Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly The RBA’s requirements for a rate rise Governor Lowe outlined in a speech earlier this week that before interest rates are raised from their record low of 1.5% the RBA will want to have “reasonable confidence that inflation is picking up... 15th June 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Labour Market (May) While the unemployment rate edged down in May, the underutilisation rate held steady suggesting that there is still plenty of slack in the labour market. And in his speech yesterday, Governor Philip... 14th June 2018 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Employment (Apr.) The annual pace of job creation increased further in April. However, a slowing in average earnings growth and an increase in the number of part-time workers suggest the headline numbers may not be as... 12th June 2018 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Labour Market (Apr.) Another strong set of employment figures in April suggests that firms remain positive about the outlook for demand despite the economy going through a soft patch at the start of the year. 12th June 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Chart Pack 2% inflation target remains elusive Headline inflation has been falling recently as the impact of the short-lived spike in food prices over the winter has reversed. Energy inflation has continued to slow as utility bills are rising less... 12th June 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (May) One month of falling employment can be chalked up to the notorious volatility in the labour force survey, but two months? That’s not something the Bank of Canada can ignore, particularly not as the... 8th June 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Relying again on resources In order to grow by 3.1% in the year to the first quarter, the Australian economy returned to the old habit of relying on resources. This won’t be possible in the second quarter nor in the coming... 8th June 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Peripheral bond yields rise amid political turmoil Politics have captured the limelight over the past month. Bond yields in Italy have risen sharply over the past few weeks as concerns about debt sustainability and the new government’s commitment to... 7th June 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Labour Cash Earnings (Apr.) The slowdown in wage growth in April was driven by volatile bonus payments, whereas base pay kept growing at the strongest pace in two decades. But wages would still have to grow much faster to meet... 6th June 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Chart Pack World economy resilient to renewed trade tensions The risk of a global trade war has risen in the past few weeks. President Trump has gone ahead with plans to levy tariffs on steel and aluminium imports, which is likely to provoke retaliation. In... 5th June 2018 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (May) May’s employment report had everything needed to support a June rate hike by the Fed; including a solid 223,000 gain in payrolls, a decline in the unemployment rate to an 18-year low of 3.8% and a... 1st June 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI (May) & Unemployment (Apr.) After reaching an eight-month high in May, core inflation looks set to rise further. Moreover, recent increases in oil prices will push headline inflation above 2% next month. While the recent drama... 31st May 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Consumer Confidence (May) Today’s consumer confidence survey suggests that wage and employment growth will slow. Still, sentiment edged up marginally in May and points to a rebound in consumer spending. 30th May 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Labour Market (Apr.) Even though employment growth slowed a bit in April, it remains unrealistically high. Meanwhile, the jobless rate stayed at 2.5% and it will probably edge a little lower over the coming months. 29th May 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Norwegian Unemployment (Mar.) Norway’s labour market recovery looks set to gather pace in the coming months, but wage growth is likely to remain subdued. So we still think that the Norges Bank will wait longer than most expect... 25th May 2018 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Strong payrolls to keep Fed on track for June rate hike We expect a 190,000 gain in non-farm payrolls in May, with the unemployment rate holding steady at 3.9% and wage growth picking up. That would leave the Fed on track to raise rates again in June. 24th May 2018 · 1 min read
