US Economics Weekly US Weekly: Trump folds first hand, doubles down on second As we suggested in our Update from last weekend, it was only a matter of time before the increasingly adverse market reaction forced President Donald Trump to reconsider his plan to levy prohibitive... 11th April 2025 · 7 mins read
UK Economics Weekly UK Weekly: Risks tilting towards weaker GDP and faster falls in inflation The extraordinary tariff chaos over the past week and associated fallout in the financial markets have increased the chances that the damage to the UK from the US trade war will be larger and that... 11th April 2025 · 6 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Africa Weekly: Trump tariffs, oil prices, Kenya rates The direct blow to African economies from the tariffs imposed by the US should be limited, but the indirect hit will be larger if global growth weakens and financial spillovers materialise. And while... 11th April 2025 · 5 mins read
US Rapid Response US Producer Prices (Mar. 2025) Following the favourable CPI and PPI data, we estimate that the core PCE deflator rose by a below-target 0.05% m/m in March. Even taking into account a likely upward revision to the rise in February... 11th April 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Europe Weekly: The fallout from tariff mayhem in EZ markets This week’s historic changes in US trade policy and the associated market fallout point in the direction of a weaker euro-zone economy, lower inflation and looser monetary policy. While bond spreads... 11th April 2025 · 5 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Brazil IPCA (Mar. 2025) The jump in Brazil’s headline inflation rate to 5.5% y/y in March looks set to be followed by further increases towards 6% y/y over the coming months. Copom will almost certainly deliver a bit more... 11th April 2025 · 2 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Japan Weekly: What would it take to scupper further BoJ rate hikes? The Bank of Japan will keep policy settings unchanged for a few months to assess the fallout from the trade war. However, our base case is that the trade war won’t provide a large enough drag on... 11th April 2025 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Update Risks tilted towards faster falls in UK inflation and interest rates Despite President Trump’s latest decision to pause the US’s “reciprocal” tariff regime for 90 days, there is still a real risk that the second-order effects of higher US tariffs on the UK economy are... 10th April 2025 · 4 mins read
Canada Economics Update Canada set for sustained period of weak growth We have updated our forecasts for Canada to account for the latest changes in US trade policy. A recession should be avoided, but the harsh tariffs on the vehicle sector and uncertainty about the... 10th April 2025 · 3 mins read
US Rapid Response US Consumer Prices (Mar. 2025) The unexpectedly small 0.06% m/m rise in the core CPI in March was partly due to steep falls in hotel prices and airline fares, which reflect both weakening domestic demand and the recent drop in... 10th April 2025 · 2 mins read
ECB Watch ECB Watch: Keep calm and carry on cutting Despite President Trump’s latest decision to pause the additional tariffs for 90 days, his farcical on-and-off tariff announcements will still have a big impact on the world economy. We are not... 10th April 2025 · 7 mins read
Europe Economics Update Trade war will be disinflationary for the euro-zone Despite the 90-day pause to the US’s “reciprocal” tariff regime, ECB policymakers will still need to assess the impact of higher US tariffs for euro-zone inflation. Some have argued that tariffs could... 10th April 2025 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response Egypt Consumer Prices (Mar. 2025) Egypt’s headline inflation rate increased to 13.6% y/y in March, but we still expect policymakers at the Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) to deliver the first interest rate cut in nearly five years at the... 10th April 2025 · 2 mins read
China Rapid Response China Consumer & Producer Prices (Mar. 2025) Deflationary pressures persisted last month and will almost certainly deepen over the coming quarters as it becomes more difficult for Chinese firms to export their excess supply. 10th April 2025 (Updated 10th April 2025) · 2 mins read
Canada Chart Pack Canada Chart Pack (Apr. 2025) While Canada escaped “liberation day” relatively unscathed, the imposition of US tariffs and risk of more to come will still weigh on exports, consumer confidence and investment. With immigration also... 9th April 2025 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Europe Chart Pack (Apr. 2025) Higher US tariffs will be a substantial drag on the euro-zone economy this year. Looser fiscal policy in Germany will give a small boost in 2026, but overall we expect the euro-zone to grow fairly... 9th April 2025 · 1 min read
