US Rapid Response US Consumer Sentiment (Aug 2025) The slump in the University of Michigan measure of consumer sentiment to a three-month low of 58.6 in August, from 61.7, suggests that households remain very nervous about rising inflation in the wake... 15th August 2025 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US Industrial Production (July 2025) The small decline in industrial production in July was driven by the mining sector. Manufacturing output held up, and more timely survey data points to a small rebound in August. Once again, it is... 15th August 2025 · 2 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Manufacturing Sales (Jun. 2025) The small rebound in manufacturing sales in June will provide little relief, given that it barely offsets the weakness in April and May and the breakdown shows that US tariffs still have some sectors... 15th August 2025 · 2 mins read
Commodities Weekly Commodities Weekly: Spotlight on petrochems; Trump-Putin energy implications Calls to limit plastic production as part of the recently-collapsed UN treaty talks were always likely to run into a wall of opposition given the importance of petrochemical feedstocks as a source of... 15th August 2025 · 4 mins read
US Rapid Response US Retail Sales (Jul. 2025) The 0.5% m/m rise in retail sales in July, paired with the upward revision to May and June’s data, shows households continue to spend in healthy amounts despite the threat of tariffs – especially... 15th August 2025 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily Does it matter if you can’t trust the economic data? For the time being, there is little sign of either US equities or bonds being undermined by faltering trust in key economic data. But that might not last. 14th August 2025 · 4 mins read
US Housing Market Update Labour market slowdown won’t curtail rental demand The recent slowdown in the labour market won’t stop rental demand from continuing to climb this year, given that falling labour demand and the immigration clampdown are most impacting cross-sections... 14th August 2025 · 3 mins read
Canada Chart Pack Canada Chart Pack (Aug. 2025) The economy has mostly held up against US tariffs so far, thanks largely to resilient consumer spending. But exports have weakened, and investment is showing signs of slowing. With the upcoming USMCA... 14th August 2025 · 1 min read
US Rapid Response US Producer Prices (July 2025) Most of the large upside surprise to core PPI in July was due to a head-scratching increase in margins for wholesalers and retailers. While the data still imply that the core PCE deflator rose by... 14th August 2025 · 2 mins read
Global Commercial Property Update Global CRE needs a reset for real recovery to take hold With interest rates staying high and closed-end funds already sitting on a large volume of investors’ capital, global real estate fundraising looks set to stay in the doldrums. We think the sector... 13th August 2025 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily FOMC cuts wouldn’t guarantee lower long-end yields Today’s July US CPI data came in broadly in line with consensus expectations, so have done little to shift the prevailing market narrative that the FOMC is on track to resume cutting its policy rate... 12th August 2025 · 4 mins read
US Rapid Response US Consumer Prices (Jul. 2025) There was another narrative shift for the Fed in the July CPI data, with tariff effects once again barely perceptible but a stronger gain in services prices pointing to another above-target gain in... 12th August 2025 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Why the stock market may not care if the Fed disappoints A simple argument can be made that the US stock market would falter next month if the Fed didn’t cut rates, the logic being that Treasury yields would rise and reduce the present value of firms’... 11th August 2025 · 4 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Weaker data support September rate cut The weaker housing and trade data released this week support our call for a September rate cut, a view which investors are beginning to come round to. 8th August 2025 · 5 mins read
US Economics Weekly US Weekly: Exports resilient despite trade war The trade deficit narrowed to $60.2bn in June, from $71.5bn. This was the smallest deficit in almost two years, with a normalisation in pharmaceutical goods imports causing total imports to decline by... 8th August 2025 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily Will the post-payrolls calm last? After notching one of their biggest 1-day falls in recent years last Friday, Treasury yields have this week traded in a historically tight range despite no shortage of catalysts. If we’re right to... 8th August 2025 · 5 mins read
