Capital Daily US equity and bond markets to keep ignoring oil We see dimmer prospects for oil prices over the next year or so. But we think that will keep being a sideshow for US equity and bond markets. 20th May 2025 · 4 mins read
US Chart Pack US Chart Pack (May. 2025) We assume that the 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs will become permanent, keeping tariffs at 10% for most countries except China, which will face a steeper 40% levy. A recession should be avoided... 20th May 2025 · 1 min read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Consumer Prices (Apr. 2025) The removal of the carbon tax sent energy prices tumbling in April, pushing headline inflation below the 2% target. More concerningly, the Bank’s preferred CPI-trim and CPI-median core measures rose... 20th May 2025 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily US downgrade comes at tough time for Treasuries The decision by Moody’s to downgrade the US government’s credit rating highlights that there are several potential storm clouds on the horizon for Treasuries, even if the downgrade itself doesn’t seem... 19th May 2025 · 5 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Canada Weekly: Housing market weakness becomes harder to ignore The softening housing market has mostly flown under the radar, but that is soon likely to change following April’s data, which showed house prices taking another sharp leg down. Combined with the... 16th May 2025 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily Some signs of residual market stress after tariff shock There are still a few signs of stress in US financial markets. That’s despite this week’s ongoing rebound in the S&P 500, which has taken it well above its level on “Liberation Day”. It reflects the... 16th May 2025 · 4 mins read
US Economics Weekly US Weekly: Was Trump right about tariffs? The lack of any obvious tariff effect in either the price or activity data for April raises an interesting question – is it just taking longer for it to show up or was President Trump right after all... 16th May 2025 · 4 mins read
US Rapid Response Uni. Of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (May 2025) The weaker-than-expected May print of the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index was driven by a further increase in inflation expectations and suggests households remain wary about the... 16th May 2025 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Rapid Response US Housing Starts (Apr. 2025) The small rebound in housing starts in April is more troubling than it appears, as it barely recoups the sharp, weather-related decline seen in March and conceals renewed weakness in both single- and... 16th May 2025 · 2 mins read
Commodities Weekly Commodities Weekly: Easing supply risks sharpens focus on soft oil demand Despite the latest tariff rollback, commodity demand is still set to soften this year. In oil markets, with supply set to rise as OPEC+ brings back barrels more quickly than first planned, the risks... 16th May 2025 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly MENA Weekly: Trump’s trip tips the Gulf towards the US President Trump’s visit to the Gulf has led to a raft of deals, totalling nearly $1trn, with more likely in the offing. While Saudi Arabia’s ‘security for oil’ pact that underpinned strong relations... 15th May 2025 · 8 mins read
US Rapid Response US Industrial Production (Apr. 2025) At face value, the stagnation of industrial production in April and the fall in manufacturing output suggest that tariffs are weighing on domestic production. However, some of this is due to an... 15th May 2025 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US Retail Sales & PPI (Apr 2025) Despite fears raised by the slump in sentiment, retail sales edged up by 0.1% m/m in April, following a massive 1.7% m/m gain the month before. Admittedly, control group sales fell by 0.2% m/m last... 15th May 2025 · 2 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Manufacturing Sales (Mar. 2025) The sharp decline in manufacturing sales volumes in March suggests the earlier boost from US tariff front-running is now reversing. A modest rise in new orders supports our view that the watered-down... 15th May 2025 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily US yield curve could flatten further, despite Fed cuts We think the recent “bear flattening” of the US Treasury yield curve has a bit further to run. 15th May 2025 · 4 mins read
Asset Allocation Update US dollar & equities may not always dance to the same tune On balance we suspect the US dollar will be positively correlated with the performance of the US stock market (i.e. it will have a “positive beta”) over the next year or so. But we don’t think that... 15th May 2025 · 6 mins read
