Growth likely to slow further in 2019

The latest manufacturing PMIs add to the evidence that economic growth in Switzerland and Sweden will continue to slow. The Swiss index is consistent with annual growth in industrial production of about 3%, compared to almost 8% at the end of 2017. And the Swedish index points to industrial output contracting in annual terms. More generally, we think that both economies will lose pace this year as growth in the euro-zone weakens and a sharp contraction in construction in Sweden weighs on investment there. By contrast, while Norway’s manufacturing PMI did not rise as far in 2017, it has shown no sign of weakening. Nevertheless, we still think that growth in Norway will slow as lower oil prices take a toll.