Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia's public sector adding to inflationary pressures Australia’s public sector can’t be blamed for the renewed acceleration in inflation across the second half of last year. But the inexorable surge in public spending in recent years is a key reason why... 4th March 2026 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update The effects of surging energy prices on global growth and rates A prolonged conflict in the Middle East pushing oil to $90-100pb for a sustained period would be a significant headwind for the global economy. Importers such as the euro-zone would be hit hardest... 3rd March 2026 · 5 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone HICP (February 2026) February’s jump in core inflation, together with the increases in oil and gas prices since the weekend, reduce the chance of the ECB cutting interest rates this year. But as things stand, we don’t... 3rd March 2026 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Update BoE particularly sensitive to energy price risks With actual CPI inflation and inflation expectations both still above target-consistent rates, the Bank of England is likely to be more sensitive to the upside risks to inflation caused by the recent... 2nd March 2026 · 4 mins read
Asia Economics Update The Iran shock and Asia As net energy importers, most economies in Asia are worse off and facing higher inflation as a result of the attacks on Iran. But oil prices would have to rise much further than they have so far – to... 2nd March 2026 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Scenarios for a post-Khamenei Iran The death of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in US and Israeli air strikes on Saturday has created enormous uncertainty about Iran’s political future, but the path that Iran takes will have... 2nd March 2026 · 8 mins read
Europe Economics Update How the Iran shock may affect the euro-zone The jump in energy prices since the weekend’s military attacks is a mild stagflationary shock for the euro-zone. If the increase is sustained, it would add around 0.3 percentage points to inflation... 2nd March 2026 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Update The consequences of the Middle East conflict The global economic impact of conflict in the Middle East will hinge on its effect on energy markets. If oil stays near $70-$80 per barrel, DM inflation will be only about 0.2-0.3 percentage points... 2nd March 2026 · 8 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Some positive signs despite decline in GDP The 0.6% annualised contraction in fourth-quarter GDP stole the headlines this week but the details were arguably much more encouraging than the third quarter, when GDP rose by 2.4%. Thanks partly to... 2nd March 2026 · 4 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly South Africa Budget, Kenya’s monetary easing cycle South Africa's government opted – as we expected - to use its 2026 Budget to give away its recent revenue windfall. That it was able to do so reflects the remarkable turnaround in the public finances... 27th February 2026 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Latest US tariffs, Germany’s recovery Following last week’s Supreme Court decision, we think policymakers on both sides of the Atlantic will aim to keep tariff rates close to the levels agreed last year. So our base case is that tariff... 27th February 2026 · 6 mins read
US Rapid Response US Producer Prices (Jan 2026) The 0.5% m/m increase in final demand PPI in January is another illustration that elevated price inflation remains a threat. Excluding food and energy prices, which were pulled down by a 5.5% m/m... 27th February 2026 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response EZ national inflation data (February) National inflation data released so far suggest that euro-zone headline inflation rose in February and that the core and services rate s were little changed. That is unlikely to change the ECBs... 27th February 2026 · 2 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Brazil IPCA-15 (Feb. 2026) The smaller-than-expected fall in inflation in Brazil to 4.1%y/y in the first half of February shouldn’t prevent the central bank from kicking off its easing cycle next month. But it does mean that... 27th February 2026 · 2 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Case for near-term rate hike strengthening While the escalating tensions between China and Japan will provide a small drag on output this quarter, the January activity data were encouraging and suggest that GDP growth will pick up this quarter... 27th February 2026 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Aussie firms on capex spree, Ardern joins Kiwi exodus The evidence that the Australian economy is operating with excess demand continues to pile up. We learnt this week that private capex growth surged to a two-year high in Q4. Moreover, with firms... 27th February 2026 · 5 mins read
