Global Inflation Watch Global inflation to undershoot consensus forecasts Global inflation looks set to undershoot consensus forecasts, amid falling commodity prices, cooling labour markets, and an absence of inflationary spillovers from tariffs. In the US, we expect core... 3rd February 2026 · 18 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA raises rates, leaves door ajar for further hikes The Reserve Bank of Australia struck an unambiguously hawkish tone when it raised rates by 25bp at its meeting today. Our base case is that the Bank will deliver only one more 25bp hike this year, but... 3rd February 2026 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Which EMs could be the next to hike? We doubt that any other major EM central bank will imminently follow Colombia in kicking off hiking cycles, although a strengthening of inflation pressures in parts of Central Europe (Czechia and... 2nd February 2026 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Chart Pack UK Economics Chart Pack (Feb. 2026) The data published since the start of the year suggest economic activity and price pressures have strengthened. But we still expect annual GDP growth to slow and the weak labour market to weigh on... 2nd February 2026 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Emerging Europe Manufacturing PMIs (Jan.) The manufacturing PMIs out of Emerging Europe all came in below 50 which suggests that industrial sectors across the region started the year on the back foot. We think that demand conditions in... 2nd February 2026 · 2 mins read
China Chart Pack China Chart Pack (Jan 26) China’s growth slowed in December, with the economy expanding by just 3.1% in 2025. Export growth and fiscal support will continue to provide a significant (albeit smaller) prop to the economy over... 30th January 2026 · 0 mins read
US Rapid Response US PPI (Dec 2025) The 0.5% m/m increase in final demand PPI in December was mainly due to an increase in trade services margins. Excluding food, energy and trade services, core PPI increased by 0.4% m/m last month... 30th January 2026 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly French bond rally looks overdone The French government's survival after bypassing parliament to implement the 2026 budget has done nothing to improve the country's long-term debt dynamics. So we think that the recent narrowing of... 30th January 2026 · 8 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Stronger pound helpful for BoE, but rising oil price is a risk While the pound's recent appreciation against the US dollar doesn't materially change the outlook for UK CPI inflation, the Bank of England will welcome a bit more disinflationary pressure. But one... 30th January 2026 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Persistence in shelter inflation will keep RBA on edge With inflation once again surprising to the upside of its expectations, the Reserve Bank of Australia will almost certainly raise interest rates at its meeting next week. Moreover, much to the Bank’s... 29th January 2026 · 4 mins read
Africa Economics Update SARB’s pause should not last long The South African Reserve Bank paused its easing cycle as we expected today, but the commentary was dovish suggesting even if positive shocks to inflation do emerge the path of interest rates will... 29th January 2026 · 3 mins read
ECB Watch ECB to leave policy unchanged again Nobody is expecting the ECB to change its policy stance or written guidance next week so the focus will be on the press conference. Christine Lagarde will be asked about the recent tariff threats... 29th January 2026 · 7 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack (Jan. 2026) Our Middle East & North Africa Economics Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The Middle East and North Africa is set for the fastest pace of GDP... 29th January 2026 · 1 min read
RBI Watch RBI to deliver one final rate cut next week The weakness of inflation over recent months continues to outweigh concerns about currency depreciation and leaves the door open for the RBI to deliver one final rate cut at the conclusion of the MPC... 29th January 2026 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response CEE Economic Sentiment Indicators (Jan. 2026) The European Commission’s Economic Sentiment Indicators for Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) suggest that regional GDP growth held steady at around 2.5% y/y at the start of 2026, but divergence in... 29th January 2026 · 2 mins read
