Europe Chart Pack Steady labour market recovery continues Recent data on the euro-zone’s labour market have been encouraging. December’s decline in the unemployment rate to 9.6% left it at its lowest since May 2009. We expect the labour market recovery to... 1st February 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response New Zealand Labour Market (Q4) While employment growth remained decent in the fourth quarter, a sharp increase in the labour force meant that the unemployment rate jumped back above 5.0%. This won’t worry the RBNZ too much, but the... 31st January 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economic Outlook Brexit resilience to continue While there are still considerable uncertainties over the economic outlook, we maintain our view that the damage from the UK’s vote to leave the EU will be smaller than most forecasters have... 31st January 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP (Q4), Unemployment (Dec.) & Flash CPI (Jan.) The latest data revealing that euro-zone GDP ended 2016 on a positive note and that inflation rose sharply in January will give the ECB food for thought, but we still expect the Bank to be buying... 31st January 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Industrial Production, Household Spending & Unemployment (Dec.) While today’s release on household spending suggests private consumption may have weakened in the fourth quarter, better-than-expected industrial production in December is consistent with a continued... 31st January 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Economy robust as election contests take shape Data released last week suggested that the euro-zone economy started 2017 on a pretty strong footing. January’s Composite PMI remains consistent with quarterly GDP growth of about 0.4%, while the rise... 27th January 2017 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Base effects hold down wage growth We expect a slightly stronger 170,000 increase in non-farm payrolls in January. Base effects mean that the annual growth rate of average hourly earnings probably edged down to 2.8%, from 2.9%, but... 26th January 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Sweden (Dec.) & Norway (Nov.) Labour Market Data December’s labour market data suggest that wage pressures are building in Sweden, supporting our view that the Riksbank will tighten policy this year. But in Norway, despite November’s fall in... 26th January 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Chart Pack Q4 data point to pick-up in GDP growth On the whole, the activity data suggest that GDP growth in the Nordic and Swiss economies has picked up. Granted, Icelandic consumer confidence suggests that growth might have slowed slightly. But it... 25th January 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Canada will have strong hand in NAFTA negotiations US President Donald Trump’s inauguration speech, in which he pledged to always put America first, was potentially bad news for Canada. Trump has indicated that he wants to begin an almost immediate... 24th January 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Flash Manufacturing PMI (Jan.) January’s manufacturing PMI suggests that Japan’s economic recovery picked up pace at the start of the year. What’s more, the weaker yen is fuelling price pressures. 24th January 2017 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack America first President Donald Trump’s inauguration speech left no one in any doubt that his administration will pursue trade protectionism aggressively. He argued for putting “America first” and that “protection... 23rd January 2017 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack Signs of strength in labour market In contrast to China’s remarkably stable GDP figures, data on the labour market corroborate evidence from elsewhere that the economy strengthened in recent quarters. China created over 13 million new... 23rd January 2017 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack Attention turns to state elections Upcoming state elections in India are likely to have an important bearing on economic policy at the local level. But perhaps more significant, the outcome of the state elections could be crucial in... 23rd January 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economic Outlook Trumped up? The world economy looks set to grow more rapidly this year than last. A substantial fiscal stimulus in the US will boost its growth rate, but will have only a limited impact on the rest of the world... 20th January 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economic Outlook Swiss, Swedish and Norwegian currencies set to rise Prospects for the Nordic and Swiss economies’ are fairly good, with Sweden and Iceland likely to be the best performers. But the outlook for inflation, and therefore monetary policy, varies... 20th January 2017 · 1 min read
