EM Drop-In: Is political risk rising? From military uprisings to election upsets

Military coups are sweeping Francophone Africa, Argentina’s wildcard presidential candidate is suddenly an election favourite and Vladimir Putin’s war is eating away at Russian macro stability. EM investors are well attuned to political risk – but has it been more intense than usual of late? And what are the macro and market implications of these political ructions?

Economists from across our Emerging Markets teams held an online briefing on the issues dominating markets – and the ones that investors should be watching. They answered client questions about the EM economic and market outlook as they addressed key issues, including:

• West Africa’s coups – macroeconomic impacts and the risks of more takeovers;
• Russia’s growing economic instability and the 2024 presidential election;
• Whether Javier Milei’s primary win puts Argentina on the path to economic radicalism.