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Six key calls for US commercial real estate in 2023

Our key calls for 2023 highlight major shifts in the outlook for real estate. We expect all-property total returns to be negative for the first time since 2009. At a sector level, we expect retail to do best, ending industrial’s decade of dominance, while apartments will perform poorly, thanks in part to an outright fall in rents. And southern metros will continue to see the strongest rates of rental growth as inward migration drives demand for real estate in all sectors.

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