FX Markets Weekly Wrap FX Weekly: A decisive moment for the dollar? The US dollar has generally lost further ground this week and the DXY index currently sits at around its lowest level since February 2022. This index has now fallen by more at this stage in the year... 27th June 2025 · 5 mins read
US Rapid Response US Personal Income & Spending (May 2025) The rise in core PCE prices in June was partly due to a rise in core goods prices, but the early impact of the tariffs has been unexpectedly muted. Meanwhile, the contraction in real consumer spending... 27th June 2025 · 2 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada GDP (Apr. 2025) The worse-than-expected 0.1% m/m contraction in GDP in April and equivalent sized estimated fall in May suggests that growth was flat at best in the second quarter, with a clear risk of a contraction... 27th June 2025 · 2 mins read
US Economic Outlook US Outlook: Trump policy mix still mildly stagflationary We expect tariffs to have only a modest impact on both real economic growth and price inflation. Admittedly, we do see annualised GDP growth slowing to around 1.5% in the second half of this year, but... 26th June 2025 · 16 mins read
US Employment Report Preview US Employment Report Preview: Employment growth gradually cooling We forecast a smaller 130,000 gain in non-farm payrolls in June. We expect the unemployment rate to remain unchanged at 4.2%, while average hourly earnings growth likely held steady too, at 3.9% y/y. 26th June 2025 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily SLR change not a panacea for troubled Treasuries The Fed’s proposed loosening of supplementary leverage ratio (SLR) rules for big banks might help to improve demand for Treasuries, but we’re not yet persuaded it will outweigh the other headwinds... 26th June 2025 · 4 mins read
US Rapid Response US Durable Goods Orders & Advance Economic Indicators (May 2025) The surge in durable goods orders in May was mostly driven by the Qatar Airways-Boeing deal announced during President Trump’s visit, but the small rise in core orders shows there were signs of... 26th June 2025 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update Where do fiscal deficits need to shrink most? Most major DMs need to shrink their primary budget deficits significantly and most will find it hard to do so. This will exacerbate growing worries about fiscal sustainability. The US and France have... 26th June 2025 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Update No relief in sight for US CRE development A downbeat view on new supply underpins our overall CRE outlook. In the short term, the risks skew firmly to the downside and recent economic disruption reinforces this, while further out tight... 25th June 2025 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Rapid Response US New Home Sales (May 2025) The large fall in new home sales in May cancels out all of the positivity of the past couple of months and serves as a valuable reminder that buyer activity can only rise so far with mortgage rates... 25th June 2025 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Update “One Canada” boost won’t come overnight The One Canadian Economy Act (Bill C-5) is a positive step towards reducing dependency on the US in the long run. But it will do little to offset the blow to trade from tariffs given that even fast... 25th June 2025 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Mideast truce reduces one risk; FOMC schism next? The overnight announcement of a ceasefire between Israel/US and Iran has brought commodity and financial markets largely back to their pre-conflict square one. While tensions remain high and could... 24th June 2025 · 5 mins read
US Commercial Property Outlook US Commercial Property Outlook: More capital value falls to come in all sectors this year We think the short-term outlook for capital values is poor, with valuations looking stretched across all measures. This does not appear to be reflected in other forecasts, meaning our forecasts for... 24th June 2025 · 22 mins read
Canada Economics Update Manufacturers struggling to escape tariffs despite USMCA Data from the first two months of US tariffs being in effect suggest that both Canadian and Mexican manufacturers were struggling to make their exports USMCA-compliant, which poses a downward risk to... 24th June 2025 · 5 mins read
US Housing Market Rapid Response US Case-Shiller/FHFA House Prices (Apr. 2025) After falling in March, the further 0.3% m/m decline in house prices in April raises the risk that prices are entering a sustained downturn, as the market finally buckles under the weight of near-7%... 24th June 2025 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response Fed's Powell offers no hint of near-term rate cut Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s prepared semi-annual testimony to the House today offered no hint that a rate cut is coming any time soon. Despite the recent dovish comments from Trump-appointed Governors... 24th June 2025 · 2 mins read
