Africa Economics Focus Making sense of Africa’s statistical muddle Sceptics are right to question the reliability of official economic statistics in Africa, but the problems unevenly distributed across the region. For Africa’s larger economies, we think that the... 12th October 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Chart Pack Positive verdict on Abenomics ahead of snap elections The economy is providing a favourable backdrop to Prime Minister Abe’s efforts to be re-elected on 22nd October. Firms are the most upbeat in a generation following a jump in their profits. Job growth... 12th October 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Stage set for a pick-up in wage and investment growth The latest JOLT and NFIB surveys underline that labour market conditions are exceptionally tight, and suggest that the recent pick-up in wage and investment growth has further to run. 11th October 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Consumer Confidence (Oct.) The Westpac measure of consumer confidence leapt to its highest level in a year in October, which was a welcome sight given the recent run of weak data on household spending. That said, we remain... 11th October 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Economy Watchers Survey (Sep.) The jump in household activity in today’s Economy Watchers Survey suggests that the recent slowdown in consumer spending is unlikely to last. And if anything, buoyant consumers should bolster the... 10th October 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Focus Election unlikely to revive Abenomics Victory for Prime Minister Abe in this month’s election would keep Japan on the same track it has been on since 2012, pursuing fiscal tightening, loose monetary policy and tentative structural reform... 10th October 2017 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Sep.) The 33,000 decline in non-farm payrolls in September was worse than the consensus forecast at 90,000 or our own 100,000 estimate but, frankly, all of us were waving a finger in the air and guessing... 6th October 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Labour Cash Earnings (Aug.) The rebound in wage growth in August reflects a fading drag from falling summer bonuses rather than any acceleration in regular earnings. Stronger gains in part-time pay suggest that underlying wage... 6th October 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Focus Prime-age participation has further to rise The share of people aged 25 to 54 who are in the labour force is likely to rise further over the coming years, as labour market conditions continue to tighten and disability rates drop back... 4th October 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Tankan (Q3) Today’s Tankan survey suggests that growth remained robust in the third quarter. Capacity and staff shortages are the most pronounced since the early 1990s and the survey suggests that price pressures... 2nd October 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Jobs growth to be concentrated in highly paid sectors While leading labour market indicators in Australia continue to point a decent pace of employment growth ahead, it is not just the rate of jobs growth that matters but also the composition. And at... 29th September 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Activity, Labour Market & Inflation (Aug.) Today’s activity data point to a slowdown in GDP growth in Q3. Meanwhile, price pressures are strengthening again as the labour market remains tight. But we expect inflation to settle around 0.5% in... 29th September 2017 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Hurricanes will batter payroll figures The September employment report is likely to be affected heavily by the disruption caused by Hurricanes Harvey and Irma. Our best guess is that payrolls rose by around 100,000, about half of the gain... 28th September 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Turning point? The encouraging signs about the health of the Australian economy have continued over the past month, with employment growth gathering pace and the outlook for business investment improving. (See Chart... 28th September 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Small Business Confidence (Sep.) Small business confidence was little changed in September and points to modest gains in industrial production. Meanwhile, the survey confirms that capacity shortages have intensified but suggests that... 27th September 2017 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack Core price pressures are building Some have argued that the recent jump in inflation is all about a surge in volatile food prices, with the implication that it shouldn’t have a significant bearing on monetary policy. But this ignores... 21st September 2017 · 1 min read
