25.) The weaker-than-expected South African inflation figure for February, of 3.2% y/y, keeps the door open for the Reserve Bank to lower the repo rate by 25bp (to 7.25%) at its meeting tomorrow. 19th March 2025 · 2 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Consumer Prices (Feb. 2025) The large upside surprise to CPI inflation in February, together with another set of above-target consistent gains in CPI-trim and CPI-median, reduces the chance of the Bank of Canada cutting interest... 18th March 2025 · 3 mins read
China Economics Update Overcapacity to keep China in deflation Deflation has reared its head again in China, underscoring the problem of persistent supply and demand imbalances. The limited extra support for consumption outlined at the National People’s Congress... 18th March 2025 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Peru: slowing but still a regional outperformer Peru’s economy grew strongly in 2024 but we think that a combination of domestic and external headwinds will cause growth to slow by more than most expect over the coming years. But it is still likely... 17th March 2025 · 4 mins read
Japan Economic Outlook Japan Outlook: Tightening cycle has much further to run While trade tensions create downside risks, we expect GDP growth to be around trend this year. And following another strong showing in this year’s spring wage negotiations, wage growth will remain... 17th March 2025 · 18 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Africa Weekly: SA’s Budget compromise, metals tariff concerns South Africa’s budget was finally delivered this week – but without the support of the ANC’s coalition partner, the DA. We suspect some form of compromise will be reached between the two parties to... 14th March 2025 · 7 mins read
UK Economics Weekly UK Weekly: Public sector productivity, the BoE and tariffs (again) The slump in overall productivity last year (and the ongoing weakness in public sector productivity) suggests that at least some of the weakness in activity is probably due to lower supply as well as... 14th March 2025 · 7 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Latin America Weekly: Copom’s conundrum, Argentina & the IMF Figures out this week underscored the strength of inflation in Brazil, but we think the weakness in the latest economic activity might just be enough to prompt Copom to make the 100bp hike (to 14.25%)... 14th March 2025 · 7 mins read
