Europe Economics Weekly Greenland tensions aftermath, Germany finally recovering? We think that this week's flare-up in EU-US tensions over Greenland is unlikely to have a lasting impact on the euro-zone economy. Meanwhile, data out of Germany suggest its economy may be turning a... 23rd January 2026 · 9 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK S&P Global Flash PMIs (Jan. 2026) January’s flash PMIs suggest that economic activity picked up at the start of Q1 and that inflationary pressures increased slightly. This reinforces our view that the Bank of England will keep... 23rd January 2026 · 3 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Japan Consumer Prices (December 2025) With underlying inflation price pressures remaining firm, we expect the Bank of Japan to resume its tightening cycle in the coming months. 23rd January 2026 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response New Zealand Consumer Prices (Q4) Although headline inflation picked up further in Q4, underlying inflation remains well behaved. That being the case, we still think the RBNZ will keep rates on hold for a prolonged period, whereas... 22nd January 2026 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US Personal Income & Spending (Oct. & Nov. 2025) The solid 0.3% m/m gains in real consumption in both October and November confirm that the government shutdown had very little impact on economic activity. Those gains slightly outpaced our prior... 22nd January 2026 · 3 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (Jan. 2026) The small rise in Mexican inflation, to 3.8% y/y in the first half of January supports our view that Banxico will leave its policy rate unchanged at 7.00% at its next meeting in February. 22nd January 2026 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Norges Bank Policy Announcement (January 2026) Today’s decision to leave the policy rate at 4.0% came as no surprise and the Bank’s messaging repeated that policymakers are in no hurry to lower rates further. We are forecasting a cut in June, but... 22nd January 2026 · 2 mins read
US Chart Pack US Chart Pack (Jan. 2026) We see recent strength in AI-related business investment as the start of a multi-year capex boom, driving GDP growth of 3.0% this year and 2.5% in 2027. Despite the economy running hot and labour... 21st January 2026 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Why is services inflation stickier in Europe than the US? Given comparatively weak economic conditions, it might seem surprising that services inflation has been stickier in Europe than in the US in recent months. But much of this reflects the delayed... 21st January 2026 · 5 mins read
Event Japan Drop-In: Takaichi’s election gamble – Fiscal risks, market consequences 9th February 2026, 8:00AM GMT Our Japan economists were online the day after the election to analyse the results, explore what they mean for Japan’s fiscal and monetary balance, and discuss the implications for Ja
Event Global Drop-In: Fed, ECB, and BoE update – The latest decisions and the 2026 policy outlook 5th February 2026, 3:00PM GMT What will a Fed under political fire signal at its first policy meeting of 2026?
India Chart Pack India Chart Pack (January 2026) After a very strong 2025, economic growth in India is likely to ease in 2026 in the face of punitive US tariffs. However, India will remain a relative bright spot in the global economy, thanks to... 21st January 2026 · 1 min read
Africa Rapid Response South Africa Consumer Prices (Dec. 25) The rise in South Africa’s headline inflation to 3.6% y/y in December, with core inflation picking up too, suggests that the Reserve Bank will pause its easing cycle later this month. Further out... 21st January 2026 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Consumer Prices (Dec. 2025) The rebound in CPI inflation from 3.2% in November to 3.4% in December makes it unlikely the Bank of England will cut interest rates from 3.75% on 5th February. But we still think that a fall in... 21st January 2026 · 3 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack Latin America Chart Pack (Jan. 2026) Our Latin America Economics Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Sluggish growth and target-bound inflation should give central banks room to... 20th January 2026 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Bank's surveys provide mixed messages for GDP and jobs There were some signs of life in the Bank of Canada’s latest quarterly surveys, with the pick-up in the indicator of future sales suggesting that the outlook for GDP growth is much better than the... 19th January 2026 · 3 mins read
