US Rapid Response US Consumer Prices (May 2025) The muted 0.1% m/m rise in the core CPI in May is not quite as good as it looks, with our preliminary estimate pointing to a 0.20% rise in the Fed’s preferred core PCE deflator ahead of the PPI data... 11th June 2025 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Corporate bonds offer more proof of stretched US CRE valuations On the back of the MSCI and NCREIF indices reporting rising capital values in Q1 and our significantly below-consensus forecast views for the next two years, we are again re-evaluating our forecasts... 11th June 2025 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Are markets right to now dismiss US tariff risks? With one month to go until the “pause” of the Trump administration’s “reciprocal tariffs” is, at least in principle, set to expire, market participants continue to take a pretty relaxed view of the... 9th June 2025 · 4 mins read
US Economics Focus Risk of US fiscal crisis rising The Federal debt is undoubtedly on an unsustainable path. The debt burden is already close to 100% of GDP and, with the budget deficit likely to remain close to 6% of GDP for the foreseeable future... 9th June 2025 · 20 mins read
US Economics Update Foreign visitor slump could lend the Fed a hand A slump in the number of foreign visitors to the US could prove to be a helpful source of deflationary pressure this year, while having a limited impact on GDP growth. 9th June 2025 · 3 mins read
US Economics Weekly US Weekly: Tax cuts, trade and a truce The latest CBO projections suggest that tariff revenues will almost exactly offset the cost of the budget reconciliation over the next decade. Otherwise, although the recent talks between Presidents... 6th June 2025 · 5 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap FX Weekly: US dollar remains on edge The US dollar is enjoying a strong end to the week thanks to signs of economic resilience in the latest US Employment Report but, for the second week in a row, the DXY Index is little changed on net... 6th June 2025 · 5 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Canada Weekly: The Start of the Deal? While a new trade and security deal between the US and Canada looks to be on the horizon, the Canadian government is right to begin exploring other avenues too. Lowering interprovincial trade barriers... 6th June 2025 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Investors don’t seem very worried about the US economy May’s Employment Report in the US ought to assuage concerns about the economy after some softer data earlier this week. But even if growth there holds up over the rest of the year, investors’ current... 6th June 2025 · 4 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Labour Force Survey (May 2025) The rise in employment in May was better than expected but, paired with recent data, still shows that the labour market is struggling. We are therefore sticking to our view that the Bank of Canada... 6th June 2025 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US Employment Report (May 2025) The 139,000 gain in non-farm payrolls was not as good as it looks, given its narrow breadth and the 95,000 downgrade to payroll gains over the prior two months. Nevertheless, it shows that tariffs are... 6th June 2025 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update Trump unlikely to drive down drug prices substantially If President Trump succeeded in his aim of cutting prescription drug prices by 50% “almost immediately”, it could subtract more than 1%-point from headline PCE inflation. There is little indication of... 5th June 2025 · 5 mins read
Canada Economics Update Still strong immigration will push unemployment higher Visa approvals for temporary residents have picked up, which suggests that, rather than contracting as the government previously outlined, the population will continue to grow this year. This will... 5th June 2025 · 4 mins read
US Rapid Response US International Trade (Apr 2025) The huge narrowing of the trade deficit in April was largely driven by a steep drop in pharmaceutical product and gold bullion imports, reversing their earlier surge as tariff front-running ahead of... 5th June 2025 · 2 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada International Trade (Apr. 2025) The jump in the trade deficit to a record high in April was larger than expected as tariff front-running reversed with “Liberation Day” and Canadian exporters paused to make more of their output USMCA... 5th June 2025 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Tariff upheaval not expected to derail industrial upturn The recent court ruling on tariffs has put industrial demand back in the spotlight. Our view is that not enough has changed yet to make wholesale revisions to our short-term view and that, beyond this... 4th June 2025 · 3 mins read
