There are growing signs that falling commodity prices and weaker demand from China are starting to take their toll on the economies of Latin America. In those countries that are most dependent on trade with China – namely Brazil, Peru and Chile – exports are now contracting in annual terms. By contrast, exports from Mexico and Colombia, for which the most important market is the US, are still growing. But while Chinese demand is likely to rebound later this year as recent policy stimulus starts to take effect, we doubt that this will be sustained over the course over 2013.
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