Canada Rapid Response Canada Retail Sales (Jul. 2026) The larger-than-expected 1.1% m/m fall in retail sales volumes in July isn’t the end of the world, given the advance indicator implies that sales volumes fully rebounded in August, but consumer... 24th September 2026 · 2 mins read
Bonds Update Solving the US debt problem could be bad for Treasuries It’s a misconception that lower Treasury yields are essential to solving the US debt problem. Admittedly, Treasury yields may fall if, as we saw in the 1990s, the solution mainly involves fiscal... 24th September 2026 · 5 mins read
US Economics Focus How might a US fiscal crisis play out? The ideal solution to the unsustainable fiscal situation is that Congress commits to a gradual fiscal adjustment. But as that seems unlikely, the big risk is that the Fed eventually finds itself in a... 23rd September 2026 · 23 mins read
US Housing Market Update Higher rates and tariffs to continue to limit homebuilding The renewed rise in mortgage rates reinforces our view that housing starts will fall further in the coming years, keeping downward pressure on residential investment. This does not imply an impending... 23rd September 2026 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update US export ban would add fuel to the diesel crisis A ban on diesel exports by the US would exacerbate the existing severe strains in the global diesel market and drive prices outside of the US even higher in the short term. Nonetheless, given that a... 23rd September 2026 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Debt issuance may raise AI stocks’ exposure to yields That AI-related stock market sectors have tended to fare best when oil prices have tumbled partly reflects their high market betas and, increasingly, their sensitivity to bond yields as AI-related... 22nd September 2026 · 4 mins read
Climate Economics Update Countering China Shock 2.0 will carry a climate cost China’s ability to produce and export green technologies at a low cost is a key driver of renewable and electric vehicle rollouts, including in the EU. As a result, efforts to now de-risk from China... 22nd September 2026 · 5 mins read
US Economics Update Midterms 2026: What’s at stake? The big risk after the midterms is that emboldened Democrats try to leverage the debt ceiling to achieve their policy aims, raising the possibility of a debt default. Admittedly, Republicans may lift... 21st September 2026 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily The AI bubble hasn’t burst yet We don’t think the fall in tech stocks’ relative valuations means the AI bubble has burst yet, and the rally may have a bit further to go. Meanwhile, there’s potential for market-moving news at the US... 21st September 2026 · 6 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Carney opts for diversification over retaliation Ottawa sent a clear message this week that it will not engage in further escalation of the trade war with the US, looking past the recently announced import ban to instead focus on opportunities... 18th September 2026 · 4 mins read
US Economics Weekly What to make of the Fed’s hawkish tilt While we expect the Fed to hike interest rates by more than the latest Summary of Economic Projections imply in the near term, we also think a slowdown in growth in 2028 will force the Fed to... 18th September 2026 · 4 mins read
US Commercial Property Valuation Monitor US Commercial Property Valuation Monitor Q3 2026 All-property valuation scores saw little movement in Q2, as property and alternative asset yields held steady. But the sharp rise in Treasury yields since then points to a worsening in valuations in... 18th September 2026 · 1 min read
US Rapid Response US Industrial Production (Aug. 2026) The broad-based decline in manufacturing output in August suggests the factory sector may be on a weaker footing than we had previously thought, particularly as this does not capture the latest rise... 18th September 2026 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily Warsh puts his foot down, boosting the dollar While much of the drop in long-term government bond yields over the past couple of days reflects relief from lower oil prices, policy news from the Fed and the BoE (which has slowed its QT programme)... 17th September 2026 · 4 mins read
US Housing Market Update US Pending Home Sales & Mortgage Apps. (Aug. 2026) 30-year fixed mortgage rates nearly hit 7% in the week ending 11th September and are likely to have risen further since, with the 10-year Treasury yield – their closely correlated benchmark – briefly... 17th September 2026 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Update Bank of Canada likely to drag its feet a bit longer on hikes The Bank of Canada’s communications suggest it is unlikely to hike in October unless the September CPI data deliver a large upside surprise, or oil prices rise much further. More generally, despite... 17th September 2026 · 3 mins read
