India Chart Pack Reform agenda takes off in 2016 2016 will be remembered as the year that Prime Minister Modi finally began to deliver on promises of much-needed economic reform. However, with a number of state elections due to take place over the... 21st December 2016 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Chart Pack Mixed performance in Q3, but surveys bode well for Q4 Recent national accounts data showed a marked divergence in quarterly economic growth in Q3, with the Swiss economy stagnating while the Icelandic economy expanded by an impressive 4.6% q/q. In the... 20th December 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Underlying momentum in economy still sluggish The 3.5% annualised rebound in third-quarter GDP, after the 1.3% contraction in the second quarter caused by wildfire-related disruptions to oil production, is encouraging, but the underlying momentum... 19th December 2016 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Survey evidence points to solid GDP growth The survey evidence has strengthened considerably in recent months and even though fourth-quarter GDP growth will probably fall back to 2.2% annualised, as the third-quarter spike in exports is... 19th December 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Good start to the festive season There has been no sign of a let-up in the strong pace of high-street spending growth at the start of the festive season. But it seems doubtful that spending will maintain its recent strength in the... 15th December 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Labour Market (Nov.) The improvement in jobs growth in recent months provides further evidence that the fall in GDP in the third quarter was a blip rather than anything more worrying. But while the lower underemployment... 15th December 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Flash Manufacturing PMI (Dec.) The manufacturing PMI was the highest in December in almost a year and supports our view that the economy continued to expand at a robust pace this quarter. 15th December 2016 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Employment (Oct.) The number of people in work fell slightly in October, suggesting that some of the labour market’s recent resilience may now be fading. But we doubt the weakness will escalate to an extent that puts... 14th December 2016 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Labour Market (Oct./Nov.) There are some tentative signs that the jobs market has lost some of its earlier strength. But we don’t expect any weakening to be particularly severe. 14th December 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Focus The persistent part-time problem The recent rise in the share of people working part-time but who would like to work longer will continue to restrain wage growth for another couple of years yet. This part-time problem means that a... 14th December 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Tankan (Q4) While firms’ capital spending plans remain much weaker than in previous years, the rebound in the headline index of today’s Tankan should encourage the Bank of Japan to refrain from further easing. 14th December 2016 · 1 min read
Global Inflation Watch Reflation in the US, but not elsewhere Even before the latest rise in oil prices, the average inflation rate in the G7 was set to rebound to over 2% early next year. In the US, Donald Trump’s planned fiscal stimulus should boost US demand... 13th December 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Chart Pack The tide for the yen has turned The Bank of Japan’s favourite gauge of underlying price pressures remains just a touch above zero. However, spare capacity is narrowing and growth in part-time pay has started to pick up. What’s more... 12th December 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly How long will the consumer spending spree last? There are concerns that the expected rise in inflation will cause consumer spending growth to slow sharply ahead. Indeed, households would probably have to run their saving rates far below all-time... 9th December 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly What to expect from the upcoming Shunto? We expect the upcoming spring wage negotiations to result in base pay hikes of only 0.5% or so, which would be broadly in line with the increase agreed upon this year. Even with output per employee... 9th December 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly What we know about fourth-quarter GDP The fall in GDP in the third quarter means that the data for the fourth quarter will determine whether or not Australia succumbs to its first recession in 25 years. We think it will escape, but only... 9th December 2016 · 1 min read
