Canada Economics Update Venezuelan oil only a small threat to Canadian output The likely increase in Venezuela’s oil output in the next few years will cause some pain for Canadian producers, but it is unlikely to have a major impact on GDP growth. 13th January 2026 · 5 mins read
US Housing Market Rapid Response US New Home Sales (Sep. & Oct. 2025) New home sales remained above 700,000 annualised in October for the third month in a row, confirming that the combination of slightly lower borrowing costs and strong homebuilder sales incentives are... 13th January 2026 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US Consumer Prices (Dec 2025) The weaker-than-expected 0.2% m/m increase in the core CPI in December suggested that there has been some genuine moderation in underlying inflation pressures in recent months. Nevertheless, our... 13th January 2026 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Five key calls for US commercial real estate in 2026 We expect another slow year for investment in 2026 and a correspondingly poor (and below-consensus) outlook for total returns. On the bright side the improving apartments outlook will see it return 7%... 13th January 2026 · 4 mins read
US Economics Update Latest threat to Fed independence likely to fail The Trump administration’s latest attempt to pressure Fed Chair Jerome Powell and his colleagues on the FOMC to cut interest rates will fail and there are several reasons to believe it could backfire. 12th January 2026 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Don’t count out the greenback, despite threats to Fed We still think there are plenty of reasons to be positive on the US dollar, despite the latest threats to the Fed’s independence. 12th January 2026 · 5 mins read
US Economics Weekly Productivity boom: this time it's structural The latest surge in productivity suggests the AI boom is providing lasting benefits to the US economy that go well beyond just the value of investment in data centres. Non-farm business productivity... 9th January 2026 · 7 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Reports of the oil sands’ death are greatly exaggerated President Trump’s hope to apply his “drill, baby, drill” mantra to Venezuela carries risks for Canada’s oil sector, but even in the most extreme scenario it would be years before we saw a big impact... 9th January 2026 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily The US labour market won’t burst this stock market bubble One of the key differences between the latter stages of the dotcom bubble and the current AI equity bubble is the state of the US labour market. This is important because, even though the unemployment... 9th January 2026 · 4 mins read
US Rapid Response US Consumer Sentiment (Jan 2026) Consumer sentiment rose to a four-month high, with an improvement to the current conditions index hinting to a labour market that remains weak, but is improving. Admittedly the level of consumer... 9th January 2026 · 1 min read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Labour Force Survey (Dec 2025) The 0.3%-pt rebound in the unemployment rate to 6.8% last month was mostly due to the unwinding of temporary moves which had pulled it down the month prior. With private sector hiring also flat last... 9th January 2026 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Rapid Response US Housing Starts (Sep. & Oct. 2025) Although the government shutdown-delayed residential construction report covering September and October showed a further weakening in housing starts, permit issuance picked up, suggesting we may have... 9th January 2026 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US Employment Report (Dec. 2025) The fall in the unemployment rate in December leaves the labour market looking in better health than many feared, suggesting that the Fed will be in no rush to resume interest rate cuts. 9th January 2026 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Update Proposed investor restrictions won’t shift the outlook The large institutional investors that President Trump has proposed excluding from the single-family market account for just 1% of home sales nationally, meaning barring them would not materially... 8th January 2026 · 4 mins read
US Rapid Response US International Trade (Oct 2025) Swings in trade of gold and pharmaceuticals were behind the plunge in the trade deficit to a two-decade low in October, though higher computer imports suggest there are genuine signs of strength... 8th January 2026 · 2 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada International Trade (Oct 2025) Export volumes fell a little and the trade balance returned to deficit in October, but the increases in imports of investment products bode well for domestic demand and there were some tentative signs... 8th January 2026 · 2 mins read
