European Economics

European Chart Book

6 December, 2018

Recession risks rising in Italy

After contracting in Q3, activity surveys suggest that Italy’s economy is on the brink of recession. Indeed, the Composite PMI was unchanged at 49.3 in November, which on past form points to GDP falling by as much as 0.3%. Whether or not the economy tips into a technical recession in Q4, the underlying pace of growth is clearly very weak. And that is even before the increase in government bond yields since May has started to filter through to significantly higher borrowing costs in the private

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