US Data Response Employment Report (Sep.) The 33,000 decline in non-farm payrolls in September was worse than the consensus forecast at 90,000 or our own 100,000 estimate but, frankly, all of us were waving a finger in the air and guessing... 6th October 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Labour Cash Earnings (Aug.) The rebound in wage growth in August reflects a fading drag from falling summer bonuses rather than any acceleration in regular earnings. Stronger gains in part-time pay suggest that underlying wage... 6th October 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Focus Prime-age participation has further to rise The share of people aged 25 to 54 who are in the labour force is likely to rise further over the coming years, as labour market conditions continue to tighten and disability rates drop back... 4th October 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Tankan (Q3) Today’s Tankan survey suggests that growth remained robust in the third quarter. Capacity and staff shortages are the most pronounced since the early 1990s and the survey suggests that price pressures... 2nd October 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Jobs growth to be concentrated in highly paid sectors While leading labour market indicators in Australia continue to point a decent pace of employment growth ahead, it is not just the rate of jobs growth that matters but also the composition. And at... 29th September 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Activity, Labour Market & Inflation (Aug.) Today’s activity data point to a slowdown in GDP growth in Q3. Meanwhile, price pressures are strengthening again as the labour market remains tight. But we expect inflation to settle around 0.5% in... 29th September 2017 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Hurricanes will batter payroll figures The September employment report is likely to be affected heavily by the disruption caused by Hurricanes Harvey and Irma. Our best guess is that payrolls rose by around 100,000, about half of the gain... 28th September 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Turning point? The encouraging signs about the health of the Australian economy have continued over the past month, with employment growth gathering pace and the outlook for business investment improving. (See Chart... 28th September 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Small Business Confidence (Sep.) Small business confidence was little changed in September and points to modest gains in industrial production. Meanwhile, the survey confirms that capacity shortages have intensified but suggests that... 27th September 2017 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack Core price pressures are building Some have argued that the recent jump in inflation is all about a surge in volatile food prices, with the implication that it shouldn’t have a significant bearing on monetary policy. But this ignores... 21st September 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Early signs of a Q3 pick-up The latest data suggest that, following a strong Q2, growth in Emerging Europe as a whole picked up further in Q3. Activity figures from Poland improved in July and August and the early signs are that... 20th September 2017 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack Property market set to cool further Some have pointed to a rise in home sales and housing starts growth in August as evidence that China’s property sector is holding up well despite the government’s curbs. But while the property sector... 19th September 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update How big is the overheating risk in Hungary? There are no clear signs yet that Hungary’s economy is overheating but, by the same token, growing signs that the economy is hitting capacity constraints sit uncomfortably with the MPC’s continued... 18th September 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Labour Costs (Q2) & Trade (Jul.) Today’s euro-zone labour costs data reinforce our view that the ECB will set out in October its plans to taper its asset purchases to zero in the first nine months of 2018. Meanwhile, July’s fall in... 15th September 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly What does the surge in full-time jobs mean for wages? While the acceleration in full-time jobs growth in Australia since the start of the year is clearly a positive development for income and consumption growth, the impact on wage growth and inflation is... 15th September 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Labour Market (Aug.) The age-old volatility of Australia’s jobs data has given way to a remarkable period of consistency, with the 54,200 leap in August marking the eleventh rise in as many months. That’s the longest run... 14th September 2017 · 1 min read
