Long Run Returns Monitor (Jun. 2021)

Given that the moves in most financial markets since the previous editionof our Long Run Returns Monitor have been fairly small–at least for the period as a whole –the returns that we are projecting from most assets between now and the end of 2030 have changed only marginally. That said, the higher starting points that have resulted from their rallies in recent weeks mean that we are projecting somewhat weaker returns from energy commodities, Latin American equities and developed markets (DM) REITs. Meanwhile, the stumble in industrial and precious metals of late means that our projected returns from them are now a little less downbeat.
Oliver Allen Markets Economist
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Long Run Returns Monitor

Long Run Returns Monitor (Nov.)

Our monthly Long Run Returns Monitor provides our updated long-term projected returns for major asset classes, as well as a summary of the macroeconomic forecasts which underpin them. All projections in this publication are as of 23rd November 2021. A more detailed explanation of our views can be found in our annual Long Run Economic Outlook and Long Run Asset Allocation Outlook.

25 November 2021

Long Run Update

COP26 a small step forward but much left to do

COP26 has progressed efforts to fight climate change, but there is still a significant gap between pledges and actual policies. Unless action ramps up this decade, countries may face a choice between accepting the costs of greater global warming or a rapid, and potentially disorderly, transition to a greener economy.

16 November 2021

Long Run Update

COP26 unlikely to alter economic outlook

The UN’s annual climate change conference, COP26, has the potential to be an important milestone but it is just one step along the path required to limit global warming. Accordingly, it will not on its own stop climate change from clouding the long-run economic outlook for many emerging markets in particular.

2 November 2021

More from Oliver Allen

Capital Daily

On the fading of reflation and rotation

While we doubt that the “reflation” and “rotation” trades are entirely dead, they may have now largely run their course.

7 July 2021

Asset Allocation Update

What might a fall in oil prices mean for rotation?

While the drop back in oil prices which we forecast would probably mean an end to the recent outperformance of the energy sector, we doubt it would halt several other features of the rotation trade.

30 June 2021

Asset Allocation Update

REITs, equities and the threat of higher inflation

We doubt that US equity REITs would significantly outperform US equities in a period of higher inflation.

24 June 2021
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