Canada Rapid Response Canada GDP (Q2 2026 and Jun.) The breakdown of second-quarter GDP growth was even better than the solid 3.3% annualised gain might suggest, although the preliminary estimate of unchanged GDP in July and the headwinds from new US... 28th August 2026 · 2 mins read
Commodities Update What to make of the US-Venezuela oil deal? If the US gains access to greater reserves of heavy-sour crude from Venezuela, it could reduce the US’s reliance on crude oil imports from Canada and Mexico. However, any deal would need to involve... 28th August 2026 · 3 mins read
Bank of Canada Watch New tariff uncertainty supports Bank’s calls to be patient The Bank of Canada will likely highlight the need to balance the worsening growth and inflation prospects brought about by fresh tariffs at next week’s meeting. We therefore still expect the policy... 27th August 2026 · 6 mins read
Canada Economics Focus Can Canada become an oil and LNG superpower? The Canadian government has significantly shifted tack over recent years and now wants to double down on the country’s status as a net energy exporter by supporting large-scale oil and LNG... 27th August 2026 · 17 mins read
US Employment Report Preview Temporary Payroll Shock There is scope for some of the weakness in July’s employment report to reverse, but the administration’s decision to revoke Temporary Protected Status (TPS) for roughly 350,000 people in late July is... 27th August 2026 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Concentrated earnings probably mean concentrated returns Although S&P 500 earnings have become even more dominated by a handful of companies, that hasn’t consistently translated into larger companies outperforming smaller ones lately. We expect big-tech... 27th August 2026 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Will term premia plunge again when the AI bubble bursts? Although there are many reasons to expect recent upward pressure on the 10-year Treasury term premium to persist, they could collectively be more than outweighed for a while by a bursting of the... 26th August 2026 · 5 mins read
Bonds Focus How hedge funds are shaking up sovereign bond markets The increased footprint of hedge funds in sovereign bond markets is one reason why these markets will remain susceptible to frequent bouts of volatility. This Focus examines, more broadly, the risks... 26th August 2026 · 19 mins read
US Rapid Response US Personal Income & Spending (Jul. 2026), GDP (Q2 2026, 2nd est.) & Durable Goods Orders (Jul. 2026) The slightly above-target-consistent rise in the core PCE deflator in July won’t be enough to convince the Fed that they’ll need to hike rates as soon as September. But with the annual rate still at 3... 26th August 2026 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update Recent rise in yields won’t sap the economy’s momentum The recent sell-off in long-end Treasuries does not amount to a tightening in financial conditions that will slow the economy. Accordingly, we still expect the Fed to raise interest rates by year-end. 25th August 2026 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Private-sector issuance not yet undermining Treasuries Despite gross issuance of long-dated US corporate bonds and other private-sector bonds surging over recent months, we doubt this is the main culprit behind the rise of Treasury yields over this period... 25th August 2026 · 3 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Unveils Retaliatory Tariffs and Relief Package The retaliatory tariffs announced today largely match the Section 338 tariffs imposed on Canada last week, reflecting a response which is politically popular but economically insignificant – and... 25th August 2026 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Rapid Response US Case-Shiller/FHFA House Prices (Jun. 2026) Even though the 0.2% m/m rise in house prices in June was stronger than we expected, we remain reasonably confident that prices will lose momentum heading into the third quarter as the backward... 25th August 2026 · 2 mins read
Commodities Rapid Response “Economic D-Day” Sanctions (Aug. 2026) The announcement of the “greatest financial offensive ever” by the US ups the ante on Iran and could widen the divide between factions in the country. But with the renewed US naval blockade already... 24th August 2026 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily More bond pressure, more AI wobbles We don’t think it’s time to panic about long-dated government bonds, even though the headwinds they face are gathering strength. 24th August 2026 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Term premia aren’t the only risk to Treasuries Although the main cause of weakness in long-dated Treasury bonds at the moment seems to be rising term premia, increasing ‘risk-neutral’ yields could prove just as problematic to them in the longer... 21st August 2026 · 5 mins read
