Equities Update S&P 500: onwards and upwards for this year and next We are revising up our end-2025 forecast for the S&P 500, from 6,250 to 6,750. And we now project that the index will finish 2026 at 7,250, which is above our previous forecast of 7,000. 8th August 2025 · 6 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Labour Force Survey (Jul. 2025) The Labour Force Survey has once again made a mockery of the economist consensus, with the surprise 83,000 surge in employment in June followed by a 40,800 slump last month. We are now a bit more... 8th August 2025 · 2 mins read
FX Markets Update The case for a dollar rebound despite that payrolls shock We still expect the dollar to recover some ground over the rest of 2025 as interest rate differentials shift back in favour of the US and some of the policy uncertainty discount evident in the dollar... 8th August 2025 · 5 mins read
US Rapid Response Miran a good pick for the Fed President Donald Trump’s decision to nominate Stephen Miran to replace Adriana Kugler as Fed Governor, albeit only on a temporary basis to begin with, is a welcome surprise. Miran is currently the... 7th August 2025 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update Is the economy already benefitting from an AI boom? Investment in both computer hardware and software surged in the first half of this year, which could be a sign that the AI boom is now boosting economic growth. Most of that hardware is imported... 7th August 2025 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update Integrity of economic data safe for now President Trump’s firing of the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) commissioner marks another troubling step in his administration’s pressure campaign against Federal institutions. Still, we think a... 6th August 2025 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Who’s really worried about the US economy? Although there are growing concerns in some quarters about the health of the US economy, neither equity analysts nor investors seem worried. 6th August 2025 · 4 mins read
US Commercial Property Update A mid-year stock-take on US sector and metro level job growth We expect office-based jobs growth to remain at a standstill through 2026 as the tech sector cuts back and AI fills some of the gap. At the metro level though, our expectations are broadly unchanged... 6th August 2025 · 4 mins read
Canada Economics Update The Labour Force Survey is overstating jobs growth The Labour Force Survey is overstating population growth and therefore almost certainly overestimating employment growth. The alternative Survey of Employment, Payrolls and Hours points to much weaker... 6th August 2025 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update Will healthcare continue to boost payrolls growth? There are several headwinds to healthcare & social assistance employment that suggest it is unlikely to continue growing at its recent rapid pace, although we doubt payroll gains in the sector will... 6th August 2025 · 4 mins read
US Housing Market Rapid Response US Mortgage Applications (Jul 2025) The fall in home purchase mortgage applications in July still leaves them roughly in line with where they started the year, and continuing to point to a rebound in existing home sales. While some... 6th August 2025 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update Get used to weaker payrolls growth The July Employment Report was a taste of what is to come, with payroll gains set to be much weaker in the coming quarters than has been the case in recent years. This is the new normal amid the... 5th August 2025 · 4 mins read
Commodities Chart Pack Commodities Chart Pack (Aug. 2025) Oil market remains unfazed by geopolitics for now Despite President Trump’s threat to enforce 100% secondary tariffs on buyers of Russian energy, which could effectively choke off up to 5% of global... 5th August 2025 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Bonds aren’t swaying growth’s relentless march over value We don’t expect the relentless march of ‘growth’ over ‘value’ in the S&P 500 to end soon, regardless of what happens to ‘risk-free’ real Treasuries. 5th August 2025 · 4 mins read
US Rapid Response US ISM Services Index (Jul. 2025) The ISM services survey highlights the challenges for the Fed in the coming months, with the activity and employment indicators weakening even as the prices paid index rose to a new cyclical high. 5th August 2025 · 1 min read
US Rapid Response US International Trade (Jun 2025) The narrowing of the trade deficit was mainly due to a normalisation in pharmaceutical imports and while exports appeared weak, this was primarily due to a fall in gold exports. The big picture is... 5th August 2025 · 2 mins read
