Canada Rapid Response Bank of Canada Policy Announcement (Jul 2025) The Bank of Canada kept interest rates unchanged at 2.75% for a third consecutive meeting today as it awaits greater clarity over the country’s future trading terms with the US. The communications... 30th July 2025 · 3 mins read
US Rapid Response US GDP (Q2 2025) The 3.0% annualised gain in second-quarter GDP overstates the economy’s underlying strength, as it was largely driven by a 30% slump in imports as pre-tariff stockpiling unwound. The more worrying... 30th July 2025 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update JOLTS static as firms await greater tariff certainty The JOLTS data for June show a labour market waiting in suspense for the Trump administration to settle on a final arsenal of country-specific tariffs. While the federal layoff rate remains roughly... 29th July 2025 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Rapid Response US Case-Shiller/FHFA House Prices (May 2025) The second consecutive 0.3% m/m fall in house prices in May suggests that the market is still struggling to find balance under the weight of near-7% mortgages, in turn presenting a risk to our view... 29th July 2025 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily Full steam ahead for the US stock market? It’s increasingly looking as though the S&P 500 will continue to power ahead. 29th July 2025 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Europe’s trade deal not doing much for its stock market Euro-zone equities have, in general, already given back much of their gains after this weekend’s trade deal between the US and the EU. And we don’t foresee a new wave of euro-zone exceptionalism. 28th July 2025 · 4 mins read
US Commercial Property Update NCREIF Q2 2025: Another disappointingly muted release At 1.2% q/q, second quarter returns were roughly in line with expectations. But the data support our view that appraisals don’t fully reflect the drop in values needed for assets to transact. While a... 28th July 2025 · 3 mins read
US Economics Weekly US Weekly: New trade deals shed light on final tariff landscape With the EU reportedly close to striking a trade deal similar to the one officials agreed with Japan this week, the final tariff landscape is becoming clearer. Both appear to have settled on a 15%... 25th July 2025 · 9 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Canada Weekly: Industry support ramps up as trade negotiations slow The recent ramp-up in support for auto and steel manufacturers suggests the federal government is serious about holding out for a better trade deal with the US, even if that means missing the August... 25th July 2025 · 5 mins read
US Economics Focus Tariff impact on inflation slowly building Up to now there has been only limited passthrough from tariffs into final consumer prices, but we still expect the impact to gradually mount in the second half of this year. Many retailers appear to... 25th July 2025 · 12 mins read
US Rapid Response US Durable Goods Orders (Jun. 2025) Ignore the large 9.3% m/m drop in durable goods orders in June, which reflects a reversal of May’s surge of aircraft orders from the Qatar Airways Boeing deal announced during President Trump's visit... 25th July 2025 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Focus The causes of fiscal crises and their economic impact History shows that there are no debt or deficit thresholds beyond which a fiscal crisis is inevitable. Rather, crises stem from a mix of high debt, poor debt dynamics, and weak fiscal credibility... 24th July 2025 · 26 mins read
Climate Economics Update Some silver linings in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act Changes to clean energy tax credits in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act will slow the renewable rollout in the US and make it more challenging to meet the renewed upward trend in electricity demand... 24th July 2025 · 3 mins read
US Employment Report Preview US Employment Report Preview: Payroll growth slowing with more weakness to come We expect the recent boost from state & local government hiring to fade, resulting in a smaller 130,000 gain in non-farm payrolls in July. The immigration crackdown likely kept the unemployment rate... 24th July 2025 · 4 mins read
Global Commercial Property Update Global CRE to outperform other assets Although a forecast global real estate return of sub-6% p.a. over the next decade appears disappointing, compared to other assets it stacks up well. We expect sub-4% total returns for both global... 24th July 2025 · 4 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Retail Sales (May 2025) The flash estimate showing a solid rise in retail sales in June, paired with the recent rebound in consumer confidence, suggests the decline in sales in May was more a reflection of demand normalising... 24th July 2025 · 2 mins read
