Nordic & Swiss Data Response

Norway Consumer Prices (Feb.)

February’s decline in headline and core inflation takes some of the pressure off the Norges Bank and means that it is likely to hike by 25bp at the meeting in two weeks’ time.

Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly

Sweden struggling, Switzerland holding up

Data released this week showed that Sweden’s economy contracted by more than previously thought in Q4, and we expect further declines to come. But Switzerland’s economy is holding up better and there...

Nordic & Swiss Economics Update

Norges Bank’s policy rate to rise above 3%

The resilience of the economy and house prices, together with the strength of inflation, suggest that the Norges Bank will raise interest rates a bit further than we previously anticipated. We now...

Nordic & Swiss Data Response

Norway GDP (Q4)

Norway’s mainland economy put in a much better performance in Q4 than the central bank expected and ended the year with a healthy expansion in December. Together with the continued strength in...

Nordic & Swiss Data Response

Norway Consumer Prices (Jan.)

The strength of consumer price inflation in January makes it all but certain that the Norges Bank will raise its policy rate at its next meeting in March, most likely by 25bp. And with house prices...

Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly

Reasons for optimism on the Norwegian krone

The recent depreciation of the Norwegian krone might have further to run, but we think that rising energy prices and improved investor risk appetite will cause it to strengthen in the second half of...

Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly

Swiss franc likely to remain broadly stable

We had previously forecast the Swiss franc to rise against the euro in the first half of the year as we thought the ECB would raise interest rates a bit less than the market anticipated and that there...

Nordic & Swiss Rapid Response

Norges Bank Policy Announcement (January 2023)

Nordic & Swiss Economics Update

Norges Bank tightening nearly over

The Norges Bank eased off the brakes today by leaving policy on hold, but signalled that it will raise its policy rate at the next meeting in March. We suspect that will be the final hike in this...

Nordic & Swiss Central Bank Watch

One (more) and done

The Norges Bank is one step from ending its tightening cycle. We expect it to raise its policy rate by 25bp next week, to a peak of 3%. After that it is likely to pause while it waits to assess the...

Nordic & Swiss Data Response

Norway Consumer Prices (Dec.)

The continued strength of core inflation will encourage the Norges Bank to press on with another 25bp interest rate increase next week. While there is still some more upside risk to underlying...

Nordic & Swiss Economics Update

Only one more hike to come from the Norges Bank

Today’s 25bp rate increase by the Norges Bank, to 2.75%, takes it very close to the end of its tightening cycle. But we think the Bank is a long way from pivoting to loosening policy.

Nordic & Swiss Rapid Response

Norges Bank Policy Announcement (December 2022)

Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly

SNB and Norges Bank to hike on “Super Thursday”

We expect the Norges Bank and Swiss National Bank to raise interest rates next Thursday, by 25bp and 50bp respectively, bringing an end to the tightening cycle for the SNB and getting close to the end...

Nordic & Swiss Data Response

Norway Consumer Prices (Nov.)

The declines in headline and core inflation in November won’t stop the Norges Bank from raising interest rates by 25bp next week. But they support our view that the tightening cycle is very nearly...