Capital Daily We doubt this conflict will finally topple tech stocks US tech sectors have been on the back foot over recent days, with valuations falling towards those of the rest of the market. While this echoes the final months of the dotcom bubble, we think these... 27th March 2026 · 4 mins read
US Economics Weekly Manufacturing dragging down non-residential construction We do not expect the war in Iran to dent the data centre buildout but, with manufacturing construction investment falling sharply, we may still be overestimating the outlook for non-residential... 27th March 2026 · 8 mins read
Commodities Weekly Certainty and conviction in short supply among energy execs The latest Dallas Fed survey suggests that US energy executives are cautiously optimistic about the near-term outlook, but it also underlines how the lack of certainty is complicating investment... 27th March 2026 · 6 mins read
US Employment Report Preview Payrolls to rebound after weather and strike disruption We estimate that non-farm payrolls rebounded by an above-consensus 125,000 in March following the disruption from severe weather and strikes in February. Nonetheless, the unemployment rate is likely... 26th March 2026 · 4 mins read
US Chart Pack US Chart Pack (Mar. 2026) Higher oil prices will result in slightly softer consumption in the near term than we previously expected, but we doubt recent events will derail the AI buildout. Thanks to strong AI-related... 25th March 2026 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Did an AI bubble in the US stock market already burst? If the presence or otherwise of an AI-fuelled bubble in the stock market is determined solely by the relative valuation of its technology sectors, then any such bubble in the S&P 500 has already burst... 25th March 2026 · 4 mins read
Canada Chart Pack Canada Chart Pack (Mar. 2026) In our baseline scenario, WTI has already peaked but still averages $80 per barrel over the rest of the year, acting as a modest net positive for GDP growth and boosting headline inflation... 25th March 2026 · 1 min read
Global Commercial Property Update Alternative real estate sectors set to gain more ground In an environment of relatively weak economic growth, alternative sectors stand to benefit from a lower reliance on cyclical drivers, and support from structural trends that will drive long-term... 24th March 2026 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily What we can learn from markets’ latest rebound The positive reaction to the latest news on the war provides some guide as to how things might fare if it de-escalates further, and suggests that the damage in some markets might be a bit longer... 24th March 2026 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Markets back in escalation mode Escalation in the war remains bad news for asset markets. And while central banks haven’t themselves done much to de-escalate conditions in the bond market, there’s a case, in our view, for an... 23rd March 2026 · 5 mins read
US Economics Weekly Goods inflation a thorn in the Fed’s side The sharp repricing in futures markets toward discounting the chance of a Fed hike this year looks somewhat overdone, especially given the Fed’s commentary following this week’s rate decision. While... 20th March 2026 · 4 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly War-charged markets push back against dovish Bank Despite the Bank of Canada striking a relatively dovish tone with this week's rate decision, it has found itself swept up in the broader rally in investors' rate expectations. Our base case remains... 20th March 2026 · 4 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Retail Sales (Jan. 2026) The 1.1% m/m rise in retail sales in January was worse than expected but, along with February’s advance estimate for another gain, still paints a more positive picture for household spending than late... 20th March 2026 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily The future might not be so bad for government bonds While the conflict in the Middle East could evolve in myriad ways, we think government bonds would typically recover in our ‘baseline’ scenario but struggle in our ‘adverse’ one. That largely reflects... 19th March 2026 · 4 mins read
US Housing Market Rapid Response US New Home Sales (Jan. 2026) The large drop in new home sales in January reflects the impact of extreme cold weather across much of the country, and is likely to have reversed last month. Moreover, newbuild sales are less... 19th March 2026 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update High oil prices risk stalling nascent manufacturing recovery Sustained high oil prices would stall the nascent manufacturing recovery by weighing on global demand. The data centre buildout would likely go on unaffected, however, sustaining strong demand for hi... 19th March 2026 · 4 mins read
