Filtered by Region: Emerging Markets Use setting Emerging Markets
SARB’s lower inflation target proposal looks close A backdrop of subdued price pressures and declining inflation expectations strengthen the argument that a lower inflation target could bring even deeper interest cuts onto the table. Reserve Bank Governor …
4th July 2025
Muddled guidance in Poland, but further cuts likely The decision by the National Bank of Poland (NBP) to cut interest rates by 25bp at its meeting on Wednesday was a dovish surprise to most analysts who had expected policy to be left unchanged, although …
Strong monsoon would boost economy The southwest monsoon this week fully covered India, around a week earlier than the historic norm. This raises the prospect of a bountiful kharif (monsoon) harvest, which bodes well for economic prospects in the second …
Romania takes a (small) step in the right direction The fiscal tightening measures announced by Romania’s new government, which took office this week, are a welcome development for investors after the political turmoil last month and the alarming widening …
27th June 2025
GNU’s first birthday: fights holding back reform Next week marks a year in office for South Africa’s Government of National Unity (GNU). Both investor sentiment and supply conditions have improved under their watch, but persistent intra-party disputes …
Israel-Iran and what it means for Africa The Israel-Iran conflict has caused a jump in oil prices over the past week and there’s a clear risk of further escalation that pushes prices up even higher. That would spell bad news for most African economies, …
20th June 2025
Risk of further escalation continues to mount The continued Israel-Iran military strikes are likely to have a limited direct impact on Israel’s economy – so long as the conflict remains confined to a matter of weeks. But the risk of escalation is high, …
Europe is taking Trump’s side on China When President Trump returned to office, his aggressive treatment of traditional allies raised the possibility that the EU and China would come together in defence of free trade. But the opposite is happening: US …
China senses an opportunity as the US disengages China’s pledge to provide tariff-free access to imports from Africa is a clear effort to strengthen ties as the US disengages from the region, and also appears to be a concessions to African leaders …
13th June 2025
The Israeli air strikes on Iran overnight have renewed fears of a widening of conflict in the Middle East. We covered the implications for the oil market and the global economy in a report here , and discussed the latest developments in a Drop-in …
Beijing continues to prioritise investment The State Council released another policy document this week promising to “further guarantee and improve people’s livelihoods.” But this latest pledge to support households is once again empty. The government has …
Our Q3 India Outlook This week we published our Q3 India Economic Outlook , which contains all of our latest analysis of India’s economy and financial markets. The forecasts and underlying data can also be viewed in our interactive India Macro Dashboard …
Nigeria floods: worse to come? The flooding Nigeria has faced in recent weeks has claimed scores of lives and, while the economic hit should be limited, the country’s vulnerability to further climate challenges is worryingly high. We should first note the …
6th June 2025
The European Commission gave its approval for Bulgaria join the euro-zone this week, which clears the way for the country to adopt the euro on 1 st January 2026. Bulgaria’s accession had been delayed over the past couple of years in large part due to …
Rapid economic growth ≠ equity outperformance Data released this week suggest the economy has carried its recent momentum into Q2. Although May’s composite PMI output balance fell slightly, it remained firmly in expansionary territory. (See Chart 1.) This …
Xi finally talks to Trump Yesterday’s phone call between the Chinese and American heads of state reduces the immediate risk that the Geneva truce breaks apart but doesn’t make a more permanent reduction in tensions more likely. Based on what the two sides …
Higher GDP forecasts for 2025 and 2026 Data released today confirmed that the economy got off to a strong start in 2025 – GDP growth rose to 7.4% y/y, from 6.4% y/y in Q4 2024 (revised up from 6.2%). (See here for our Data Response .) Looking ahead, it’s …
30th May 2025
The polls ahead of the second-round run off of Poland’s presidential election on Sunday point to a very tight race, with the two remaining candidates sharing virtually equal levels of support. The president of Poland has little direct input into domestic …
US tariffs on China likely to remain high Just a day after the US Court of International Trade ordered the removal of Trump’s Liberation Day and fentanyl-related tariffs, a federal appeals court put that ruling on hold. If the appeals court upholds the …
RBI to transfer record dividend The RBI today announced a dividend transfer of INR2.7trn (US$34bn, 0.8% of GDP) to the Finance Ministry for FY24/25 (which ended in March). This is a record amount in both INR terms and relative to GDP, and exceeds the …
23rd May 2025
Assessing the fallout after a busy election weekend Last Sunday was a busy day of voting in CEE and threw out some surprises. Pro-EU centrist Nicusor Dan won the second round of Romania’s presidential election, even though he’d lagged in the polls. …
SA budget merely presses pause on fiscal debate South Africa’s finance minister appears to have succeeded – at the third time of asking – at delivering a 2025 Budget that will make it through parliament. But it seems almost certain that tensions within …
Fewer exports to US but more to other markets Chinese exports have so far held up much better than many had feared in response to US tariffs. In dollar terms they expanded a robust 8.1% in April . And there are few signs of weakness this month. Growth in …
We still expect a slowdown this year The tariff de-escalation agreed at the start of this week is good news for Chinese exporters who were facing a collapse in exports to the US. But we haven’t changed our growth forecasts for China’s economy for a few …
16th May 2025
The polls ahead of presidential elections in Romania and Poland this Sunday point to diverging political paths for the two largest economies in Central and Eastern Europe over the coming years. We’ll be discussing the implications of Sunday’s election …
