Long Run Economic Outlook US and Asia to lead the AI decade Global growth will slow in the long run as population growth weakens and the scope for emerging market catch-up narrows, but there will be bright spots. We are increasingly confident that advances in... 18th February 2026 · 1 hr, 9 mins read
Equities Update AI vs dotcom: EM equities may hold up better this time While the recent underperformance of US tech stocks relative to Emerging Markets (EMs) echoes the eve of the dotcom bust, we think the AI rally still has a bit further to run. That said, if the AI... 18th February 2026 · 5 mins read
US Commercial Property Rapid Response NYC won't be alone in facing difficult budget decisions New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani's proposal for a 9.5% property tax hike to help address a shortfall in the city's budget is likely to be reflected in many other major US cities over the coming... 18th February 2026 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily The Treasury rally and the tech sell-off The drop in US Treasury yields over the past couple of weeks remains difficult to square with recent economic news. But other factors – in particular ongoing jitters around the prospects of the US... 17th February 2026 · 4 mins read
Equities Update What to make of diverging confidence and the stock market While the post-pandemic divergence between consumers’ confidence and the health of the stock market in the US is striking, we doubt the old relationship between the two will re-establish itself in... 17th February 2026 · 6 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Foreign capital flows to the US set to stay at low levels The US’ relatively strong economic growth outlook and large data center market are likely to support a pick-up in foreign demand for US assets after the cross-border share of purchases fell to at... 17th February 2026 · 4 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Consumer Prices (Jan 2026) The further moderation in core inflation in January lends support to our view that it will decline to 2.0% by the middle of the year, which is a faster pace of disinflation than the Bank of Canada... 17th February 2026 · 2 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Manufacturing Sales (Dec. 2025) The pick-up in manufacturing sales in December was largely due to a rebound in auto sales following a temporary disruption in the prior month. While the survey evidence is showing some tentative signs... 16th February 2026 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily Strong US data, weak US market sentiment – one has got to give We doubt the disconnect between robust US economic data and fearful US financial markets will continue. We expect that US equity markets, Treasury yields, and the dollar will rebound. 16th February 2026 · 5 mins read
US Commercial Property Rapid Response US Commercial Property Lending (Jan.26) Net lending by banks to commercial real estate softened at the start of 2026 to $4.5bn in January, the lowest since September 2025. But the total of $33bn over the past three months represents a... 13th February 2026 · 1 min read
Capital Daily We doubt the Treasury rally will last Although the latest US inflation data has extended a Treasury rally that has left yields across the curve at their lows of the year, we think the totality of the data this week actually strengthens... 13th February 2026 · 4 mins read
US Economics Weekly Improving jobs market weakens case for more Fed cuts January's employment report was about as good as could have been hoped for, with a 172,000 rise in private payrolls comfortably beating expectations and the unemployment rate dropping further to 4.3%... 13th February 2026 · 10 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Up-and-down week foreshadows CUSMA renegotiation A week of political drama, much of it emanating from south of the border, provides useful insight into how we can expect the CUSMA renegotiation to unfold. 13th February 2026 · 8 mins read
US Rapid Response US Consumer Prices (Jan 2026) The 0.28% m/m increase in core CPI in January was mainly due to a bigger 0.38% m/m gain in core services prices, with core goods prices unchanged, suggesting that tariffs and unseasonably large hikes... 13th February 2026 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Rapid Response US Existing Home Sales (Jan 2026) The drop in existing home sales to a two-year low in January should prove temporary as the recent decline in borrowing costs feeds into greater homebuyer demand, notwithstanding some potential near... 12th February 2026 · 2 mins read
Canada Chart Pack Canada Chart Pack (Feb 2026) We expect GDP growth to be little more than 1% this year as household spending and investment remain subdued amid the immigration crackdown and start of CUSMA renegotiation. Despite soft employment... 12th February 2026 · 1 min read
