US Rapid Response US productivity (Q3) The latest surge in US productivity suggests the AI boom is providing lasting benefits to the US economy that go well beyond just the value of investment in data centres. Non-farm business... 8th January 2026 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update Labour market remains in ‘low-hire, low-fire’ stable state The drop in the job openings and job hires rates reported in November’s JOLTS was accompanied by a decline in the layoff rate from already depressed levels, underscoring employers’ continued caution... 7th January 2026 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US ISM Services Index (Dec 2025) The continued fall in the ISM Services prices paid index is consistent with “supercore” PCE inflation remaining elevated over the next few months, but heading back down in the right direction... 7th January 2026 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Apartment Metros Outlook D.C. & Miami remain bottom of the apartment rankings The apartment market appears to have turned a corner, with the national vacancy rate stabilizing in recent quarters as new supply moderates, which we expect will restore some pricing power to building... 6th January 2026 · 7 mins read
Global Economics Update Key questions in geoeconomics to start the year Geoeconomics is back in focus as we enter 2026, with the removal of Venezuela’s Nicolás Maduro by the US dominating headlines and raising questions for global markets. This Global Economics Update... 5th January 2026 · 5 mins read
US Rapid Response US ISM Manufacturing Index (Dec. 2025) The modest decline in the ISM Manufacturing Index in December confirms that the sector was struggling for momentum around the turn of the year, but we doubt that this will be enough to prevent overall... 5th January 2026 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Reviewing our 2025 key calls for US CRE Although we were right in expecting a slow recovery in investment transactions in 2025 and for office CMBS delinquency rates to climb further, stretched valuations did not result in another fall in... 5th January 2026 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update Venezuela’s vast energy potential to remain untapped Despite President Trump’s obvious desire for US oil companies to ramp up activity in Venezuela, lower oil prices and political uncertainty will frustrate efforts to exploit its vast energy potential... 5th January 2026 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily First thoughts on the market implications of Maduro’s capture While the capture of Venezuelan president Maduro by American forces has dominated headlines, financial markets seem unperturbed. We agree with the implicit view that the near-term economic and... 5th January 2026 · 3 mins read
US Employment Report Preview Unemployment rate to edge back down We estimate that non-farm payrolls rose by 60,000 in December, with the unemployment rate edging back down to 4.5%. 2nd January 2026 · 3 mins read
US Rapid Response US Fed Minutes (Dec 9-10) The minutes of the FOMC’s December meeting, when it voted to lower the fed funds target range by 25bp to between 3.50% and 3.75%, are somewhat outdated given the slew of delayed data releases since... 30th December 2025 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Office Metros Outlook Plenty of rent gains left in top southern office markets The office sector may be turning a corner, but there remain big differences in metro performance. Southern metros look set to dominate the winners, with Austin, Miami and Dallas coming out on top for... 30th December 2025 · 7 mins read
US Housing Market Rapid Response US Case-Shiller/FHFA House Prices (Oct. 2025) The healthy 0.3% m/m rise in house prices in October adds to evidence that the housing market has regained some momentum following the 75bp fall in mortgage rates earlier this year. Prices are now on... 30th December 2025 · 2 mins read
US Chart Pack US Chart Pack (Dec. 2025) We judge that the recent strength in AI-related investment marks the start of a multi-year capex boom. We expect GDP growth to be 2.5% in both 2026 and 2027. While labour demand remains soft , the... 23rd December 2025 · 0 mins read
US Rapid Response US Industrial Production (Oct. & Nov. 2025) The rise in industrial production in November looks less impressive with a peek at the breakdown, which shows manufacturing output flat last month, and considering the move simply reverses a fall in... 23rd December 2025 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US GDP (Q3 Initial) The 4.3% annualised gain in third-quarter GDP was well above the consensus estimate at 3.3%, but broadly in line with our own 4.5% estimate. A lot of other forecasters missed that this is essentially... 23rd December 2025 · 2 mins read
