Canada Economics Weekly Bank still calm about second-round inflation effects The Summary of Deliberations from the Bank of Canada’s March policy meetings gave no indication that policymakers are overly concerned about second‑round inflationary pressures stemming from the... 2nd April 2026 · 5 mins read
US Economics Weekly Iran war hits home at gasoline price surpasses $4 The consequences of the Iran war became even more conspicuous for consumers this week, with the national average gasoline price rising above $4 a gallon for the first time since 2022. Thankfully, the... 2nd April 2026 · 8 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada International Trade (Feb. 2026) February’s further widening in the goods trade deficit is not quite as bad as it first appears, with a surge in volatile gold and other precious metal imports accounting for most of the move, while... 2nd April 2026 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US International Trade (Feb. 2026) Large gold outflows were once again met by sizeable computer imports to keep the trade deficit largely unchanged in February and our first-quarter GDP growth estimate near to 3%. 2nd April 2026 · 2 mins read
Bonds Focus The retreat from sovereign bond duration Supply/demand dynamics in long-dated sovereign debt markets are deteriorating, with demand from traditional sources waning and supply remaining strong. And now fiscal support in response to the Iran... 2nd April 2026 · 22 mins read
US Rapid Response US ISM Manufacturing Index (Mar. 2026) The slight rise in the ISM Manufacturing Index in March masks the unease among firms evident in the breakdown, with new orders dropping back and supplier delivery times lengthening. The further rise... 1st April 2026 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US Retail Sales (Feb 2026) The stronger-than-expected 0.5% m/m increase in control group retail sales in February suggests that consumption was gaining some momentum ahead of the surge in gasoline prices. Nonetheless... 1st April 2026 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily What a “very soon” end to the war could mean for markets De-escalation hopes have given markets a lift, but we think the effects of the war would, in many cases, persist even if the war did end soon. 1st April 2026 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Growth concerns take centre stage Notwithstanding some positivity in stock markets today, recent market moves – including a big rally in Treasuries and widening credit spreads – point to growing concerns around economic activity. We... 31st March 2026 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update Time to bet against the American consumer? The backdrop of a struggling labour market, already low saving and weak consumer confidence makes it more likely that households will respond to latest real income shock by cutting spending, rather... 31st March 2026 · 5 mins read
US Housing Market Rapid Response US Case-Shiller/FHFA House Prices (Jan. 2026) House prices already losing momentum prior to Iran war The softer 0.2% m/m rise in house prices in January supports our view that the housing market was already losing momentum before the recent jump... 31st March 2026 · 2 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada GDP (Jan. 2026) The rise in GDP in January and projected gain in February leaves first-quarter growth roughly in line with the Bank of Canada’s most recent estimates. While this is still consistent with the Bank... 31st March 2026 · 2 mins read
Equities Update Reasons for caution on US energy equities The energy sector has been the strongest performing sector of the S&P 500 since the conflict in the Middle East began, but our baseline assumption is that most of this outperformance will unwind over... 31st March 2026 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update Will the Iran war undermine AI investment? The Iran war could take some of the momentum out of the AI investment boom but we doubt that it will fundamentally disrupt the overall build-out. 30th March 2026 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Markets’ pain intensifies; fiscal and inflation risks up next? The war’s effects on markets may continue to elude an easy solve, but at least investors aren’t too concerned, yet, about fiscal and inflation risks. 30th March 2026 · 5 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly SEPH paints a brighter picture of employment this year The large decline in the official population data last quarter suggests the Labour Force Survey is still not entirely picking up the collapse in immigration and should therefore give a more... 27th March 2026 · 5 mins read
