RBA Watch RBA’s next move will be down, but not until H2 2027 We expect the RBA to leave rates on hold at its August meeting. Although the Bank is likely to continue talking tough on inflation for a while, we don’t think it will go so far as to raise rates again... 4th August 2026 · 8 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack ANZ Chart Pack (August 2026) Our ANZ Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Data released over the past month showed that Australia's labour market, housing market, and... 3rd August 2026 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Housing downturn will prevent further rate hikes Australian house prices kept falling at a rapid pace in July. With affordability still very stretched and leading indicators flashing red, the downturn has much further to run. 3rd August 2026 · 3 mins read
US Economics Weekly Economy continues to show solid momentum Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh’s muddled July FOMC press conference and the resulting gyrations in financial markets dominated this week’s headlines, diverting attention from data suggesting that... 31st July 2026 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Probability of BoE interest rate hikes may be starting to shrink Despite the Bank of England maintaining its hiking bias on Thursday, it feels as though the Bank is edging further away from interest rate hikes as it comes round to our view that the weak labour... 31st July 2026 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Germany: upward revisions but still looking sickly Revisions to Germany’s GDP data suggest that the economy did a little better than previously thought since 2024. But it has still been the clear “sick man of Europe” in the 2020s and its long term... 31st July 2026 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Regional rightward shift, Copom’s final rate cut? Keiko Fujimori's initial steps as Peru’s president point towards improved relations with the US and tighter fiscal policy, but whether she can achieve the latter will depend on her ability to build... 31st July 2026 · 6 mins read
India Economics Weekly Monsoon risks to inflation remain significant After the driest June in over a decade, India has received healthier monsoon rainfall in July, while the government has ample stocks of key staples such as rice. But the inflation risk remains... 31st July 2026 · 3 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone HICP (July 2026) The small increase in headline inflation in July was largely due to higher energy inflation and is unlikely to change policymakers’ thinking significantly ahead of the ECB’s September policy meeting. 31st July 2026 · 2 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Sales tax suspension adds to fiscal concerns While the government’s decision to press ahead with lowering the sales tax on food next year will reduce headline inflation sharply, we don’t think it will have major consequences for the outlook for... 31st July 2026 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA is done hiking rates Underlying inflation in Q2 didn’t pick up nearly as much as the RBA had expected. Although the path to disinflation is likely to be bumpy, we think the Bank will judge policy sufficiently restrictive... 31st July 2026 · 5 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Japan Activity, Labour Market (Jun. 26) & Tokyo CPI (July 26) The June activity data suggest that GDP rose at a robust pace last quarter, while there are early signs that higher energy costs are feeding through to consumer prices. 31st July 2026 · 2 mins read
China Chart Pack China Chart Pack (July 26) At around 3.2% y/y, China’s growth in Q2 was over 1%-pt weaker than official figures suggest. But growth has held steady in the face of the Iran war. Exports have continued to surge, largely driven by... 30th July 2026 · 0 mins read
Global Economics Chart Pack Global Economics Chart Pack (July 2026) Global growth appears to be regaining momentum, led by the US among advanced economies. We expect this trend to continue, supported by strong AI investment despite the risk posed by renewed... 30th July 2026 · 1 min read
US Rapid Response US Personal Income & Spending (Jun. 2026) The smaller-than-expected 0.13% m/m gain in the core PCE deflator in June will be a welcome sight for Fed officials, though that still only translated to small decline in the annual rate to 3.3%, from... 30th July 2026 · 2 mins read
