FX Markets Weekly Wrap FX Weekly: A closer look at Trump tariff risks and currencies The greenback has rebounded this week as market participants have started to take President Trump’s continued tariff threats a bit more seriously and risk sentiment has soured. Even so, we think that... 28th February 2025 · 5 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Canada Weekly: Bank weighing up strong GDP versus tariff threats There were mixed signals from the White House this week over whether the 25% tariffs on imports from Canada will come into effect as scheduled on March 4th. Providing that does not happen, then the... 28th February 2025 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily The unravelling of US exceptionalism This week’s pull-back in the US stock market and the unravelling of US exceptionalism in equities since Donald Trump returned to the White House on 20th January have been driven by growing concerns... 28th February 2025 · 5 mins read
US Commercial Property Chart Pack US Commercial Property Chart Pack (Q1 2025) All-property values edged down by 0.1% in Q4 but the magnitude of decline narrowed. Appraisal-based cap rates also fell for the first time since mid-2022. However, we still believe appraisals have... 28th February 2025 · 1 min read
US Rapid Response US Personal Income & Spending (Jan. 2025) The 0.28% m/m rise in core PCE prices in January was a big improvement on last year’s 0.5% m/m gain, but the 2.6% annual core inflation rate is still too hot for the Fed’s liking and, with... 28th February 2025 · 2 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada GDP (Q4 2024 and Dec) The 2.6% annualised gain in GDP last quarter was much stronger than the Bank of Canada’s forecast for a 1.8% increase and was accompanied by sizeable upward revisions to data in previous quarters... 28th February 2025 · 2 mins read
Commodities Weekly Commodities Weekly: Trump throws more curveballs at commodity markets President Trump loomed large over commodity markets once again this week, with tariff threats and tighter sanctions. Next week, the focus will turn to the National People’s Congress in China and an... 28th February 2025 · 4 mins read
US Employment Report Preview US Employment Report Preview: Employment growth to evade federal cutbacks for now We forecast a 170,000 gain in non-farm payrolls in February, given that most of the recent cuts to the federal workforce won’t yet have shown up in the data and employment in weather-sensitive sectors... 27th February 2025 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update Is Trump’s opening to Russia a “Reverse Nixon”? President Trump’s attempts to reset relations with Russia have led some to suggest that he may be attempting to break apart the Sino-Russian alliance as Nixon did in the early 1970s (although in Nixon... 27th February 2025 · 7 mins read
Global Markets Update Is the “Trump trade” already over? Notwithstanding recent setbacks, we continue to think that this year will see a major rally in US equity markets, higher Treasury yields, and a stronger dollar. 27th February 2025 · 6 mins read
US Rapid Response US Durable Goods Orders (Jan. 2025) The increase in durable goods orders in January was due to the volatile transport component, while core orders were unchanged. Although underlying capital goods shipments fell, business investment... 27th February 2025 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update Could uncertainty weigh on the global economy? Instead of clearing up the uncertainty about the direction of US economic policy, Donald Trump’s victory in last November’s presidential election has only magnified it, with threats of massive... 27th February 2025 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily We still expect a further tech-led S&P 500 rally Despite growing concerns that tech stocks are "priced for perfection", and the ongoing threat of tariffs, we still expect the S&P 500 to rally over the remainder of this year. 27th February 2025 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily How long will the 2017 redux last for the US dollar? The greenback has struggled over the past month or so, since President Trump took office. However, we think that a sustained fall in the dollar like that at the start of his first term remains... 26th February 2025 · 4 mins read
US Housing Market Rapid Response US New Home Sales (Jan 2025) The large fall in new home sales in January was to be expected given the disruption from the unseasonably severe winter weather. While sales should rebound this month, elevated mortgage rates will... 26th February 2025 · 2 mins read
Commodities Update What to make of the US-Ukraine minerals deal? This Update answers some key questions on the recently agreed US-Ukraine minerals deal. In short, estimates of Ukraine’s mineral wealth seem to be overblown and the deal suggests that US support for... 26th February 2025 · 5 mins read
