Bank of Canada Watch Trade deal negotiations give cause for BoC to wait The recent rebound in core inflation and improved timely activity indicators will prompt the Bank of Canada to keep rates on hold at 2.75% next week – not least given policymakers will also want to... 23rd July 2025 · 7 mins read
US Housing Market Rapid Response US Existing Home Sales (June 2025) The fall in existing home sales in June comes despite the recent rebound in consumer confidence, suggesting affordability is still the main driver of homebuyer activity. With house price declines... 23rd July 2025 · 2 mins read
US Fed Watch US Fed Watch: Holding the (hawkish) line Despite calls within the FOMC for a rate cut at next week’s policy meeting, we expect the hawks to prevail – with tariff uncertainty still too elevated for the Fed to justify a policy shift, while the... 23rd July 2025 · 8 mins read
US Commercial Property Update US offices divergence poses both a risk and an opportunity We expect the divergence in performance between the best performing offices and the rest to persist through our forecast. This will see further capital value falls in average and poorer quality space... 22nd July 2025 · 5 mins read
Canada Economics Update Outdated BoC surveys understate economic resilience Bleak sales and spending intentions captured by the Bank of Canada’s second-quarter business and consumer surveys are consistent with a sharp downturn in GDP growth. However, the surveys were carried... 21st July 2025 · 4 mins read
US Economics Focus Tariffs will not fix decades-long manufacturing decline The past three administrations have all attempted and failed to reshore lost manufacturing jobs and we expect the latest effort, with Trump expanding use of tariffs in his second term, to be no... 21st July 2025 · 15 mins read
Commodities Focus How the AI race will reshape global energy markets Artificial intelligence’s share of global electricity consumption is set to at least double by 2030, to around 3% of the total, and could drive almost half of electricity consumption growth in the US... 21st July 2025 · 15 mins read
Climate Economics Update Trade truce lifts China’s green tech exports The US-China trade truce and rebound in US demand helped lift China’s New Three export volumes to a record high in June. Although the strength in green exports is vulnerable to renewed tariff... 21st July 2025 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Canada Weekly: Elevated core inflation a concern, for now While elevated core inflation rules out a Bank of Canada rate cut this month, industrial product price inflation and the survey data suggest that threat will soon subside. Together with weak GDP in... 18th July 2025 · 5 mins read
US Rapid Response US Uni. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Jul. 2025) The small rise in the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index in July and further drop-back in inflation expectations shows that, while overall confidence remains weak, households are less... 18th July 2025 · 2 mins read
US Economics Weekly US Weekly: Too early to celebrate limited tariff impacts The June data released this week showed that, while tariff effects are crystallising in particular industries, broader impacts have so far been avoided. But with pre-tariff inventory stockpiles... 18th July 2025 · 5 mins read
Commodities Weekly Commodities Weekly: New sanctions on Russia fail to rock the oil market New sanctions on Russian oil from the US and Europe this week were met by a muted market reaction. This is a reflection of investors doubting President Trump will follow through with his threats, and... 18th July 2025 · 4 mins read
US Housing Market Rapid Response US Housing Starts (June 2025) The pick-up in housing starts in June is less encouraging than first appears, as it is narrowly concentrated in both the volatile multifamily sector, and in the Northeast of the country. Single-family... 18th July 2025 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily A brief glimpse of a post-Powell world Yesterday’s reports that President Trump is considering firing Fed Chair Powell imminently were quickly denied and most key market prices have reverted to roughly where they were before the news broke... 17th July 2025 · 5 mins read
US Chart Pack US Chart Pack (Jul. 2025) Tariff negotiations rumble on, but our base case remains that the tariffs ultimately imposed will not cause a recession – though we expect growth to slow. We forecast GDP growth of 1.6% this year and... 17th July 2025 · 1 min read
US Economics Update What happens if Trump fires Powell? The market reaction yesterday provided a taste of what might be to come if President Trump followed through his threat to fire Fed Chair Jerome Powell, with the dollar, equities and short rates likely... 17th July 2025 · 5 mins read
