Japan Chart Pack Inflation genie remains in its bottle Japan’s economy probably recorded the sixth quarter of uninterrupted GDP growth in Q2 and the outlook for the third quarter is positive. In fact, the economy remains on track to enjoy the longest... 11th August 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Business bonanza? The surge in business confidence in Australia has made us a little more upbeat on the outlook for business investment. But with households showing some signs of struggling, a bit more investment won’t... 11th August 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Update NFIB & JOLT surveys point to pick-up in wages and investment The latest JOLT and NFIB surveys show that labour market conditions remain unusually tight and, while this is still not translating into significantly faster wage growth, it might finally be prompting... 8th August 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus CEE: Tight labour markets point to more hikes than most expect We think that natural unemployment rates have fallen by 2.5-3.0%-pts in Central & Eastern Europe over the past decade. Even so, actual rates of unemployment are now significantly below these (lower)... 8th August 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Economy Watchers Survey (Jul.) Despite a drop in July, the Economy Watchers Survey still points to solid gains in consumer spending. 8th August 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Jul.) Although employment rose by a moderate 10,900 in July, the much larger gain in full-time jobs and drop in the unemployment rate to 6.3%, from 6.5%, are encouraging and point to stronger wage growth... 4th August 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Should we be worrying about consumers? Annual revisions to the income and spending data released this week mean that the household saving rate is now estimated to have fallen sharply over the past year, calling into question the... 4th August 2017 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Jul.) & International Trade (Jun.) The 209,000 rise in non-farm payrolls in July, together with the drop back in the unemployment rate to a joint 16-year low, suggests the Fed will still need to raise rates again this year, even if... 4th August 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Korea: Plans to reduce inequality may cause growth to slow Since becoming president of South Korea in May, Moon Jae-in has introduced a range of measures aimed at reducing inequality and cutting youth unemployment. Moon’s policies are likely to boost growth... 4th August 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Labour Cash Earnings (Jun.) The main reason for the fall in labour cash earnings in June was a slump in summer bonuses. What’s more, a renewed slowdown in working hours lowered base pay. But the surge in part-time pay suggests... 4th August 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Consumer Confidence (Jul.) Consumer confidence rebounded in July and suggests that private consumption will continue to recover. 2nd August 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Unemployment (Jun.) & Flash CPI (Jul.) While June’s unemployment data painted a positive picture of the euro-zone labour market, July’s CPI release confirmed that this strength is putting only modest upward pressure on underlying inflation... 31st July 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Focus ASEAN: still searching for purpose at 50 As ASEAN approaches its 50th anniversary, we see little prospect of it transforming itself into the kind of single market and production base which its supporters hope will one day enable it to rival... 31st July 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Jobs growth switches from soft to soaring After a soft patch at the beginning of this year, jobs growth has soared in Australia in recent months. What’s more, of the net new 154,000 jobs that have been created since March all of them have... 31st July 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Transitional agreement increasingly likely The view on both sides of the channel seems to be that agreeing the terms of the UK’s withdrawal will take longer than initially hoped. As a result, a transitional deal allowing freedom of movement... 28th July 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Is inflation really just 1.9%? Most people are right to believe that their inflation rate is not 1.9% as the official ABS data show. As different people spend different shares of their income on different items than the ABS assumes... 28th July 2017 · 1 min read
