US Housing Market Rapid Response US Housing Starts (Aug. 2026) While single-family housing starts rebounded in August, the fall in the number of building permits issued last month suggests this strength will be short-lived. The big picture remains that elevated... 17th September 2026 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update SEP suggests only limited appetite for further Fed hikes The Fed’s interest rate hike today is likely to be followed by at least one more later this year, probably in December. While the new Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) implies that the Fed may be... 16th September 2026 · 3 mins read
US Rapid Response US Fed Policy Announcement (Sep 2026) The Fed appears to be on board with our view that its hike today will be followed by one more later this year. While the latest Summary of Economic Projections implies that the Fed may be content with... 16th September 2026 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US Retail Sales (Aug. 2026) The broad-based strength in retail sales in August brightens the picture on the US consumer after an underwhelming couple of months, and leaves our third-quarter GDP growth estimate just shy of 4%... 16th September 2026 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Update Housing Watch (Sep. 2026) Higher borrowing costs took some momentum out of the housing market in August. We expect this to continue to halt the nascent recovery over the coming months. 15th September 2026 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily AI news and bond rout weaken the case for an equity rebound While renewed enthusiasm for AI or a substantial retreat in US Treasury yields could breathe fresh life into the S&P 500, neither is looking very likely at the moment. That’s making us less confident... 15th September 2026 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update Leap in margins another sign of late-stage bull market The US corporate profit share has climbed to historic highs, mainly due to soaring profitability in AI-related technology sectors. But history suggests that such rapid gains in margins are difficult... 14th September 2026 · 4 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Consumer Prices (Aug. 2026) & Manufacturing Sales (Jul. 2026) The second consecutive firm rise in core price pressures in August, coming against a backdrop of surging oil prices, means it now looks increasingly likely the Bank of Canada will follow other major... 14th September 2026 · 2 mins read
Asset Allocation Focus What to expect in markets when the bubble in AI bursts There are plenty of signs that we are now in the late stages of a bubble in AI. When the bubble eventually bursts, we expect the subsequent fallout to include not only very substantial drops in equity... 14th September 2026 · 22 mins read
Capital Daily Greenback to benefit as Fed presses ahead We don’t expect the Fed to add much fuel to the bond market sell-off later this week, but over the medium term we nonetheless think the relative monetary policy picture favours the US dollar... 14th September 2026 · 5 mins read
US Commercial Property Rapid Response US Commercial Property Lending (August) Net lending by banks to commercial real estate excluding farms recovered to $8.3bn in August, from $4.6bn in July. That’s in line with the average over the past year of $8.4bn. Within the total, net... 11th September 2026 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Softening in core goods inflation unlikely to last While core goods inflation continued to ease in August, three key developments this week lend support to our view that this is unlikely to last. 11th September 2026 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily Markets still fairly resilient to US inflation threat While the US CPI data for August released today could have been worse, the combination of strong economic growth, above-target underlying inflation and the recent surge energy prices means that we now... 11th September 2026 · 4 mins read
China Economics Weekly Another rare earths crunch China's rare earth exports have been falling ever since Presidents Trump and Xi met in May, despite US suggestions that China had committed to keep shipments flowing. There has been no public pushback... 11th September 2026 · 5 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Trump may yet tighten the screw further While the Trump administration's planned import ban on some Canadian goods doesn't change much for the growth outlook, further escalation such as US withdrawal from CUSMA could be disastrous. We... 11th September 2026 · 6 mins read
US Fed Watch Fed set to hike next week and by 75bp in total The firm August price data means we are reinstating our prior forecast that the Fed will hike this month and by 75bp in total. That would take the fed funds target range to between 4.25% and 4.50%. 11th September 2026 · 9 mins read
