Japan Data Response Tankan (Q3) The deterioration in business conditions in the Q3 Tankan supports our view that GDP growth slowed last quarter. That said, firms remain optimistic about the outlook for capital spending and the... 1st October 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Labour Market & Activity (Aug.) & Tokyo CPI (Sep.) Today’s activity data showed a rebound in August but that won’t prevent a slowdown in GDP growth in Q3. The labour market remains tight and price pressures in the capital have strengthened further. 28th September 2018 · 1 min read
US Economic Outlook Shifting policy mix points to economic slowdown Boosted by the fiscal stimulus, GDP growth is still on track to be a solid 2.8% this year but, as that stimulus fades and the Fed continues to tighten monetary policy, we expect growth to slow to 2.2%... 27th September 2018 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Strong employment gains set to continue We estimate that non-farm payrolls rose by 220,000 in September, with the unemployment rate dropping to 3.8% and average hourly earnings posting another decent monthly gain. That would be enough to... 27th September 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Households squeezed by rising debt servicing costs Households’ debt service costs rose to 14.2% of incomes in the second quarter, the highest since 2008. The recent rise has been driven entirely by higher interest rates. Moreover, policy rate hikes... 27th September 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack A good year for growth The surprising strength of economic growth in the second quarter has led us to revise up our forecasts for GDP growth in the 2018 calendar year from 2.5% to 3.2% for Australia and from 2.5% to 2.7%... 26th September 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack Election campaigning gets underway in Indonesia Campaigning ahead of next April’s presidential election in Indonesia officially got underway at the weekend, with President Joko Widodo (also known as Jokowi) set to take on former general, Prabowo... 24th September 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Wage growth may play stronger role in ECB policy The latest comments from the ECB’s Benoît Coeuré suggest that future guidance about the pace of policy tightening might hinge on developments in wage growth. In our view, this would be a positive... 18th September 2018 · 1 min read
Global Inflation Watch Some signs of building price pressures Following a long period of tightening labour markets, wage pressures are mounting, and we think this will lead to a gradual pick-up in average earnings growth. Core inflation rate will probably rise... 17th September 2018 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Stronger dollar will hold back exports The economy remains strong, with the fiscal stimulus still providing a big boost but, looking beyond headline GDP growth, there are signs that rising interest rates and the resurgent dollar are... 17th September 2018 · 1 min read
US Data Response Retail Sales (Aug.) Although retail sales were weaker than we had been expecting in August specifically, upward revisions to sales in previous months mean that real consumption growth still appears to have remained... 14th September 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Peso plunges, Korea’s labour market woes continue A widening trade deficit in the Philippines has put renewed downward pressure on the peso over the past week, creating a further headache for the central bank. Meanwhile, in Korea, the recent weakness... 14th September 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Labour Costs (Q2) & Goods Trade (Jul.) The pick-up in euro-zone wage growth in Q2 adds to signs that inflationary pressures in the region are building. This will encourage the ECB that it is right to be normalising monetary policy. But... 14th September 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Conditions for higher wages (slowly) falling into place This week the Australian economy took one more step towards meeting the conditions that would require higher interest rates, but it may be another 12-18 months at the least before the RBA has enough... 14th September 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Why is Polish inflation weaker than elsewhere in CEE? Polish inflation is lower, and has been slower to rise, than elsewhere in Central & Eastern Europe (CEE), which seems to be a result of having more slack in its labour market and faster productivity... 13th September 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Labour Market (Aug.) The labour market is edging closer to the conditions that are necessary to trigger faster wage growth, but it may be another couple of years yet before it gets there. 13th September 2018 · 1 min read
