Nordic & Swiss Data Response Norwegian Labour Force Survey (Dec.) December’s sharp decline in Norway’s unemployment rate was not as encouraging as it first appears. And while surveys suggest that employment growth will pick up, we suspect that wage growth will... 22nd February 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Overshoot in business confidence The notable improvement in a number of leading activity indicators in the past month or so is consistent with a sizeable pick-up in GDP growth in Australia. But we remain cautious about the prospects... 22nd February 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Flash Manufacturing PMI (Feb.) The manufacturing PMI in February was the highest it has been since 2014’s sales tax hike and suggests that activity in the sector continued to expand at a strong pace this quarter. What’s more, the... 21st February 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly EC’s optimistic forecasts underestimate key risks In its latest economic forecasts published last week, the European Commission (EC) provided a fairly upbeat outlook for the euro-zone economy, expecting it to sustain its current pace of growth in... 17th February 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Can wage growth keep up with rising inflation? Last week’s labour market and inflation figures have fueled concerns that the impact of rising inflation on real earnings will cause a significant slowdown in consumer spending growth. Indeed, rising... 17th February 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Immigration easing labour shortages Immigration to Japan is starting to make a meaningful difference in its labour market: the number of foreign workers rose by nearly 20% last year. With Japanese people more accepting of immigration... 17th February 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Labour Market (Jan.) January’s labour market figures highlight that jobs growth has sustained its recent momentum, but the now-familiar problem of the new jobs being mostly part-time ones rather than full-time ones also... 16th February 2017 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Employment (Dec.) Today’s data show that the labour market is holding up well. That said, with employee numbers flat, occupier demand looks set to be steady rather than resurgent. 15th February 2017 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Labour Market (Dec./Jan.) The latest data suggest that while the labour market has lost some momentum recently, it has held up fairly well in the face of Brexit uncertainty. However, real wage growth has started to become... 15th February 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economic Outlook Coping with higher inflation Growth in household spending is likely to slow over the next few years as inflation rises and dampens growth in real incomes. But loose credit conditions and relatively upbeat sentiment by past... 14th February 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response GDP (Q4 Preliminary) Growth was not fast enough last quarter to reduce spare capacity any further, but the current level of the output gap remains consistent with stronger price pressures. The upshot is that monetary... 13th February 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Jan.) The impressive run of headline employment gains continued this year, with 48,300 jobs added in January, which is further evidence of a meaningful economic recovery in the second half of last year from... 10th February 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Future looks brighter for manufacturing A robust rise in manufacturing activity at the end of 2016 and in the output balance of the Markit/CIPS manufacturing survey have raised hopes that the sector is getting back onto its feet. Admittedly... 10th February 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Post-Brexit momentum maintained at the start of 2017 Following a strong end to 2016, the economy appears to have carried a decent amount of momentum over into 2017. Despite a slight fall in the Markit/CIPS all-sector PMI in January, it is still at a... 6th February 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Labour Cash Earnings (Dec.) Headline wage growth slowed in December as firms cut winter bonuses. While it should pick up again in coming months, a strong rebound is not on the cards. 6th February 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Where do the risks to the MPC’s forecasts lie? Last week’s Inflation Report saw the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) seemingly abandon “Project Fear” in favour of “Project Optimism”. Indeed, the MPC seemed upbeat on growth prospects and relaxed... 3rd February 2017 · 1 min read
