Capital Daily What a “very soon” end to the war could mean for markets De-escalation hopes have given markets a lift, but we think the effects of the war would, in many cases, persist even if the war did end soon. 1st April 2026 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Growth concerns take centre stage Notwithstanding some positivity in stock markets today, recent market moves – including a big rally in Treasuries and widening credit spreads – point to growing concerns around economic activity. We... 31st March 2026 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update Time to bet against the American consumer? The backdrop of a struggling labour market, already low saving and weak consumer confidence makes it more likely that households will respond to latest real income shock by cutting spending, rather... 31st March 2026 · 5 mins read
US Housing Market Rapid Response US Case-Shiller/FHFA House Prices (Jan. 2026) House prices already losing momentum prior to Iran war The softer 0.2% m/m rise in house prices in January supports our view that the housing market was already losing momentum before the recent jump... 31st March 2026 · 2 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada GDP (Jan. 2026) The rise in GDP in January and projected gain in February leaves first-quarter growth roughly in line with the Bank of Canada’s most recent estimates. While this is still consistent with the Bank... 31st March 2026 · 2 mins read
Equities Update Reasons for caution on US energy equities The energy sector has been the strongest performing sector of the S&P 500 since the conflict in the Middle East began, but our baseline assumption is that most of this outperformance will unwind over... 31st March 2026 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update Will the Iran war undermine AI investment? The Iran war could take some of the momentum out of the AI investment boom but we doubt that it will fundamentally disrupt the overall build-out. 30th March 2026 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Markets’ pain intensifies; fiscal and inflation risks up next? The war’s effects on markets may continue to elude an easy solve, but at least investors aren’t too concerned, yet, about fiscal and inflation risks. 30th March 2026 · 5 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly SEPH paints a brighter picture of employment this year The large decline in the official population data last quarter suggests the Labour Force Survey is still not entirely picking up the collapse in immigration and should therefore give a more... 27th March 2026 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily We doubt this conflict will finally topple tech stocks US tech sectors have been on the back foot over recent days, with valuations falling towards those of the rest of the market. While this echoes the final months of the dotcom bubble, we think these... 27th March 2026 · 4 mins read
US Economics Weekly Manufacturing dragging down non-residential construction We do not expect the war in Iran to dent the data centre buildout but, with manufacturing construction investment falling sharply, we may still be overestimating the outlook for non-residential... 27th March 2026 · 8 mins read
Commodities Weekly Certainty and conviction in short supply among energy execs The latest Dallas Fed survey suggests that US energy executives are cautiously optimistic about the near-term outlook, but it also underlines how the lack of certainty is complicating investment... 27th March 2026 · 6 mins read
US Employment Report Preview Payrolls to rebound after weather and strike disruption We estimate that non-farm payrolls rebounded by an above-consensus 125,000 in March following the disruption from severe weather and strikes in February. Nonetheless, the unemployment rate is likely... 26th March 2026 · 4 mins read
US Chart Pack US Chart Pack (Mar. 2026) Higher oil prices will result in slightly softer consumption in the near term than we previously expected, but we doubt recent events will derail the AI buildout. Thanks to strong AI-related... 25th March 2026 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Did an AI bubble in the US stock market already burst? If the presence or otherwise of an AI-fuelled bubble in the stock market is determined solely by the relative valuation of its technology sectors, then any such bubble in the S&P 500 has already burst... 25th March 2026 · 4 mins read
Canada Chart Pack Canada Chart Pack (Mar. 2026) In our baseline scenario, WTI has already peaked but still averages $80 per barrel over the rest of the year, acting as a modest net positive for GDP growth and boosting headline inflation... 25th March 2026 · 1 min read
