US Rapid Response US Personal Income & Spending (Aug. 2026) The data dump today shows that core price pressures are slightly less firm than feared and provides some support to our view that the Fed will pause in October. Nonetheless, with economic activity... 30th September 2026 · 3 mins read
Global Economic Outlook Weathering the energy shock We expect the global economy to remain resilient in the face of the energy shock. In Asia, many governments will continue to shield their economies from the worst of higher energy prices. In most DMs... 30th September 2026 · 46 mins read
Capital Daily Where to hide from the bond market rout Most assets would be affected if US yields continued to rise, but some – including bonds in economies with less-ingrained price pressures and weak currencies – might be the best of a bad bunch. 30th September 2026 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Equity resilience to bond yield surge won’t last forever While bond markets have been largely in hock to energy prices over recent weeks, headline equity indices have generally held up well in the face of surging bond yields. In large part, that reflects... 29th September 2026 · 4 mins read
US Housing Market Rapid Response US Case-Shiller/FHFA House Prices (Jul. 2026) House prices remained resilient in July but will eventually come under pressure as the latest rise in mortgage rates to their current level of 7.1% takes a toll. We expect prices to be unchanged over... 29th September 2026 · 2 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada GDP (Jul. 2026) The unchanged GDP reading in July and small projected rise in August should mean GDP growth slowed to around 1.4% annualised in the third quarter, given the weakness we expect this month amid the hit... 29th September 2026 · 2 mins read
China Economics Update US-China tariff tweaks don’t change the bigger picture The US and China have announced significant tariff cuts on goods covered by the new bilateral Board of Trade. But the scheme only covers “non-sensitive” goods that make up a small share of China’s... 28th September 2026 · 4 mins read
Bonds Update Treasury sell-off looks overdone The surge in the 10-year Treasury yield to ~5.25% reflects higher oil prices and a strong US economy more than AI debt issuance or fiscal concerns. We continue to forecast this yield to fall this year... 28th September 2026 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily There are still reasons for optimism on US Treasuries Our base case remains that the Treasury rout will eventually turn into a rally, even though the risks of an even deeper sell-off are clearly growing. 28th September 2026 · 5 mins read
US Economics Weekly The Fed is unlikely to go as far as markets expect While the commentary from Fed officials this week suggests there is broad agreement on the FOMC that it has more near-term work to do, we are not convinced that the committee will tighten policy by as... 25th September 2026 · 6 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly How much excess capacity actually is there? Signs that the output gap could be widening suggest firms will continue to struggle to pass on higher input costs to consumers. This supports our view that investors have gotten ahead of themselves in... 25th September 2026 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Two points for markets on the US-China trade talks We think the contentious US-China trade negotiations are much more important for Chinese equities than US ones. Meanwhile, the current backdrop favours a further renminbi rally. 25th September 2026 · 4 mins read
US Commercial Property Chart Pack US Commercial Property Chart Pack Q3 2026 All-property capital values continue to hold up. But valuations already looked stretched prior to bond yield rises seen in recent weeks. With confidence in the recovery sagging, the outlook for... 24th September 2026 · 0 mins read
US Economic Outlook Strong growth and firm inflation to prompt more hikes The ongoing strength in AI investment should help to offset the hit to real incomes from the renewed rise in fuel prices, resulting in above-consensus GDP growth of 2.5% next year. That will lead to... 24th September 2026 · 17 mins read
Bonds Focus AI debt boom: implications for Treasuries and corporate bonds Corporate bond issuance by AI-related firms has surged over the past year, particularly at the long end of the curve. This could push up Treasury term premia before long if it continues at this rate... 24th September 2026 · 9 mins read
US Employment Report Preview Improving surveys bode well for payrolls The improvement in the survey indicators bodes well for hiring in September, while payrolls should also benefit from a reversal of the seasonal effects that weighed on hiring at the start of the... 24th September 2026 · 4 mins read
