Our Australia and New Zealand Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments.
The minutes of their most recent meetings revealed that the RBA and the RBNZ have both abandoned their tightening bias. However, the two central banks are likely to walk different paths when it comes to policy easing. We expect the RBNZ to cut rates in Q3, while the RBA will wait until Q4. Moreover, we think the RBNZ will loosen policy more aggressively than most are anticipating, while the RBA will have only a little room to manoeuvre. In any case, with the brunt of monetary tightening now in the rear-view mirror, green shoots have already started to emerge in both economies. We expect activity to gain further traction over the coming quarters, although growth won’t return to its pre-pandemic trend anytime soon.
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