US Rapid Response US ISM Services Index (Aug 2026) The rise in the ISM services index in August suggests that the prior strength in July was not only due to temporary effects from the FIFA World Cup, and leaves our weighted-average ISM index... 3rd September 2026 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Recovery in the Gulf strengthens The whole economy PMIs for August, released today, suggest that a recovery in the Gulf’s non-oil sectors is taking hold. The UAE and Kuwait saw the strongest increases, and non-oil activity in Saudi... 3rd September 2026 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Chart Pack UK Economics Chart Pack (Sep. 2026) With inflation and the resulting drag on households’ real incomes yet to peak, we doubt the surprising resilience of activity in the first half of the year will continue in the second half of this... 3rd September 2026 · 1 min read
ECB Watch ECB to hike again, growing chance of more to come The ECB Governing Council looks certain to raise its deposit rate from 2.25% to 2.5% next week. Further ahead, the outlook is becoming harder to call given the recent rise in energy prices. We are not... 3rd September 2026 · 7 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBNZ tones down its hawkish bias a touch The Reserve Bank of New Zealand hiked rates as expected, but struck a more balanced tone on the risks to its outlook. Although another hike this year seems likely, we continue to expect the OCR to... 2nd September 2026 · 3 mins read
US Rapid Response US ISM Manufacturing (Aug 2026) The ISM Manufacturing survey pours some cold water on the idea that the manufacturing sector is beginning to boom, but it does at least remain consistent with growing output. The commentary... 1st September 2026 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone HICP (August 2026) August’s energy-led rise in euro-zone HICP inflation might bolster the case for a rate hike next week, but the ECB should be reassured by the absence of indirect and second-round effects. 1st September 2026 · 2 mins read
US Economics Weekly Warsh strikes a hawkish tone at Jackson Hole Kevin Warsh was uncharacteristically loose-lipped in his keynote address at the 2026 Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium , unequivocally indicating that he would be prepared to tighten policy if... 28th August 2026 · 6 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Naira rally won’t last, Strong SA Data, Zambia Inflation High commodity prices have continued to support the Nigerian naira, but we don’t think this will continue. For the Zambian kwacha, heightened post-election political uncertainty is a key risk that... 28th August 2026 · 5 mins read
US Rapid Response Chair Warsh at Jackson Hole & Preliminary Benchmark Revisions Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium delivered a far clearer – and hawkish – message than his last press conference appearance, with Warsh arguing that the recent softer price... 28th August 2026 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly September ECB hike looks nailed on The rise in natural gas prices in recent weeks, together with the continued strength of the euro-zone economy, mean that a September ECB hike now looks nailed on. Decisions thereafter will depend on... 28th August 2026 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Food inflation will soon be back on the menu The recent marked easing in food price inflation won’t last long as it’s only a matter of time before the rise in global agricultural commodity prices feeds into the prices on the supermarket shelves... 28th August 2026 · 4 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone EC Survey (August 2026) August’s euro-zone Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) suggests that the economy has continued to expand despite higher energy prices and extreme summer heat. And the selling price expectations indices... 28th August 2026 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Rate cut windows (re-)open in Turkey and Hungary Softer inflation suggests that there’s more scope for monetary easing this year in Hungary and Turkey than we had previously thought, and we have pencilled in more rate cuts into our profile. In... 28th August 2026 · 6 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly BoJ unwilling to toe government’s line The regular budget for FY2027 will probably include the largest increase in spending since the early 1990s. However, this partly reflects the government’s aim to incorporate spending previously... 28th August 2026 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly The risk of another RBA rate hike is growing This week’s firm inflation and household spending data have raised the risk that the RBA’s tightening cycle is not yet over. But the investment picture is more mixed, while softer labour and housing... 28th August 2026 · 5 mins read
