US Rapid Response US University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Apr 2026) The plunge in consumer sentiment to a record low in April lends some support to our forecast that real consumption growth will be weak this quarter, even if the link between sentiment and spending has... 10th April 2026 · 2 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Labour Force Survey (Mar 2026) March’s uneventful Labour Force Survey, paired with the drop back in oil prices in recent days, supports our view that the Bank of Canada will be content to wait until next year to change policy. 10th April 2026 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US Consumer Prices (Mar 2026) The jump in headline CPI inflation to 3.3% in March, from 2.4%, was as expected due to the surge in energy prices, with the more important development for the Fed being the lack of any major... 10th April 2026 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update Brent-WTI spread would normalise if Iran conflict ends The conflict in Iran has distorted the spread between Brent and WTI crude oil prices. But if the recently agreed ceasefire holds and oil starts flowing more freely through the Strait of Hormuz, we... 9th April 2026 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily What to make of equity resilience Equities staged a historic rally yesterday and have generally held on to those gains today, even as moves in other markets have partly unwound. A lot of optimism now looks priced in ahead of the... 9th April 2026 · 3 mins read
US Rapid Response US Personal Income & Spending (Feb. 2026) The slightly softer-than-expected 0.10% m/m rise in real consumption in February, together with the downward revision to January’s estimate to show real spending unchanged, puts first-quarter... 9th April 2026 · 2 mins read
Global Commercial Property Update Retail and hospitality sectors to bear the brunt of Iran War The effects of the Iran war will feed through to property occupiers through two main channels: higher energy costs and lower household disposable income growth. The impact on sectors will vary based... 9th April 2026 · 4 mins read
US Rapid Response US Fed Minutes (Mar 17-18) The minutes of the Fed’s mid-March meeting suggest that the spike in oil prices led to more concern about the upside risks to inflation than the downside risks to the labour market, with “some”... 8th April 2026 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update Major fiscal stimulus ahead of midterms looks unlikely The Republican-held Congress is likely to use its sole budget reconciliation for this fiscal year to pass a narrow bill to fund Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) and top up the Pentagon’s... 8th April 2026 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Rapid Response US Mortgage Applications (Mar. 2026) As the timeliest housing activity data we get, the drop in home purchase mortgage applications throughout March is the first clear evidence of homebuyers pulling back in response to higher borrowing... 8th April 2026 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily Even a war didn’t dampen investors’ appetite for risk much If the ceasefire does mark the “beginning of the end” of the war, then the conflict will have had surprisingly little effect on risk premia in US markets. But that doesn’t mean, in our view, that they... 8th April 2026 · 4 mins read
US Rapid Response US Durable Goods Orders (Feb. 2026) The rise in core (ex. transport) durable goods orders in February shows American industry was battling on ahead of the surge in oil prices, despite the heightened uncertainty caused by tariffs... 7th April 2026 · 2 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Listed BDC data highlight mounting private credit distress While some of the recent slump in listed US Business Development Companies’ (BDCs) valuations may be overdone, several of the risk metrics we track suggest that stress is building beneath the surface... 7th April 2026 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily Could equities recover even if the war heated up further? History suggests that US equities and oil won’t necessarily hit their turning points at the same time during this conflict, but we suspect they’ll nonetheless remain closely linked in the near term. 7th April 2026 · 4 mins read
US Rapid Response US Employment Report (Mar. 2026) The larger-than-expected rebound in non-farm payrolls in March mainly reflects a reversal of the strike and weather effects that weighed on hiring in February, rather than being a sign that the labour... 3rd April 2026 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily Treasuries offering little protection against stocks Yet another volatile 24hours in financial markets saw Treasuries offer little protection against falls in US equities, as has been the case throughout the war. We doubt it will suddenly become a more... 2nd April 2026 · 4 mins read
