US Economics Weekly Bessent twists, will Warsh stick? Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s efforts to keep down the long-end of the yield curve may not have been quite as effective as he hoped, although they do provide a clear signalling mechanism. Bessent... 21st August 2026 · 6 mins read
China Economics Update Transhipment crackdown not a big threat to China’s exports We agree with the White House’s assessment that China’s indirect exports to the US have risen sharply since US tariffs first came into force. But it remains unclear how much of this is illegal... 21st August 2026 · 5 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Core inflation still in the Bank’s favour The firming of core price growth in July likely reflected temporary factors, rather than being a sign that core inflation is set to accelerate. Nonetheless, we expect the GDP data next week to reveal... 21st August 2026 · 5 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Retail Sales (Jun. 2026) The 1.5% m/m jump in retail sales volumes in June confirms solid momentum in consumer spending heading into the third quarter, though the weak July advance estimate suggests that the renewed rise in... 21st August 2026 · 2 mins read
Bonds Update Bessent won’t keep the bond vigilantes at bay forever We suspect long-dated Treasury yields will stabilise over the next few weeks as some calm is restored following the recent bout of volatility in global sovereign bond markets. But we expect term... 21st August 2026 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily USD: Our currency, our problem? The dollar has come under renewed pressure, in part due to a resurgent “debasement” narrative. While we continue to think such concerns are somewhat overblown, and that the economic backdrop overall... 20th August 2026 · 5 mins read
US Commercial Property Update REITs and appraisals divergence clouds outlook for values A significant divergence in sector weightings means a large performance gap has opened between REITs and the appraisal-based indices over the last two years. We have therefore created a re-weighted... 20th August 2026 · 3 mins read
US Chart Pack US Chart Pack (Aug. 2026) Despite some softness in recent months, we expect a continuation of the AI capex boom and a broadening of investment to drive above-consensus GDP growth, which should rise to 2.6% next year. That... 20th August 2026 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Canada Chart Pack (Aug. 2026) While the economy gained momentum in the second quarter, we expect GDP growth to slow again in the second half of the year amid ongoing uncertainty around CUSMA negotiations. The combination of soft... 20th August 2026 · 1 min read
US Rapid Response US Fed Minutes (Jul. 28-29) The minutes of the Fed’s July meeting confirmed that the rate-setting committee had become more hawkish since the June meeting but, with the inflation, labour market and activity data since then all... 19th August 2026 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily AI explains why US equities are largely indifferent to bonds Today’s big retreat in long-dated Treasury yields, triggered by the news of a doubling of liquidity support, gave the S&P 500 a fillip after a prior slump in bonds had begun to take a toll on the... 19th August 2026 · 5 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Office sector turnaround clear in Q2 RICS survey The Q2 RICS survey suggests that while Iran War-related uncertainty isn’t derailing the recovery, it is dampening its pace. But the office sector appears to be emerging from the clouds that have... 19th August 2026 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update Little chance of a big rebound in labour force participation It is likely that the participation rate will rebound slightly in the next few months, but the big picture is that population ageing and the crackdown on immigration will continue to hold back labour... 19th August 2026 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Groundhog day for bonds; what to make of the sell-off While long-term government bond yields have dropped back a little today, their recent surge suggests investors are losing patience with fiscal profligacy. But unless the sell-off intensifies, equities... 18th August 2026 · 4 mins read
US Housing Market Update US Pending Home Sales & Mortgage Apps. (Jul. 2026) The renewed rise in mortgage rates in July squeezed would-be home buyers’ budgets, causing pending home sales and purchase mortgage applications both to fall. This points to further downward pressure... 18th August 2026 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Focus How to think about the bond market sell-off The recent bond market sell-off appears to reflect investors demanding greater compensation for fiscal, geopolitical and policy uncertainty. We expect this shift to prove relatively persistent. The... 18th August 2026 · 15 mins read
