Africa Economics Update SARB signals high bar for additional rate hikes The South African Reserve Bank’s (SARB’s) surprise decision to keep its policy rate on hold (rather than hike) today suggests that the MPC isn’t as hawkish as we had thought, and our base case now is... 23rd July 2026 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update Core goods inflation unlikely to fully normalise The PPI and import price data suggest that the AI buildout and supply constraints from the war in Iran will prevent core goods inflation from fully normalising, even as tariff effects ease. 22nd July 2026 · 2 mins read
India Chart Pack India Chart Pack (July 2026) The latest activity data suggest that India’s economy is slowing, but we think GDP growth should average 6.5% in 2026-27 - an enviable rate by global standards. Rainfall in the early stages of the... 22nd July 2026 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Poland: strong growth reduces rate cut prospects The latest activity data suggest that Poland’s economy continued to grow rapidly in Q2, supporting our view that the economy will grow by more than 3% over 2026-27. The sharp drop in headline... 22nd July 2026 · 2 mins read
Africa Rapid Response South Africa Consumer Prices (Jun. 26) The larger-than-expected rise in South African inflation, to 5.0% y/y in June, alongside the recent rise in oil prices, increases the risk that the Reserve Bank (SARB) will follow up the 25bp hike... 22nd July 2026 · 2 mins read
Japan Chart Pack Japan Chart Pack (Jul. 26) Our Japan Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. GDP growth seems to have accelerated after the start of the Iran War and there are early signs that... 22nd July 2026 · 1 min read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Consumer Prices (Jun. 2026) The easing in CPI inflation from 2.8% in May to a 14-month low of 2.6% in June is unlikely to last long. The lagged effect from high energy prices will probably lift inflation above 3.0% in September... 22nd July 2026 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update Key lessons from the Iran war so far The Iran war has (already) lasted longer than we initially assumed in our base case but the disruption to energy markets and hit to the global economy have been more limited. This resilience will be... 21st July 2026 · 8 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Emerging Markets Chart Pack (July 2026) The renewed US-Iran attacks and closure of the Strait of Hormuz will, if sustained, prolong recessions in the Gulf economies and weigh on activity in energy-importing EMs. But continued strong demand... 21st July 2026 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Canada Chart Pack (Jul. 2026) The outlook hinges on the outcome of CUSMA negotiations, with the Trump administration’s latest 50% tariff announcement underscoring the risks. For now, we still think an agreement will be reached at... 21st July 2026 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response New Zealand Consumer Prices (Q2 2026) The pickup in price pressures last quarter was not particularly broad-based, with measures of core inflation still well behaved. Accordingly, we don’t think there’s a strong case for the RBNZ to hike... 21st July 2026 · 2 mins read
US Chart Pack US Chart Pack (July 2026) We expect GDP growth to average 2.2% and 2.3% this year and next, driven by strong AI-investment and a rebound in consumption growth. The labour market appears to be stabilising, and we expect the... 20th July 2026 · 1 min read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Consumer Prices (Jun. 2026) The Bank of Canada will be pleased to see core price pressures remained subdued last month, even with some FIFA World Cup-related boost. With Governing Council reiterating their willingness to look... 20th July 2026 · 2 mins read
US Economics Weekly A month of soft inflation won’t assuage Fed’s concerns The softer-than-expected June CPI and PPI prints don't change the fact that price pressures remain elevated. Accordingly, we're sticking with our view that the Fed will hike interest rates as soon as... 17th July 2026 · 4 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly South Africa and Nigeria rate meetings, Angola’s large cut South Africa’s central bank is likely to hike rates again next week, but with inflation stabilising and underlying pressures relatively soft, we think this will be the last in the cycle. Nigeria... 17th July 2026 · 5 mins read
