US Employment Report Preview Health care likely to be the key driver of payrolls again We estimate that non-farm payrolls rose by 80,000 in February, but that the unemployment rate will nonetheless rebound to 4.4%. 26th February 2026 · 4 mins read
Climate Economics Monthly Backlash against key green policies has further to run While President Trump’s repeal of the “endangerment finding” could have a long-lasting impact on US emissions, the broader rollback of climate policy under Trump already appears to be weighing on... 26th February 2026 · 4 mins read
Equities Update Weakness in China’s equities could be short-lived After a weak start to the year, we expect Chinese equities to regain their footing over the coming months, partly because their valuations aren’t especially stretched. Moreover, we expect the AI rally... 26th February 2026 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Three reasons to be positive on the S&P 500 Strong profit growth, as emphasised by recent earnings reports, is one reason to think that the S&P 500 will do well over the rest of this year. In fact, we think there are at least three reasons. 26th February 2026 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update How the new tariff backdrop affects Canada & Mexico In this Update, we answer some of the questions we have received on how the new US tariff regime (see here ) will impact Canada and Mexico. The big picture is that Canada and Mexico’s weighted-average... 25th February 2026 · 4 mins read
US Commercial Property Valuation Monitor US Commercial Property Valuation Monitor Q1 2026 All-property valuation scores worsened slightly in Q4 2025, but remained in the fair value zone, despite property cap rates inching lower once again. Looking ahead, we think appraised cap rates still... 25th February 2026 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Where next for the US stock market? Today’s rally leaves major US equity indices stuck in a range just shy of their all-time high. We think the next move that sticks will be higher, not lower. 24th February 2026 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Rapid Response US Case-Shiller/FHFA House Prices (Dec. 2025) The marked reacceleration in house price growth in December, to 5.5% on a three-month annualised basis from negative territory only four months prior, reflects strengthening housing demand as mortgage... 24th February 2026 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update Questions & answers on the new US tariff regime The imposition of a 10% Section 122 tariff on all countries leaves the weighted-average US tariff rate about 3.5%-points lower than was the case under the IEEPA framework, although the difference will... 23rd February 2026 (Updated 24th February 2026) · 8 mins read
Capital Daily Tariff turbulence & US-Iran stand-off keep investors on their toes Tariff uncertainty is back after the US Supreme Court’s ruling and President Trump’s response over the weekend, while US-Iran tensions continue to edge higher. In a week short on major economic data... 23rd February 2026 · 6 mins read
Global Economics Rapid Response US Trump hikes new global tariff rate to 15% In a social media post this morning, President Trump announced that he intends to raise his new global tariff rate from the 10% rate announced yesterday, to the maximum 15% allowed under Section 122... 21st February 2026 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Rapid Response Trump imposes alternative 10% global tariff under Section 122 In a hastily-arranged press conference to respond to the Supreme Court’s ruling that his IEEPA-related reciprocal tariffs were illegal, President Trump has announced that he will instead be imposing a... 20th February 2026 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Trade reorientation away from US has a distance to go Today’s ruling that Donald Trump’s use of IEEPA tariffs was illegal will not deter policymakers in Ottawa from continuing to prioritise the reorientation of trade flows toward other markets, with... 20th February 2026 · 5 mins read
US Economics Weekly IEEPA ruling unlikely to pull PCE inflation back to 2% The price data this week made for grim reading for the Fed, implying that core PCE inflation rose above 3% last month. The Supreme Court's tariff ruling could help to bring down goods prices in the... 20th February 2026 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Stock market rotation is a warning of trouble ahead We doubt this year’s rotation in US equities will be heavily influenced by today’s ruling from SCOTUS that Donald Trump’s IEEPA tariffs are illegal, even if the president now tries to raise tariff... 20th February 2026 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Rapid Response SC rules that Trump's IEEPA tariffs are illegal In a 6-3 vote, the Supreme Court ruled that President Trump was wrong to use the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) as a justification for imposing his far-reaching reciprocal tariffs... 20th February 2026 · 3 mins read
