UK Data Response Labour Market (Aug.) We think that the drop in employment in the three months to August is more likely to be a blip rather than the beginning of a sustained decline in jobs growth. What’s more, pay growth continued to... 16th October 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Is the Phillips Curve back from the dead? After years of falling unemployment, wage growth has finally been picking up in the major advanced economies this year. However, the forces that have kept a lid on pay growth over the past decade are... 16th October 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Chart Pack Back down to earth in Q3 Japan’s economy was always likely to slow in the third quarter after the surge of output it generated in the second. But the latest data have still been rather disappointing. While investment remains... 15th October 2018 · 1 min read
India Economic Outlook Rapid growth to continue for a while yet GDP growth has surged in recent quarters and, while it has probably peaked, we expect it to remain strong ahead of the general election in the first half of 2019. Thereafter, a focus on fiscal... 11th October 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Economic Outlook Good times continue Domestic demand will pick up speed ahead of next year’s sales tax hike, extending one of Japan’s strongest runs of growth since the 1980s, and price pressures will strengthen. But weaker domestic... 9th October 2018 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Sep.) & International Trade (Aug.) The weaker 134,000 gain in non-farm payrolls in September may well be a one-off, reflecting some hit from Hurricane Florence. With large upward revisions to previous months’ payroll gains, a fall in... 5th October 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Sep.) & Int. Trade (Aug.) September’s impressive rebound in employment is another reason to think that the Bank of Canada will pull the trigger on a rate hike later this month. While we think that the current strength of the... 5th October 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Households remain gloomy, yen to strengthen again Japan’s labour market is as strong as most of today’s workers will ever have known, which makes the persistent weakness of consumption all the more puzzling. Spending remains flat according to data... 5th October 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Labour Cash Earnings & Household Spending (Aug.) The strongest rise in regular earnings since 1997 should be followed by even stronger gains in coming months as the labour market tightens further. 5th October 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Country divergence looks set to continue Business and consumer surveys suggest that growth in the euro-zone as a whole will continue at a fairly healthy pace of around 0.4% per quarter in the near term. But there is a growing divergence by... 4th October 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Chart Pack Third-quarter slowdown a sign of things to come The world economy seems to have lost some momentum in the past few months and we expect it to slow further in the coming year. World trade growth has fallen sharply, though this is due to weakening... 4th October 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Growth appears to have ticked up in Q3 The Markit/CIPS all-sector output PMI was more or less unchanged in Q3 compared to Q2, consistent with GDP growth remaining steady at 0.4% q/q. However, we think that growth was a little bit stronger... 4th October 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Wage growth in core and periphery set to diverge We think that faster wage growth in the core countries will drive aggregate euro-zone wage growth up over the next few years, prompting the ECB to raise interest rates. But wage growth in the... 3rd October 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia’s economy still has some slack Russia’s recovery doesn’t appear to have used up the spare capacity in the economy and we estimate that there is an output gap of about 1% of potential GDP. That means there’s scope for GDP to grow... 2nd October 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexico: the new Nafta, Amlo and receding policy risks The announcement of a trilateral trade deal with the US and Canada removes one major source of uncertainty surrounding Mexico’s outlook. The focus will increasingly shift onto the policies of... 1st October 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Unemployment (Aug.), Manuf. PMI (Sep.) August’s further fall in euro-zone unemployment adds to evidence that wage growth is likely to rise further in the coming months, supporting the case for gradual ECB policy normalisation. But there... 1st October 2018 · 1 min read
