Should a Brexit deal be reached within the next few months, the UK’s financial markets will probably buck the global trend with money market rates, Gilt yields and the pound all rising by more than is widely expected. The FTSE 100, however, probably won’t be able to shake off the drag from overseas and is likely to fall sharply this year. If there’s a no deal Brexit, money market rates, Gilt yields and the pound would all fall. But our probability-weighted forecasts imply that the risks to investors’ expectations are skewed to the upside.
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