The past month has brought further evidence of weaker growth in Central Europe. Admittedly, August’s particularly disappointing data appear to have been distorted by variations in summer holidays. And the early data we have for September suggest that conditions improved towards the end of Q3. But even so, the underlying trend is that growth has softened since the start of the year, due largely to weakness in Germany, the region’s largest export market. On a more positive note, the recent fall in oil prices should benefit most countries in the region. The major loser from lower oil prices is Russia, where they present another headwind to the struggling economy.
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