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What to expect in Sub-Saharan Africa in 2022

Sub-Saharan Africa will remain a laggard in the global recovery. The weak economic backdrop means that South Africa’s government is unlikely to stick to its austerity plans and the debt ratio will rise more quickly than most anticipate. Debt risks are also likely to build in other parts of the region. Meanwhile, Nigerian officials will probably double down on their unorthodox policies. Drop-In: Neil Shearing will host an online panel of our senior economists to answer your questions and update on macro and markets this Thursday, 13th January (11:00 ET/16:00 GMT). Register for the latest on everything from Omicron to the Fed to our key calls for 2022. Registration here.
Jason Tuvey Senior Emerging Markets Economist
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More from Africa

Africa Data Response

Nigeria Consumer Prices (Apr.)

Inflation in Nigeria jumped to 16.8% y/y last month and the headline rate is likely to rise further as spillovers from the war in Ukraine filter through. Pressure to tighten monetary policy is mounting but we think that MPC members will stick to their guns and keep interest rates on hold over the coming months. EM Drop-In (17th May): Do current EM debt strains point to a repeat of the kinds of crises seen in the 1980s and 1990s? Join our special briefing on EM sovereign debt risk on Tuesday. Register now.

16 May 2022

Africa Economics Weekly

Monetary politics in Nigeria, Ghana’s efforts to curb debt

Nigerian President Buhari’s instruction that current government officials planning to run for the country’s highest office should resign will probably leave the central bank without a governor, but this is unlikely to lead to meaningful change in monetary policy before the elections early next year. Elsewhere, the latest jump in Ghana’s inflation rate will up the pressure on the central bank to raise interest rates further. Yet, officials remain steadfast not to turn to the IMF amid rising investor concerns about the country’s debt position. EM Drop-In (17th May): Do current EM debt strains point to a repeat of the kinds of crises seen in the 1980s and 1990s? Join our special briefing on EM sovereign debt risk on Tuesday. Register now.

13 May 2022

Africa Economics Update

A primer on South Africa’s monetary policy reform

The South African Reserve Bank is set to shake up its monetary policy setup. This Update provides some clarity on what policymakers will do and why, and what it means for monetary and credit conditions. China Drop-In (12th May, 09:00 BST/16:00 SGT): Join our China and Markets economists for a 20-minute discussion about near to long-term economic challenges, from zero-COVID disruptions to US-China decoupling. Register now.

11 May 2022

More from Jason Tuvey

Emerging Europe Economics Update

First thoughts on Turkey’s FX-indexed deposit scheme

A new scheme announced by Turkey’s President Erdogan last night, which compensates holders of lira deposits for exchange rates losses, has triggered a sharp rally in the lira and will help to mitigate some of the risks that had started to crystalise in the banking sector. But the policy pushes exchange rate risks to the public finances – up till now a point of strength in the economy.

21 December 2021

Emerging Europe Economics Update

Turkey’s crisis in four charts

Following yesterday’s interest rate cut in Turkey, the lira has plunged again and is now faring worse than other Emerging Europe currencies have done during recent sudden stops. There are some signs of stress emerging in the banking sector. These aren’t at the stage yet that will get policymakers to turn course nor result in a more severe crisis, but this is a key area to watch.

17 December 2021

Emerging Europe Economics Weekly

Poland overheating fears, Turkey crisis rumbles on

Concerns that Poland's economy is overheating will have only been reinforced by figures this week showing a surge in wage growth and a sharp widening of the current account deficit in October. Loose fiscal policy next year risks adding fuel to the fire, but aggressive monetary tightening should help to take some steam out of demand and inflation. Meanwhile, the decision by Turkey's central bank to lower interest rates by 100bp this week has deepened the lira's woes - it is now down by 55% against the dollar year-to-date. Interest rate hikes are clearly off the table and it's more likely that policymakers will resort to capital controls if strains in the banking sector intensify. – This will be the last Economics Weekly for 2021. The next Weekly will be sent on Friday 7th Jan. 2022 –

17 December 2021
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