RBI Watch

RBI to deliver one final rate cut next week

The weakness of inflation over recent months continues to outweigh concerns about currency depreciation and leaves the door open for the RBI to deliver one final rate cut at the conclusion of the MPC...

29th January 2026 · 6 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

CEE Economic Sentiment Indicators (Jan. 2026)

The European Commission’s Economic Sentiment Indicators for Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) suggest that regional GDP growth held steady at around 2.5% y/y at the start of 2026, but divergence in...

29th January 2026 · 2 mins read

Europe Rapid Response

Euro-zone EC Survey (January 2026)

January’s EC survey suggests that the economy got off to a fairly strong start to the year, with the services sector growing while industry continues to struggle. But the labour market has loosened...

29th January 2026 · 2 mins read

Asia Economics Update

MAS to stay on hold despite hawkish tilt

Singapore’s central bank kept monetary policy settings unchanged today but adopted a slightly more hawkish tone. While risks to the policy outlook are now skewed modestly towards tighter policy later...

29th January 2026 · 3 mins read

Africa Rapid Response

Ghana Interest Rate Announcement (Jan. 26)

28th January 2026 · 2 mins read

Global Economics Update

The macro implications of a weaker dollar

Our base case is that the recent bout of weakness in the US dollar will reverse. If it remains at its current level, the direct macro impact is likely to be small for most countries, especially...

28th January 2026 · 6 mins read

Europe Economics Update

Will the ECB respond to the rising euro?

The euro’s recent appreciation will reduce euro-zone inflation by a trivial amount, so for now the ECB is likely to do nothing to prevent it other than perhaps the mildest form of verbal intervention...

28th January 2026 · 3 mins read

RBA Watch

RBA will hike rates in February and May

The ongoing persistence in underlying inflation will persuade the Reserve Bank of Australia to reverse course on rate cuts. We expect the Bank to raise rates by 25bp at its meeting next week, followed...

28th January 2026 · 7 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response

Australia Consumer Prices (Q4 2025)

The sharper-than-expected rise in underlying inflation makes it all but certain that the Reserve Bank of Australia will raise interest rates at its meeting next week.

28th January 2026 · 2 mins read

Africa Chart Pack

Africa Chart Pack (Jan. 26)

Sub-Saharan Africa is entering one of its best periods of growth since the 2010s, propelled by better terms of trade, low inflation and loose monetary policy. Our forecasts for most countries –...

27th January 2026 · 0 mins read

Latin America Rapid Response

Brazil IPCA-15 (Jan. 2026)

The uptick in inflation in Brazil in the first half of this month, to 4.5% y/y, will probably remove any lingering expectations for an interest rate cut at tomorrow’s Copom meeting. But under the...

27th January 2026 · 2 mins read

Emerging Europe Chart Pack

Emerging Europe Chart Pack (Jan. 2026)

Our Emerging Europe Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Most economies in Central and Eastern Europe will experience stronger GDP growth in 2026...

26th January 2026 · 1 min read

Ignore the Truss comparisons – rising JGB yields reflect Japan’s new normal

Canada Economics Weekly

Business sentiment improving

While we still expect that GDP will end the year on a softer note, the latest retail sales data suggest the economy performed a bit better than we thought a week ago, and the latest business surveys...

23rd January 2026 · 6 mins read

Latin America Economics Weekly

Kast unveils his cabinet, Copom on hold next week

Chilean president-elect Kast's cabinet suggest that the new administration's key priorities will be to strengthen Chile’s public finances and deregulate the economy. We doubt that this will lead to...

23rd January 2026 · 8 mins read