Japan Rapid Response

Japan Tankan (Q3 26)

The Q3 Tankan survey showed that overall business conditions were the most favourable in decades, which should encourage the Bank of Japan to keep tightening policy at a faster pace

1st October 2026 · 2 mins read

Canada Economic Outlook

Downside growth risks to limit rate hikes

Trade uncertainty and lower immigration will limit GDP growth to 1.5% next year, keeping core inflation from drifting too far back above target. Accordingly, the Bank of Canada will only hike twice...

30th September 2026 · 14 mins read

US Rapid Response

US Personal Income & Spending (Aug. 2026)

The data dump today shows that core price pressures are slightly less firm than feared and provides some support to our view that the Fed will pause in October. Nonetheless, with economic activity...

30th September 2026 · 3 mins read

Global Economic Outlook

Weathering the energy shock

We expect the global economy to remain resilient in the face of the energy shock. In Asia, many governments will continue to shield their economies from the worst of higher energy prices. In most DMs...

30th September 2026 · 46 mins read

Europe Rapid Response

Euro-zone National HICP (September 2026)

Data released for Germany, France, Italy and Spain point to an increase in euro-zone headline inflation from 3.2% in August to 3.7% in September. They also suggest that the indirect effects of higher...

30th September 2026 · 2 mins read

RBI Watch

RBI poised to kick off hiking cycle

The consensus has come around to our view that the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) will hike the repo rate by 25bp to 5.50% at the conclusion of the upcoming MPC meeting on Wednesday 7th October. After...

30th September 2026 · 7 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Poland Flash CPI (Sep. 2026)

The sharp rise in headline inflation in Poland to 4.0% y/y this month, from 3.4% y/y in August, was driven by food and energy. As a result, we don’t think the MPC will shift towards rate hikes at its...

30th September 2026 · 2 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Update

Public sector still not providing helping hand to RBA

The public sector has reined in its profligate tendencies ever so slightly in recent quarters, but the 2026/27 state and federal Budgets point to continued strong growth in government spending. That...

30th September 2026 · 3 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response

Australia Consumer Prices (Aug. 26)

Measures of core inflation didn’t strengthen any further in August, supporting our view that the RBA’s tightening cycle is likely at an end.

30th September 2026 · 2 mins read

Asia Economic Outlook

AI boosting Asian growth, but support will fade

Booming exports of AI-related products have helped offset the drag from higher energy prices and should continue to support growth across most of Asia in the near term. The AI boom is not feeding...

29th September 2026 · 25 mins read

Latin America Chart Pack

Latin America Chart Pack (September 2026)

Our Latin America Economics Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The recent soft batch of activity data across many parts of Latin America is...

29th September 2026 · 1 min read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Update

RBA keeps its options open after hawkish hike

The RBA hiked rates as expected and kept the door open to further tightening. We still think the cash rate has peaked, as the cooling labour market should help reduce capacity pressures. However, the...

29th September 2026 · 3 mins read

Africa Chart Pack

Africa Chart Pack (Sep. 26)

Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa should remain resilient despite high energy prices and tighter global financial conditions. We’re optimistic relative to the consensus on growth in much of the region...

28th September 2026 · 0 mins read

Global Economics Chart Pack

Global Economics Chart Pack (September 2026)

The world economy has gained momentum in Q3. Business surveys have improved, trade is booming amid the AI buildout, and consumption has been resilient to high energy prices. Meanwhile, jobs growth has...

28th September 2026 · 1 min read

Latin America Economics Update

How would a diesel export ban affect Latin America?

A US diesel export ban would be particularly disruptive for Latin America as the region is reliant on the US for supply and has large diesel-intensive sectors, including road freight transport...

28th September 2026 · 3 mins read