Bank of Canada Watch Bank continues to wait and see The Bank will be relieved to see the broad-based easing in core inflation in January, but is still likely to use its policy statement and press conference next week to emphasise the need for patience... 28th February 2024 · 7 mins read
Energy Update North America electricity trade to grow Although the US’ trade in electricity with Canada and Mexico is small compared to its overall energy trade, it should grow as clean energy capacity rises and grid connections improve. Canada should... 28th February 2024 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update Revising up slightly our 10-year Treasury yield forecast We are revising up our end-2024 and end-2025 forecasts for the 10-year Treasury yield by 25bp, to 4%. This reflects recent changes to our projections for the federal funds rate. Nonetheless, our new... 28th February 2024 · 4 mins read
US Housing Market Rapid Response US Case-Shiller/FHFA House Prices (Dec. 2023) Another small rise in house prices in December suggests the extremely backward-looking data are still capturing a slowdown in price growth following the October peak in mortgage rates. That’s mainly... 27th February 2024 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Valuation Monitor US Commercial Property Valuation Monitor (Q1 2024) All-property valuations saw the largest quarterly increase in over a decade in Q4, as property yields rose across all sectors and the 10-year Treasury yield saw its sharpest quarterly decline since Q1... 26th February 2024 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Rapid Response US New Home Sales (Jan. 2024) The sharp fall in mortgage rates at the end of last year helped new home sales regain some more momentum in January. But so far the rebound has been slightly slower than we were anticipating. Looking... 26th February 2024 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly April back in play for first interest rate cut The encouraging January CPI data mean that the Bank of Canada’s April policy meeting is back in play for a potential interest rate cut, although it still seems more likely that the Bank will wait... 23rd February 2024 · 5 mins read
US Economics Weekly Fed to delay first rate cut until June Based on comments from Fed officials this week, we now expect the Fed to wait until June to begin cutting interest rates. Our forecasts now assume 100bp of cuts this year and a further 100bp next year... 23rd February 2024 · 8 mins read
Capital Daily How vulnerable are bonds and stocks to a Trump 2.0? The recent back-up in long-term Treasury yields, reflecting concerns that inflation isn’t coming down fast enough to prompt the Fed to cut rates in the near future, raises the question of how much... 22nd February 2024 · 5 mins read
US Housing Market Rapid Response US Existing Home Sales (Jan. 2024) The sharp fall in mortgage rates at the end of last year was the catalyst for existing home sales rising in January. But borrowing costs have risen again in recent weeks, which in the near term... 22nd February 2024 · 2 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Retail Sales (Dec. 2024) The strong rise in December means that retail sales volumes rose by close to 5% annualised last quarter, supporting the preliminary estimate that GDP growth turned positive again. With sales volumes... 22nd February 2024 · 2 mins read
US Chart Pack US Chart Pack (Feb. 2024) The economy continues to appear impervious to higher interest rates and, although we expect growth to slow over the first half of this year, that slowdown is likely to be modest. But we don’t expect... 21st February 2024 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update What’s unusual about this bubble and whether it matters Unlike most bubbles, this one hasn’t been accompanied, at least so far, by obvious signs of high and rising leverage. On the other hand, the share of funds invested in ‘passive’ products is now much... 20th February 2024 · 6 mins read
US Commercial Property Chart Pack US Commercial Property Chart Pack (Q1 24) All-property values are down by 15% since mid-2022. But, with cap rates set to climb toward 5.5% by the end of the forecast period, we think capital value falls have some way to go still, with the... 20th February 2024 · 1 min read