Fiscal slippage appears more likely across SSA Leaders across Sub-Saharan Africa faced with fiscal strains are increasingly embracing tax reform rather than rises. Banking on the former to quickly raise revenue is ambitious and we think this risks further …
9th May 2025
The strong showing for far-right nationalist, George Simion, in the first round of Romania’s Presidential election on Sunday has deepened the country’s political crisis, and the fallout in Romania’s financial markets could get more messy in the coming …
Tariffs aren't the only headwind facing exporters The US-China trade talks taking place in Geneva this weekend could pave the way for a partial rollback in tariffs. Trump has continued to rule out doing so without anything in return. And China’s …
SA 2025 Budget: fiscal slippage is coming South Africa’s 2025 Budget will be tabled for a third time later this month and, to be approved, we think the ANC and DA will need to agree on some spending cuts, although it probably won’t be enough to avoid some …
2nd May 2025
Additional fiscal easing may be needed before long Our China Activity Proxy published earlier this week showed that China’s economy slowed in Q1, growing by just 3.9% y/y. That’s despite the fact that the trade war with the US was only just getting …
Russia’s economy may be starting to break ... The latest economic data released out of Russia have given clear signals that growth has slowed sharply, with GDP having potentially contracted outright in q/q terms in Q1. We had expected a slowdown to …
Exporters relatively well-placed to benefit US Treasury Scott Bessent said this week that “India would be one of the first trade deals we [the US] would sign”, brightening the prospects of India avoiding large tariffs once the 90-day reprieve comes to an …
SA 2025 budget closer, but fiscal slippage coming South Africa’s 2025 budget took a vital step forward after the Treasury scrapped its proposed VAT hike this week. With the DA also recommitting to the GNU, this will provide some of the certainty that the …
25th April 2025
The US steps up its peace deal efforts The US has been pushing harder over the past week to achieve a peace deal that Russia is willing to accept. But the more concessions that are offered to Putin, the less willing Ukraine is likely to be on board with a …
China continues to rebuff Trump Earlier this week, President Trump gave the clearest indication yet that he is keen to row back tariffs on China, which he said would “come down substantially”. But, for now at least, the White House has ruled out doing so …
Trump policies may be levering India towards US US Vice President JD Vance hailed “very good progress” on a potential trade deal between Washington and New Delhi during his visit to India this week, and prospects do appear to have brightened with the two …
Pharmaceuticals tariffs incoming A US import levy on pharmaceuticals would be a blow to India’s economy but far from a fatal one. Admittedly, India has been dubbed the “pharmacy of the world” and its success in the industry has helped its pharmaceuticals …
17th April 2025
CBRT hikes rates amid significant capital outflows Turkey’s central bank (CBRT) delivered a hawkish surprise in raising its one-week repo rate to 46.00% today. While this won't tighten monetary conditions, it does formalise the tightening delivered …
SARB’s inflation uncertainty may be falling The SARB’s Monetary Policy Review (MPR) published this week set out plenty of upside risks to inflation. But it looks like some of the risks from VAT hikes and tariffs have diminished, which could give the SARB …
Pause on reciprocal tariffs reduces risks for CEE President Trump’s 90-day pause on “reciprocal” tariffs has reduced the scale of downside risks to the global economy, and our new working assumption is that US tariffs on most economies stay at the 10% …
11th April 2025
China rather than US trade big concern for Africa Africa’s direct damage from tariffs imposed by the US should be limited, but the indirect hit will be larger if global growth weakens, and financial spillovers materialise. After US President Trump dialed …
At some point a partial rollback in tariffs is likely… The effective US tariff rate on China started the year at 11% (based on 2024 weights). It is now at 145%. Earlier this week we noted that tariff rates above 100% would cause Chinese exports to the US …
Opportunities for India amid tariff chaos All of our analysis of the latest twists and turns in the trade war – notably President Trump’s decision to postpone reciprocal tariffs (bar China) for 90 days – can be found here . Of course, things are subject …
A weaker renminbi, just not against the dollar China’s response today to President Trump’s 34% “reciprocal tariff” on China was more aggressive than we had anticipated . (Initial thoughts on Trump’s tariff on China can be found here .) The moves take the …
4th April 2025
If the US tariffs on imports from the EU announced this week are kept in place, our current assessment is that this will lower GDP growth across Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) by 0.3-0.4%-pts on average over the coming year. Judging by the sharp …
Direct hit from Trump tariffs to be limited African economies will, for the most part, be relatively unaffected by US President Trump’s tariff announcement this week, at least directly. But it may cause indirect harm through lower commodity prices. And …
Near-term hit from tariffs for India won’t be big Our response to the Liberation Day tariff announcements includes analysis of the global macro impact here , the financial market impact here , online briefings that can be viewed on demand here and various …
Trump’s auto tariffs to deal limited blow to SA South Africa finds itself in the firing line from US President Trump’s auto tariffs, but the macro impact will be limited and other developments over the past week have been more positive for the country’s …
28th March 2025
Autos now in the crosshairs The Trump administration’s announcement of a 25% import tariff on autos and some auto parts will have a particularly large impact on Hungary and Slovakia. Our detailed response on Thursday to the tariff news can be found here . …
Concessions to Trump may not prove enough All eyes are now on the Trump administration’s reciprocal tariff plans, due to be unveiled on Wednesday 2 nd April. There is still huge uncertainty around what form reciprocal tariffs will take. The administration …
