Romania’s fiscal tightening measures will add to the country’s inflation problem in the near term, and we’ve significantly revised up our CPI forecast over the next year. While the consensus view is that interest rates will be lowered by 25-50bp by the end of this year, we think easing is likely to be delayed until 2026. Meanwhile, US President Trump said he plans to make a “major statement” on Russia next Monday and his latest comments suggest he may be leaning closer to imposing higher tariffs on countries importing Russia oil.
We’ll be discussing Turkey’s macroeconomic stabilisation programme in a 20-minute Drop-In on 22nd July at 11.00am BST. Register here.
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