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Good and bad news from SA, Tanzania gets IMF support

Data this week showed that South Africa recorded robust GDP growth in Q2, but there was little time to celebrate as a slump in manufacturing output in July has raised the risk of a contraction over Q3. Elsewhere, Tanzania secured financing from the IMF this in a further sign of good start by the new president, Samia Suluhu Hassan. Finally, the sharp fall in the birr this year drove Ethiopia’s inflation rate to 30.4% y/y in August. Currency weakness and the growing threat of an all-out civil war have increased the risk of a sovereign default.
CE Spotlight 2021: The Rebirth Of Inflation? We’re holding a week of online events from 27th September to accompany our special research series. Event details and registration here.
Jason Tuvey Senior Emerging Markets Economist
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More from Africa

Africa Data Response

South Africa Activity Data (Mar.)

South Africa’s activity data for March were weak and that was even before flooding in KwaZulu-Natal province dealt a fresh blow to the economy. Inflation figures released earlier today may have increased the risk of a 50bp interest rate hike tomorrow but, with the recovery likely to remain slow and bumpy, we continue to think that rates will be raised more slowly than most expect over the next couple of years.

18 May 2022

Africa Data Response

South Africa Consumer Prices (Apr.)

South Africa’s headline inflation rate remained close to the upper bound of the Reserve Bank’s 3-6% target range in April, at 5.9% y/y, and will stay there over the coming months. Tomorrow’s interest rate decision will be a close call between a 25bp (our forecast) and a 50bp hike but, given the slow and bumpy recovery, we continue to think that rates will be raised more slowly than investors expect over 2022-24.

18 May 2022

Africa Data Response

Nigeria Consumer Prices (Apr.)

Inflation in Nigeria jumped to 16.8% y/y last month and the headline rate is likely to rise further as spillovers from the war in Ukraine filter through. Pressure to tighten monetary policy is mounting but we think that MPC members will stick to their guns and keep interest rates on hold over the coming months. EM Drop-In (17th May): Do current EM debt strains point to a repeat of the kinds of crises seen in the 1980s and 1990s? Join our special briefing on EM sovereign debt risk on Tuesday. Register now.

16 May 2022

More from Jason Tuvey

Africa Data Response

South Africa Manufacturing Production (Jul.)

South Africa’s manufacturing sector suffered a larger-than-expected fall in output in July and, while more timely data point to a rebound in activity, the weakness in July has increased the chances that the economy contracts over Q3 as a whole.

9 September 2021

Africa Data Response

South Africa GDP (Q2)

South Africa’s economy grew by a better-than-expected 1.2% q/q in Q2 as strong growth in exports made up for weak domestic demand. Tighter virus restrictions and violent unrest weighed on activity at the start of Q3 and the recovery is likely to be slow going from here on. This, combined with subdued inflation, means that the central bank is likely to raise interest rates later than most currently expect.

7 September 2021

Middle East Economics Weekly

OPEC+ on track, UAE eases restrictions with Expo in sight

This month’s OPEC+ meeting passed without much fanfare as the recent rebound in oil prices prompted the group to push ahead with raising oil output, which will help to lift the Gulf economies further. Meanwhile, the further fall in virus cases in the UAE in recent weeks has prompted officials to ease restrictions as the start of the World Expo nears, but the past week has also brought a reminder that Dubai’s troubles with its large corporate debts are far from over.

2 September 2021
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