Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Australia won’t stay ahead for long The rebound in GDP growth in Australia in the fourth quarter and the easing in New Zealand appear to imply that the neighbouring nations are experiencing a change of fortunes. But we doubt this is a... 23rd March 2017 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack Demonetisation impact wearing off The latest economic data for India suggest that the most acute impact from the government’s demonetisation measures has now passed. Both the manufacturing and services PMI readings for February came... 23rd March 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Norwegian Labour Force Survey (Jan.) We doubt that the labour market is recovering as quickly as the decline in the Labour Force Survey measure of unemployment suggests. While things are gradually improving, wage growth looks set to... 22nd March 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack South Korea elections: key names to watch Political campaigning in South Korea ahead of presidential elections due on 9th May is now well underway. Given the extent of public anger against ousted former president Park Geun-hye and her ruling... 21st March 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Strong employment growth still not lifting wages everywhere Labour markets have continued to recover in all of the four major advanced economies in recent years but prospects for wage growth still differ considerably. The rise in earnings growth in the US is... 20th March 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Slow growth in labour earnings likely to persist Recent headline employment gains, mainly in full-time work, have been impressive. It turns out that most of the job creation over the past year have been in industries where hours worked are below... 17th March 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Much faster wage growth still needed We wouldn’t read much into the smaller pay hikes for employees of large manufacturing firms that have been agreed in this year’s Shunto wage negotiations. Wage growth for most workers looks set to... 17th March 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Labour Market (Feb.) The stronger than expected rise in the unemployment rate and the pick-up in the underutilisation rate, which is a broader measure of spare capacity, suggests that there is still plenty of slack in the... 16th March 2017 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Employment (Jan.) Today’s Labour Force Survey showed that job creation picked up in January. This adds to the evidence that occupier market conditions are likely to hold up fairly well this year. 15th March 2017 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Labour Market (Jan.) The latest labour market data show that average earnings growth is not picking up alongside inflation, resulting in a squeeze on real wage growth. However, we think that the tightness of the labour... 15th March 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Chart Pack Wage growth picking up Japan’s unemployment rate is the lowest it has been since the mid-1990s and the job-to-applicant ratio is approaching its bubble year peak. Regular wages are rising at the fastest pace in years, and... 14th March 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Feb.) While employment rose by a moderate 15,300 in February, the bigger story was the massive 105,100 jump in full-time work, extending the run of better quality jobs lately. That adds to the evidence the... 10th March 2017 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Feb.) The 235,000 gain in non-farm payrolls in February will erase any lingering doubts that the Fed might not hike interest rates next week. It will also be greeted with a cheer from the White House. 10th March 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly What would make the RBA raise rates? Although we still believe that the next move in interest rates in Australia will be down, it is useful to consider what would need to happen to prompt the RBA to raise rates. Two scenarios stand out... 10th March 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Labour Cash Earnings (Jan.) The steady growth in overall labour cash earnings in January masks the strongest increase in base pay in almost two decades. Nonetheless, wages would still have to rise considerably faster to meet the... 9th March 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Economy Watchers Survey (Feb.) Today’s Economy Watchers Survey suggests that the recovery in industrial production has ground to a halt. It also suggests that the number of employed persons will expand at a slower pace in coming... 8th March 2017 · 1 min read
