US Housing Market Rapid Response US Case-Shiller/FHFA House Prices (Feb. 2025) February’s 0.4% m/m rise in house prices is still a bit stronger than the timely leading indicators - like rising months’ supply and longer average time on market - would suggest. However, along with... 29th April 2025 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US advance economic indicators (Mar) The advance economic indicators revealed a massive surge in consumer goods imports in March, as firms raced to beat the imposition of reciprocal tariffs in early April. As a result, we now estimate... 29th April 2025 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update Trump: What to expect in the second 100 days President Donald Trump’s first 100 days back in office has been characterised by radical changes to trade policy, immigration and the Federal government, all implemented by an unprecedented use of... 29th April 2025 · 6 mins read
Canada Economics Update What does the election mean for Canada's economy and markets? Although the Liberals have just missed out on a majority, Prime Minister Mark Carney should still be able to implement his fiscal plans with support from the NDP or Bloc Québécois. If anything, the... 29th April 2025 · 4 mins read
US Commercial Property Update NCREIF Q1 Index shows US commercial property values now rising, but valuation gaps persist The NCREIF Property Index (NPI) recorded a third consecutive quarter of positive total returns in Q1 2025, driven primarily by income. Although capital value growth turned positive, questions remain... 28th April 2025 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update Advanced economy financial conditions on the mend The recent reduction in equity market volatility has reversed most of the tightening in our market-based narrow Financial Conditions Indices for advanced economies. Our broad FCIs, which also... 28th April 2025 · 4 mins read
Commodities Update Lessons from US-China trade war 1.0 for soybeans Soybeans are once again caught in the firing line of the US-China trade war. There is plenty of uncertainty around the exact ramifications for the shape of global trading patterns and prices, but the... 25th April 2025 · 4 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Canada Weekly: Carney and Poilievre unveil dubious fiscal plans Both major parties have unveiled their platforms ahead of next week's federal election. While we suspect both sets of projections understate the size of future budget deficits, the Liberals would... 25th April 2025 · 5 mins read
US Economics Weekly US Weekly: Reality bites for Trump on tariffs and the Fed The negative reaction in financial markets undoubtedly played a key role in making President Trump reconsider his eye-wateringly high tariffs on China and his ill-advised plans to fire Fed Chair... 25th April 2025 · 8 mins read
FX Markets Focus Rumours of the dollar’s demise: still mostly exaggerated? The sharp fall in the dollar over the past three months can for the most part be explained by a rapid reassessment of the outlook for the US economy and financial markets, rather than an imminent... 25th April 2025 · 19 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Retail Sales (Feb. 2025) The moderate decline in retail sales volumes in February was probably due to the unseasonably severe winter weather rather than the recent slump in sentiment, with the latest flash estimate implying... 25th April 2025 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Q1 RICS survey shows resilient US CRE sentiment, but downside risks ahead The Q1 RICS US commercial property survey reported steady investment sentiment. That is in line with our belief that the market is headed for an upturn, although the impact of new tariffs and the... 25th April 2025 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Worst may be over for the US dollar We suspect the US dollar will recover some lost ground over the coming months as its usual relationship with rate differentials reasserts itself. 25th April 2025 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update Higher LNG demand to drive Henry Hub prices up The US was the world’s largest LNG exporter in 2024 and demand for US LNG is set to increase markedly in the next few years. Demand for LNG will grow faster than US production in the near term... 24th April 2025 · 4 mins read
US Housing Market Rapid Response US Existing Home Sales (Mar. 2025) The fall in existing home sales in March serves as a good reminder that more home listings alone are not enough to revive the market. Affordability also has to meaningfully improve which, based on our... 24th April 2025 · 2 mins read
US Employment Report Preview US Employment Report Preview: Still little sign of a DOGE-related drag We forecast a healthy 150,000 gain in non-farm payrolls in April given that the drag from cuts to the federal workforce still appears minimal. Otherwise, we think the unemployment rate ticked back... 24th April 2025 · 3 mins read
