Capital Daily Will “Liberation Day” free the market from its shackles? Volatility in the US stock market hasn’t picked up sharply since Donald Trump returned to the White House, despite a very high degree of uncertainty about his economic policies. That may remain the... 2nd April 2025 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Credit spreads won’t tighten much even if stocks rebound Although US corporate credit spreads have taken their cue from US equities over the past couple of years, we don't think they will reach new lows even if equities reach new highs. 1st April 2025 · 4 mins read
US Economics Update JOLTS data largely static for now February’s JOLTS data show a labour market settling back into its pre-pandemic norms. With limited signs of DOGE’s trimming of the federal workforce in the survey, all eyes will now turn to March’s... 1st April 2025 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US ISM Manufacturing Index (Mar. 2025) The slight dip in the ISM manufacturing index in March suggests that, rather than triggering a reshoring factory renaissance, the uncertainty surrounding President Trump’s tariff threats are... 1st April 2025 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily Will EZ equities continue to outperform US ones? While the recent outperformance of euro-zone stocks relative to US ones may have a bit further to run, we doubt European equities would hold up in absolute terms if US stocks fell much further. 31st March 2025 · 4 mins read
Commodities Update A framework for commodities ahead of liberation day Ahead of reciprocal tariffs being announced on April 2nd, dubbed “liberation day”, this Update addresses to what extent US commodities trade could be caught in the crossfire. The most exposed... 31st March 2025 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update Could the US coerce others to increase tariffs on China? The US would have to exert a lot of pressure to coerce most major countries into putting large tariffs on goods from China. Curtailing trade with China would have an economic cost and even countries... 31st March 2025 · 4 mins read
Climate Economics Monthly Climate Monthly: Climate policy falls down the agenda The recent scrapping of the carbon tax in Canada shows that the political pushback against climate policy is certainly not just confined to the United States. But to paraphrase Mark Twain, rumours of... 31st March 2025 · 5 mins read
US Economics Weekly US Weekly: Trump shifts tariffs up a gear The Trump administration’s 25% tariffs on most motor vehicle and some parts imports is an upside risk to our inflation forecasts. There have been some hints from the administration that the levies... 28th March 2025 · 8 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Canada Weekly: Tariffs to tip economy into recession While the US vehicle tariffs announced this week do not pose as large a threat to the Canadian economy as many believe, they reinforce the view that Canada will be hit harder by tariffs than we had... 28th March 2025 · 5 mins read
Commodities Weekly Commodities Weekly: Copper’s COMEX “crocodile” won’t snap shut Having risen to a record high this week, the spread between copper prices on the COMEX in the US and the London Metal Exchange (LME) is set to persist, and could conceivably even widen further in the... 28th March 2025 · 4 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada GDP (Jan. 2025) The stronger-than-expected 0.4% m/m rise in GDP in January, along with an upward revision to the December outturn, shows the economy still had solid momentum at the start of this year. The weak... 28th March 2025 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US Personal Income & Spending (Feb. 2025) The third consecutive above-target gain in core PCE prices in February, of 0.37% m/m, reinforces our view that the Fed is unlikely to cut interest rates this year. Admittedly, officials are likely to... 28th March 2025 · 2 mins read
Global Economic Outlook Global Economic Outlook: Trade war to dampen, not derail, global growth We expect the world economy to grow a touch slower in the next couple of years than it did in 2024. Trump’s policies will drag on US growth, policy support will not prevent a slowdown in China’s... 27th March 2025 · 45 mins read
Commodities Update Sentiment sours among US fossil fuel producers Despite President Trump’s pro-fossil fuel stance, the uncertainty caused by tariff policy and his aim for lower oil prices is weighing on sentiment among fossil fuel producers. Sentiment will continue... 27th March 2025 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Tariffs hit stock markets, US relatively spared – for now Equity investors have stopped ignoring US President Donald Trump’s tariffs announcements. We think they are right to do so. 27th March 2025 · 4 mins read
