Canada Economic Outlook Canada Outlook: Tariffs to push Canada into recession We have raised our assumption for the average US tariff rate that Canadian exporters will face, to a level that will likely push the economy into recession. The downturn should be only moderate if, as... 27th March 2025 · 15 mins read
US Employment Report Preview US Employment Report Preview: Federal layoffs to be only a modest drag on payrolls DOGE-led layoffs of approximately 25,000 junior federal employees will be a modest drag on March payrolls, but they should be offset a rebound in weather-sensitive sectors. We forecast a smaller yet... 27th March 2025 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update The implications of US vehicle tariffs In this Update, we answer several key questions about how the announced 25% tariffs on US imports of autos and parts might affect the global economy and the US itself. Mexico, Slovakia and Korea are... 27th March 2025 · 7 mins read
US Rapid Response Trump imposes 25% tariff on auto imports Following media reports at the start of this week that product-specific tariffs would be deferred, President Donald Trump has changed tack once again and announced that all finished motor vehicle... 26th March 2025 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Retail subsectors to see more consistent performance Physical retail demand has not only been shaped by online shopping, but also by shifting working patterns which have redistributed where we spend our money since COVID-19. Nevertheless, we expect a... 26th March 2025 · 6 mins read
US Rapid Response US Durable Goods Orders (Feb. 2025) Stronger orders for primary metals and fabricated metal products in February suggest that tariff effects helped to drive up core durable goods orders last month, while transportation orders also did... 26th March 2025 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Office Metros Outlook US Office Metros Outlook: Southern metros set for clear outperformance The divergence between the struggling western metros and the better-performing southern metros remains the key story in office markets. That expectation is underpinned by both higher office... 25th March 2025 · 6 mins read
US Housing Market Chart Pack US Housing Market Chart Pack (Mar. 25) We think markets are too optimistic about Fed rate cuts this year, meaning the recent dip in mortgage rates is just a temporary respite. We expect rates to rebound to 7% and hover around that level... 25th March 2025 · 1 min read
Equities Focus Trump’s agenda isn’t “game over” for ESG investing Environmental, Social and Governance, or ESG, investing has come under renewed pressure due to pushback from the new US president. Despite that, we think that demand for ESG investments is here to... 25th March 2025 · 15 mins read
Asset Allocation Update The beginning of the end of US exceptionalism? While US equity outperformance could reassert itself in the near term if concerns about US growth waned and enthusiasm about AI returned, we suspect that the longer-run story is brighter for equities... 25th March 2025 · 4 mins read
US Housing Market Rapid Response US New Home Sales (Feb. 2025) After a large partly weather-driven fall in January, last month’s small rebound in new home sales was a little underwhelming but still illustrates that the market for new homes is in decent shape. 25th March 2025 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Focus The Mar-a-Lago Accord: cutting through the chatter It is becoming clear that President Trump’s actions are driven by both his fixation on reducing the US trade deficit and his transactional approach to dealing with other countries. So, even though the... 25th March 2025 · 25 mins read
US Housing Market Rapid Response US Case-Shiller/FHFA House Prices (Jan. 2025) The solid 0.5% m/m rise in house prices in January and accompanying pick-up in house price inflation to 4.7%, from 4.6%, confirms that the market has stopped cooling for now. While we still expect... 25th March 2025 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily Shifting economic sands in US & EZ are also driving markets Over the past month or so, economic data have generally surprised to the downside in the US, whereas they have done the opposite in the euro-zone. This may be one reason for the intervening shift in... 24th March 2025 · 4 mins read
Commodities Outlook Tariff uncertainty overshadows fundamental weakness While tariffs and geopolitics complicate the near-term outlook for many commodities, the backdrop generally remains one of weak fundamentals; our end-2026 price forecasts for energy and industrial... 24th March 2025 · 23 mins read
Capital Daily Europe’s stock market: no big tech, no big sweat The prospect of looser fiscal policy in Germany isn’t the only significant reason MSCI’s Europe Index has outperformed its USA Index since Donald Trump returned to the White House. The ‘big-tech’... 21st March 2025 · 5 mins read
