UK Economics Update April’s rise in minimum wage will keep the BoE on alert We doubt the big rise in the minimum wage in April will prevent wage growth from falling faster this year than the Bank of England has forecast. But the clear risk is that it supports wage growth and... 11th March 2024 · 5 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Norway CPI (February 2024) February’s inflation data from Norway strengthen our conviction that Norges Bank will cut interest rates much sooner than its forecasts suggest. 11th March 2024 · 1 min read
China Rapid Response China Consumer & Producer Prices (Feb. 2024) CPI inflation turned positive last month for the first time since September, thanks to temporary factors such as the volatility in food and tourism prices around Lunar New Year. But persistent... 11th March 2024 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly South Africa metals and current account, Ghana debt Reports suggest that metal producers in South Africa are contemplating cost-cutting measures on the back of the slump in global metals prices, presenting another headwind to the modest pick-up in... 8th March 2024 · 6 mins read
US Economics Weekly Falling inflation still likely to prompt Fed cuts soon Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s congressional testimony struck a notably less hawkish tone than we have heard recently from some of his colleagues. And with the economic data this week providing little... 8th March 2024 · 8 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Sheinbaum’s 100 commitments, inflation worries The recently-unveiled policy plans from Claudia Sheinbaum, the frontrunner to become Mexico’s next president, are aimed at building on President López Obrador’s legacy, but her proposals are likely to... 8th March 2024 · 7 mins read
China Economics Weekly New productive buzzwords China’s leadership is increasingly talking about “New Productive Forces” as the key to the country’s future economic success – harnessing them was the first Major Task for 2024 in the government Work... 8th March 2024 · 7 mins read
UK Economics Weekly BoE’s inflation forecast looks like an outlier The Office for Budget Responsibility’s big downward revision to its CPI inflation forecast in this week’s Budget brings it more into line with our forecast for inflation to fall below the 2.0% target... 8th March 2024 · 9 mins read
Emerging Asia Economics Weekly Korea: resilient activity data, sticky inflation We are sticking with our view that the Bank of Korea will cut interest rates at its June meeting, but the recent resilience of the economy and the stickiness of inflation means the risks are skewed to... 8th March 2024 · 5 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Shunto bonanza opens door to March rate hike Developments over the past week have increased the chances that the Bank of Japan will end negative rates in March rather than our current forecast of April. Meanwhile, with childbirths hitting a... 8th March 2024 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Egypt’s Super Wednesday pulls it back from the brink Egypt finally made the long-awaited shift back toward economic orthodoxy on Wednesday with the pound being devalued, interest rates hiked aggressively, and a new and enhanced IMF deal agreed. There... 7th March 2024 · 8 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Feb. 2024) The drop back in Mexico’s headline inflation rate to 4.4% y/y in February, alongside the weakness of the latest activity data, leaves Banxico on course to cut interest rates at its next Board meeting... 7th March 2024 · 2 mins read
Japan Economic Outlook Negative rates will end but tightening cycle unlikely The economy isn’t in recession but GDP growth will slow towards trend this year. With a virtuous cycle between wages and prices now in full swing, we expect the Bank of Japan to end negative rates at... 6th March 2024 · 17 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response PMIs (Feb. 2024) February’s batch of PMIs from the Middle East and North Africa continued to show that the Gulf’s private non-oil sectors have started 2024 on a strong footing. But Egypt’s economy appears to be... 5th March 2024 · 2 mins read