Japan Data Response Economy Watchers Survey (Mar.) Today’s Economy Watchers Survey jars with the upbeat message from other sentiment surveys. The survey also points to a further slowdown in job growth in coming months. 10th April 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Brexit Watch: May softens stance on immigration Just over a week since the triggering of Article 50 and the PM Theresa May appears to have softened her stance in relation to Brexit. Despite this, markets have pushed back their expectations for the... 7th April 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Mar.) The further gains in employment and hours worked in March are positive signs for growth in labour income. That supports our view that household spending contributed strongly to first-quarter GDP... 7th April 2017 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Mar.) The disappointing 98,000 increase in non-farm payrolls in March will be seized upon by the usual suspects as confirmation that the US economy is poised for collapse, but the truth is this is mostly... 7th April 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Monetary policy to remain loose for longer While the economy should continue to grow at a robust pace, price pressures will strengthen only slowly. And with the sales tax hike scheduled for end-2019 clouding the outlook, the Bank of Japan is... 7th April 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Labour Cash Earnings (Feb.) February’s data on labour cash earnings were a mixed bag. While growth in regular earnings slowed, wages of part-time worker grew at the fastest pace in years. The key point though is that much faster... 7th April 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Consumer Confidence (Mar.) The rise in consumer confidence in March left sentiment at the highest level it has been since autumn 2013 and suggests that consumption should continue to recover. However, households still expect... 6th April 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Unemployment & PPI (Feb.), Final Man. PMI (Mar.) February’s fall in euro-zone unemployment and the rise in the manufacturing PMI in March supported other evidence that the economy is performing well. But February’s producer prices data confirmed... 3rd April 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Tankan (Q1) While today’s Tankan survey showed that business conditions for large manufacturers did not improve as much as most had anticipated, the survey suggests that growth will remain strong for now. What’s... 3rd April 2017 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Lessons from Rajasthan’s reforms Slow progress in liberalising India’s rigid labour market has been one of the biggest disappointments of PM Modi’s term in office so far. However, there are signs of improvement at state level, most... 31st March 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Ind. Prod., H’H Spending, Unempl. & Cons. Prices (Feb.) Today’s activity data suggest that Japan’s economy continued to recover in Q1 while the labour market tightened further. However, very weak underlying price pressures highlight that the Bank of Japan... 31st March 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Exports should rebound from recent slump After a long period of disappointment, the recent pick-up in global manufacturing activity points to a rebound in non-commodity export growth in the coming months. We think it would take a marked... 30th March 2017 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Strong start to 2017 unlikely to be sustained We estimate that non-farm payroll employment growth slowed to a still-healthy 190,000 in March, with the unemployment rate unchanged at 4.7% and annual wage growth holding steady at 2.8%. 30th March 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Flash Manufacturing PMI (Mar.) The drop in the manufacturing PMI in March is hardly a disaster as the index had climbed to a three-year high in February. More problematic is that the survey points to a renewed moderation in price... 24th March 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Focus Is the Phillips Curve dead? The forces which have weakened the relationship between unemployment and inflation in recent decades are likely to persist, or even gather strength, in the coming years. If so, wage and price... 23rd March 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Inflation jumps, but no rush to tighten The jump in inflation across much of Emerging Europe last month has shifted the focus onto policy tightening. But in most cases this has been a one-off rise from higher fuel inflation, and there is... 23rd March 2017 · 1 min read
