Japan Data Response Consumer Confidence (May) Consumer sentiment rebounded in May and remains near the highest it has been since the sales tax hike. Meanwhile, household inflation expectations have started to recover again. 2nd June 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Small Business Confidence (May) Small business confidence was little changed in May and points to continued gains in industrial output. But despite rising labour shortages, price pressures remain subdued. 31st May 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Unemployment & Consumer Spending (Apr.) Strong gains in retail sales and “core” household spending in April suggest that private consumption is on track for another solid increase in the second quarter. Meanwhile, employment growth remains... 30th May 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Little scope for participation rate to keep rising While the overall participation rate has continued to trend down, there has been a sharp rebound in the share of 25-54 year-olds in the labour force. This has added 1½ million additional people to the... 26th May 2017 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview How much further can the unemployment rate fall? We estimate that non-farm payrolls increased by 200,000 in May. The unemployment rate probably held steady at 4.4%, but the surveys suggest that it will fall further soon and the upward pressure on... 25th May 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Household sector is starting to falter There is growing evidence that the household sector in Australia is beginning to struggle as subdued income growth weighs on spending. The sharp slowdown in the growth of retail sales volumes in the... 24th May 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Regional recovery takes hold First quarter GDP estimates for Emerging Europe published this month beat expectations across the board and suggest that growth in the region as a whole picked up to a three-year high of 2.3% y/y... 23rd May 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swedish Labour Force Survey (Apr.) Despite April’s rise in the Swedish unemployment rate, it remains low by recent standards. And with over one third of firms suffering from a shortage of labour, we still expect wage growth to pick up. 23rd May 2017 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack Another obstacle cleared on road to GST The consensus reached between India’s national and state governments on how different products will be dealt with under the Goods and Services Tax (GST) marks another important step towards its... 23rd May 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack Indonesia S&P upgrade long overdue The decision on Friday by the rating agency, S&P, to upgrade Indonesia to investment grade rating was long overdue. At under 30% of GDP, Indonesia has one of the lowest levels of government debt in... 19th May 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Boost from female employment starting to fade A surge in the share of women in or looking for paid employment has boosted potential growth and kept price pressures subdued in recent years. But with the female labour force participation rate no... 19th May 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Better get used to slow wage growth Wage growth in Australia has only been significantly lower than it is now during the Great Depression and immediately after World War II. While we do expect wage growth to rise from here, it won’t... 19th May 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Labour Market (Apr.) The labour market is not weak enough to prompt the RBA to cut interest rates again, but nor is it strong enough to trigger a large enough rise in wages and spending that would prompt the RBA to raise... 18th May 2017 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Incoming data make the Fed’s job more difficult The latest decline in the core CPI inflation rate to 1.9% in April, at the same time as the unemployment rate dropped to a decade low of 4.4%, presents a dilemma for the Fed. The price stability part... 17th May 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update How much slack is there in the euro-zone labour market? The recovery in the labour market is unlikely to put significant upward pressure on wage growth. Accordingly, the ECB will be very cautious when it comes to tightening policy. 17th May 2017 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Employment (Mar.) Generally speaking, the Labour Force Survey data painted positive picture for occupier demand. Yet, the ongoing squeeze on real incomes means that occupier demand for retail property will stay... 17th May 2017 · 1 min read
