Japan Data Response Labour Market (Jan.) & Capital Spending (Q4) The unemployment rate edged up in January and with GDP growth set to remain soft, we think it will creep higher next year. 1st March 2019 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Robust payrolls remain a bright spot We anticipate a robust 190,000 gain in non-farm payrolls in February, while a post-shutdown rebound in household employment will cause the unemployment rate to drop back to 3.9%. 28th February 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Some convergence in business confidence While business confidence in New Zealand seems to be recovering from the slump after 2017’s election, it has weakened in Australia. (See Chart.) That deterioration can partly be explained by softer... 27th February 2019 · 1 min read
Japan Chart Pack Export volumes should fall this year The export climate index fell to a three-year low in January and suggests that exports will barely grow at all this year. The monthly trade data have been even more downbeat as they showed export... 26th February 2019 · 1 min read
RBA Watch Shift in RBA’s stance increases chances of rate cuts The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will almost certainly leave interest rates unchanged at 1.50% at its policy meeting on Tuesday 5th March. While the Bank should reiterate its view that inflationary... 26th February 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Labour market resilient, sterling unmoved by political split After a worrying start to the year, the economic news this week has been a little better. This supports our view that while Brexit uncertainty is hampering growth, the economy is fundamentally sound... 22nd February 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly The bright spot in the Australian economy…for now Labour market conditions in Australia remain a bright spot for now. But we suspect that the housing downturn, weaker business confidence and a global slowdown will all weigh on employment growth and... 22nd February 2019 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Chart Pack Activity expected to slow The latest data paint a mixed picture of the performance of the Swiss and Nordic economies at the end of 2018, with signs of weakness in Switzerland and Sweden offset in part by robust quarterly GDP... 21st February 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economic Outlook Households well placed to step up spending While the uncertainty caused by Brexit is hampering consumption, households’ finances are fundamentally sound. Indeed, with earnings growth at a decade-high in December and inflation below its 2%... 21st February 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Labour Market (Jan.) The strong rise in employment combined with a stable unemployment rate should give the RBA some confidence in its optimistic forecasts, but we think the labour market will worsen again soon. 21st February 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Wage Price Index (Q4) Broadly unchanged wage growth in the fourth quarter of 2018 suggests that the unemployment rate remains above the natural rate. We think the unemployment rate may actually rise this year meaning wage... 20th February 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update S Africa: Unemployment a structural obstacle, not cyclical indicator We wouldn’t read too much into the recent decline in South African unemployment; the measure tells us little about the country’s economic cycle. While many factors contribute to high levels of... 19th February 2019 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Labour Market (Dec.) While reassuring, the large rise in employment in Q4 probably marks a peak in employment growth given the deterioration in surveys of hiring in January. And pay growth plateaued. Nonetheless, we think... 19th February 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Things might get worse before they get better It has been a worrying week for the economy. The Q4 GDP figures bore out the story that the global economic slowdown and Brexit worries are weighing on growth. And it increasingly looks like Brexit... 15th February 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Cracks appearing in the foundations of labour market Until recently the labour market had seemed to be immune to the Brexit uncertainty which has hampered other sectors of the economy, but there are signs that Brexit is now starting to affect the labour... 13th February 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Korea Labour Market (Jan.) January data suggest that a sharp minimum wage hike at the beginning of the year weighed on hiring, and is likely to depress job creation throughout 2019. The poor health of the labour market is set... 13th February 2019 · 1 min read
