India’s economy is emerging from its soft patch. Headline CPI inflation should remain close to the RBI’s 4% target over the coming months, enabling the central bank to continue easing monetary policy. We’re expecting a further 50bp of cuts to the repo rate (to 5.50%) in this cycle, a view that the consensus has now caught up with.
India is well placed to immediately gain market share in response to penal US tariffs on Chinese imports, and it could benefit over the medium term too.
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