Japan Data Response Consumer Spending, Labour Market & Inflation (Jun.) The rebound in retail sales and “core” household spending in June suggests that consumer spending rose at a solid pace last quarter. Meanwhile, inflation remains very low despite the continued... 28th July 2017 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Strong payrolls will keep unemployment rate on downward trend We expect a 200,000 increase in non-farm payrolls in July, which should have been enough to push the unemployment rate back down to 4.3%. As labour market conditions tighten further, we expect wage... 27th July 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swedish Economic Tendency Survey (July) & Labour Data (June) Both the Swedish Economic Tendency Survey and labour market indicators point to increasing wage and price pressures. This supports our view that the Riksbank and markets are underestimating how soon... 27th July 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Why has pay growth slowed? We had expected nominal pay growth to remain pretty sluggish – but not to start slowing! Since this is most likely to have been due to the exchange-rate induced rise in import costs, the slowdown... 27th July 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Small Business Confidence (Jul.) Small business confidence was little changed in July and still points to solid gains in industrial production. But even though firms continue to report severe staff shortages, the survey suggests that... 26th July 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Flash Manufacturing PMI (Jul.) The second consecutive drop in the output index of the manufacturing PMI suggests that the sector is slowing. But the survey still points to faster increases in consumer prices. 24th July 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Labour Market (Jun.) The surge in full-time jobs in June is likely to fuel growing expectations that the RBA will begin to raise interest rates by the first half of 2018. But despite this latest improvement there is still... 20th July 2017 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack BJP laying the groundwork for 2019 The result of India’s presidential election is due to be announced later today. It won’t have direct implications for the economy since the role of president is largely ceremonial. But the result... 20th July 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economic Outlook Trade and investment to pick up the baton Consumer spending growth looks set to slow further this year as the real pay squeeze intensifies. But this should be offset by a stronger contribution from net trade and investment. There is a risk... 19th July 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly What’s driving the divergence in confidence? The gap between consumer and business confidence has widened further in recent months as rising profits have made firms increasingly optimistic while subdued wage growth has kept households... 14th July 2017 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Labour Market (May) Despite May’s labour market figures suggesting that the economy is close to full employment, the continued weakness of wage growth provides some ammunition to the more dovish members of the Monetary... 12th July 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Chart Pack Yen to weaken further US 10-year government bond yields have climbed to a two-month high in recent days and we expect them to rise further in coming months. By contrast, the Bank of Japan has underlined its determination... 11th July 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Economy Watchers Survey (Jun.) The Economy Watchers Survey continued to improve in June and points to strong gains in consumer spending. 10th July 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Still waiting for stronger wage pressures Labour market data released in the US and Japan today underline that wage inflation remains elusive throughout the developed world. We still think that average earnings growth is likely to pick up in... 7th July 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Jun.) Headline employment increased by a stronger than expected 45,300 in June, compared to the consensus estimate of a 10,000 gain, but wage cost pressures remain subdued. Accordingly, there’s nothing in... 7th July 2017 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (June) The 222,000 gain in non-farm payrolls in June, which was well above the consensus forecast at 179,000 and even our own more upbeat 200,000 estimate, is another illustration that the real economy is in... 7th July 2017 · 1 min read
