US Housing Market Outlook Housing recovery still some way off Strengthening economic growth will not provide much of a lift to the housing market, which we expect to remain in its structural malaise as mortgage rates stay above 6% over the forecast period. We... 12th August 2026 · 11 mins read
Capital Daily September rate hike a coin toss, but hikes are coming US CPI data for July seem unlikely to swing the balance on the FOMC one way or the other, so developments around the Strait of Hormuz and the US August price data are likely to be key. For now, we... 12th August 2026 · 4 mins read
US Rapid Response US Consumer Prices (Jul 2026) The 0.21% m/m rise in core CPI in July does not really swing the debate for either the doves or the hawks on the FOMC, with our preliminary estimate ahead of the PPI data tomorrow pointing to a... 12th August 2026 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily S&P 500 earnings growth isn’t really broadening out The argument that S&P 500 earnings growth is broadening out doesn’t really stack up. It remains highly concentrated in two of the three ‘big-tech’ sectors, even allowing for a pick up in some others. 11th August 2026 · 5 mins read
US Housing Market Rapid Response US Existing Home Sales (Jul. 2026) The modest fall in existing home sales in July will probably be followed by further declines in the next few releases, reflecting the steady rise in mortgage rates through June and July, which reached... 11th August 2026 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily US CPI may prove a sterner test for markets than payrolls Equity markets shrugged off last week’s big downside surprise in US payrolls but would probably find negative news on US inflation harder to absorb. That would also put renewed pressure on the yen... 10th August 2026 · 6 mins read
US Economics Weekly Softer wage growth will comfort the Fed We would not read too much into the fall in payrolls in July, but the lack of wage pressures clearly reduces the need for the Fed to raise rates soon unless the price data next week deliver a big... 7th August 2026 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily Treasuries’ payrolls relief is likely to prove fleeting The latest payrolls data raise the bar for a rate hike next month, but we still think the Fed will hike by more than is discounted over the coming year. That would spark a sharp sell-off at the short... 7th August 2026 · 3 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Economy gaining momentum The latest data show an economy gaining momentum. While that suggests we should expect slightly more hawkish communications from the Bank of Canada when it meets next month, the recent softness in... 7th August 2026 · 5 mins read
US Rapid Response US Employment Report (Jul. 2026) Although the hiring weakness in the July employment report has not been reflected in the broader set of labour market indicators, it is still likely to revive concerns among Fed officials about the... 7th August 2026 · 3 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Labour Force Survey (Jul. 2026) The surge in employment in July following last week’s strong preliminary second-quarter GDP growth estimate is further evidence that the economy is gaining momentum after a weak start to the year... 7th August 2026 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily This all-time high looks on a (slightly) firmer footing The latest all-time high in the S&P 500 arguably looks healthier than its prior one in early June, at least based on measures of market breadth. We think that has helped clear the way for a further... 6th August 2026 · 4 mins read
Global Commercial Property Update AI will boost office demand in tech hubs as long as the bubble lasts We expect AI firms to drive office demand in key tech hubs as they expand and compete for top talent, although this exposure heightens the downside risk for the least diversified tech markets if we... 6th August 2026 · 6 mins read
Canada Economics Update Little sign yet of AI-related GDP gains in Canada There is little sign of AI effects supporting activity or productivity in Canada yet, although the evidence of accelerating ICT investment and increasing AI adoption more broadly bodes well for the... 6th August 2026 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Squaring S&P 500 sector performance with the ISMs & AI Once upon a time, the relative performance of two baskets of ‘pure’ cyclical and defensive sectors in the S&P 500 closely tracked a GDP-weighted index of headline readings from the ISM manufacturing... 5th August 2026 · 5 mins read
US Rapid Response US ISM Services Index (Jul. 2026) The slight rise in the headline ISM Services Index in July leaves our weighted composite ISM index at a level consistent with third-quarter GDP growth of around 2% annualised. While a little... 5th August 2026 · 2 mins read
