US Housing Market Rapid Response US New Home Sales (Nov. & Dec. 2025) New home sales remained solid in November and December, even as the downward march in mortgage rates paused for breath. Because sales are recorded at contract signing, they likely softened in January... 20th February 2026 · 2 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Retail Sales (Dec. 2025) The unchanged level of retail sales volumes in December confirms that they fell over the quarter a whole, which would have dragged down goods consumption and contributed to the likely weak result for... 20th February 2026 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US GDP (Q4 2025) The government shutdown ended up being a much bigger drag on the economy than the Treasury’s data had suggested, with fourth-quarter GDP growth slowing to 1.4% annualised. Federal expenditure... 20th February 2026 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Update Glittering TSX unlikely to boost consumption by much There does not appear to have been any meaningful wealth effects on consumption from the skyrocketing TSX, partly because households have faced offsetting falls in house prices. We expect the TSX to... 19th February 2026 · 4 mins read
US Economics Update Will the AI buildout be inflationary or disinflationary? The evidence so far shows that the inflationary effects of stronger demand from the AI buildout remain narrow, whereas the disinflationary effects of stronger productivity growth already appear to be... 19th February 2026 · 5 mins read
US Rapid Response US International Trade (Dec 2025) The usual suspects were behind the widening in the trade deficit at the end of last year: gold, pharmaceuticals and IT equipment. December’s trade figures leave our Q4 GDP growth estimate at a solid 3... 19th February 2026 · 2 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada International Trade (Dec 2025) The equal sized gains in export and import volumes in December confirm that net trade made a positive contribution to fourth-quarter GDP. However, looking through the volatile components that drove... 19th February 2026 · 2 mins read
Climate Economics Update Carbon capture only a stopgap for fossil fuel emissions Carbon capture technologies are often put forward as a solution to lowering emissions from hard-to-abate sectors, but given the high costs involved, their uptake has been slow. This Update addresses... 19th February 2026 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Fed & Iran war risks threaten Treasuries The threats are mounting to US Treasuries, and we think yields will rise over the rest of the year. 19th February 2026 · 3 mins read
US Rapid Response US Fed Minutes (Jan 27-28) The minutes of the Fed’s late January policy meeting are arguably a little more hawkish than expected with “several participants indicat[ing] that they would have supported a two-sided description of... 18th February 2026 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Update Canada Housing Watch (Feb. 2026) The housing market weakened sharply in January, with home sales and house prices both plunging. While the housing market has been struggling for some time, the record-breaking winter storm that hit... 18th February 2026 · 4 mins read
US Economics Update A primer on the USMCA joint review We think the popularity of the trade agreement among domestic firms, the potential for backlash from an increasingly assertive Congress, and the likelihood of intervention by the Supreme Court should... 18th February 2026 · 7 mins read
US Rapid Response US Industrial Production (Jan 2026) January’s stronger production data were accompanied by downward revisions to previous months, limiting the good news. However, signs of broadening strength in production last month paired with the... 18th February 2026 · 2 mins read
Global Commercial Property Update Supply cuts won’t spark immediate logistics recovery Global new industrial supply has been contracting rapidly, hitting its lowest level in a decade as developers pull back. However, we expect demand to fall short of supply again this year, delaying a... 18th February 2026 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Rapid Response US Housing Starts (Nov & Dec 2025) While housing starts ended the year strongly, and permit data suggest that January’s number should be even more positive, we continue to expect tightening financial conditions will pull starts back... 18th February 2026 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US Durable Goods Orders (Dec. 2025) The fall in durable goods orders in December reflected a drag from volatile commercial aircraft orders, whereas core orders (ex. transport) continued their recent good run, supported by the AI... 18th February 2026 · 2 mins read
