Canada Economics Update Bank admits higher growth and oil prices could require hikes The hawkish messaging surrounding the Bank of Canada’s decision to leave interest rates on hold, paired with its revised projections for higher growth this year and next, mean there are growing upside... 29th April 2026 · 3 mins read
Canada Economics Update Bank of Canada Policy Announcement (Apr 2026) The hawkish messaging surrounding the Bank of Canada’s decision to leave interest rates on hold, paired with its updated projections for higher growth this year and next, make us slightly more nervous... 29th April 2026 · 3 mins read
US Rapid Response US Durable Goods Orders, Advance Economic Indicators (Mar. 2026) & Housing Starts (Feb./Mar. 2026) The batch of data just published suggest the risks to our estimate that first-quarter GDP growth will come in at 2.5% annualised in tomorrow’s advance release are skewed to the upside. 29th April 2026 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily Two threats to bonds that aren’t rate hikes or fiscal crises With the major central banks lining up to talk tough on inflation this week, and investors on edge about fiscal problems in many places, we think there are some other growing medium-term risks facing... 29th April 2026 · 4 mins read
Canada Economics Update Improved fiscal situation but hurdles lie ahead Higher revenues on the back of elevated oil prices and stronger economic growth were behind downward revisions to the budget deficit projections in the Spring Economic Update (SEU). While the economic... 29th April 2026 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily What to make of the recent surge in semiconductors? This month’s surge in semiconductor share indices mainly seems to reflect signs of growing demand for CPUs used for AI inference and a related need for more high bandwidth memory (HBM) chips. 28th April 2026 · 4 mins read
US Housing Market Rapid Response US Case-Shiller/FHFA House Prices (Feb. 2026) The surprise fall in house prices in February suggests the market was on even weaker footing than previously thought ahead of the jump in mortgage rates tied to the Iran war. Despite this, we are not... 28th April 2026 · 2 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Three questions for markets, two months into the crisis With disruptions to global energy markets now having lasted two months this Update asks, and answers, three key questions about how financial markets have fared so far. First, why have equities... 28th April 2026 · 6 mins read
US Commercial Property Update NCREIF Q1 2026: Little divergence in regions and core sectors Income returns are already accounting for almost all the total return in the traditional sectors, but senior housing stood out positively again in Q1, seeing strong capital growth and posting a 3.9%... 27th April 2026 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update Private credit CLOs not a repeat of 2008 CDOs The rapid growth of private credit CLOs has prompted comparisons with subprime CDOs in the lead-up to the global financial crisis. However, while there are some similarities, namely their opacity, the... 27th April 2026 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily Risk rally on borrowed time while the Strait remains closed If the diplomatic and military stalemate between the US and Iran continues, and the Strait of Hormuz remain largely closed, policymakers and market participants will find it increasingly difficult to... 27th April 2026 · 6 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Dire farming outlook risks worsening inflation rebound Record drought conditions in North America along with elevated diesel and fertiliser prices could stoke food inflation and, in turn, households' expectations. This raises the risk that the Bank of... 24th April 2026 · 5 mins read
US Economics Weekly Refunds, refunds everywhere but not a major stimulus Individuals have benefited from higher tax refunds this year and companies will soon benefit from IEEPA tariff refunds, but we doubt that these will make a big difference to GDP growth. 24th April 2026 · 9 mins read
Capital Daily Broad-based small cap outperformance may continue A storming rally in the tech sector has obscured the fact that the average US small cap has markedly beaten the average large cap over recent weeks. We think this trend has a bit further to run. 24th April 2026 · 4 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Retail Sales (Feb. 2026) The 0.3% m/m rise in retail sales volumes in February was a little softer than we expected, but the bigger news is that the flash estimate points to only a 0.6% rise in retail sales values in March... 24th April 2026 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily Equity-dollar correlation will remain strong until the war is over The inverse relationship between risky assets and the US dollar has been unusually strong over the past couple of months. That is likely to continue as long as energy supply risks remain the key... 23rd April 2026 · 4 mins read
