Activity expected to slow

The latest data paint a mixed picture of the performance of the Swiss and Nordic economies at the end of 2018, with signs of weakness in Switzerland and Sweden offset in part by robust quarterly GDP growth in Norway and Denmark. However, we think that GDP growth throughout the region will slow this year, particularly given the wider weakness in the euro-zone economy. Indeed, surveys suggest that Swiss industrial output growth has already slowed sharply in early 2019, echoing the troubles in neighbouring Germany, and a sharp contraction in construction in Sweden will continue to weigh on investment there. Meanwhile, although the Norwegian economy ended 2018 on a high note, our forecast for oil prices to fall means that we expect GDP growth to slow there as well.