Canada Economics Update Housing Watch (Aug. 2026) The latest data provide a bit more reassurance that the housing market is past the worst, but the renewed rise in five-year bond yields suggests that higher mortgage rates will soon temper the... 18th August 2026 · 3 mins read
US Rapid Response US Industrial Production (Jul. 2026) The small rise in manufacturing output in July told much of the same story of late, with production of high-tech products amid the AI buildout sustaining modest growth in an industrial sector being... 18th August 2026 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Rapid Response US Housing Starts (Jul. 2026) Sharp declines in both single- and multi-family starts in July suggest developers were wary of starting new projects amid the renewed rise in mortgage rates. But stronger permit issuance across both... 18th August 2026 · 2 mins read
Bonds Update What to make of hyperscalers’ rising debt levels While most US hyperscalers have ample capacity to take on additional debt to fund their AI-related capex, financing constraints are slowly appearing for the less financially robust parts of the AI... 17th August 2026 · 4 mins read
Canada Economics Update Section 338 tariffs further delay a worsening CUSMA The new Section 338 tariffs risk pushing the economy back towards recession, especially if Ottawa’s planned retaliation invites further aggression from the US. Worse still, a renewed trade war muddies... 17th August 2026 (Updated 24th August 2026) · 5 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Consumer Prices (Jul. 2026) While core prices rose at their strongest pace in almost a year in July, the key drivers were temporary factors and the annual rate remained at the Bank of Canada’s 2% target. The key message... 17th August 2026 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily Treasury sell-off not (yet) a major worry for stock markets The renewed rise in long-term government bond yields despite generally softer US economic data and the largely unchanged situation in the Strait of Hormuz is somewhat worrying. But Treasury yields... 17th August 2026 · 5 mins read
US Commercial Property Rapid Response US Commercial Property Lending (July 2026) Net lending by banks to commercial real estate excluding farms slowed in July to $4.1bn, from $8.9bn in June. That’s the lowest total since April 2025. Slower net lending against both multifamily and... 14th August 2026 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Fed’s next move a hike, but not in September The tameness of the price data for July means we are dropping our call for the Fed to raise interest rates in September. Nonetheless, we are not convinced that the conditions are in place for core... 14th August 2026 · 6 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Prospects improve for a deal to avert 50% tariffs Reports this week that the US is willing work with Canada to reduce, though not fully eliminate, some of its sector-specific tariffs make us slightly more confident that the 50% Section 338 tariffs... 14th August 2026 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily New engine, same US equity outperformance Sector composition has been a headwind to the performance of the US stock market vis-à-vis the rest of the world in recent months, but a broad-based rally has helped it to outperform regardless. 14th August 2026 · 4 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Manufacturing Sales (Jun. 2026) Another broad-based rise in manufacturing sales in June poses upside risks to an already punchy second-quarter GDP estimate and, paired with recent strength in the labour market, leaves soft core... 14th August 2026 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US Retail Sales (Jul 2026) The fall in control group retail sales in July, together with downward revisions to growth in May and June, leave the consumer looking a little less healthy and further reduce the chance of the Fed... 14th August 2026 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Major gains for Midwest markets in warehouse rankings Our updated analysis of 34 major industrial markets shows an improvement in the rent growth prospects for many Midwest markets, with big year-on-year gains in Cleveland, Detroit, Indianapolis and St... 13th August 2026 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Recent rise in Treasury term premia no cause for alarm Despite a recent rebound in ACM’s estimate of the 10-year Treasury term premium, to within striking distance of May 2025’s more-than-decade high of ~0.9%, we doubt it will rise further. 13th August 2026 · 5 mins read
US Rapid Response US Producer Prices (Jul 2026) The PPI data, together with the CPI data released yesterday, point to a 0.16% m/m rise in the core PCE deflator in July. That would be marginally lower than the target consistent rate and, on the back... 13th August 2026 · 2 mins read
