Emerging Asia Chart Pack (March 2024) …
26th March 2024
India retained its title as the world’s fastest-growing major economy last year and the latest data suggest that the economy continues to perform exceptionally well. Headline inflation has eased in recent months and we think it will reach the 4% midpoint …
Faltering consumer spending reinforces our view that GDP growth will slow this year, although that slowdown is likely to be modest. After a disappointing couple of months for inflation, easing demand growth should help to drive a more marked decline later …
25th March 2024
GDP growth will come in below consensus in most EMs this year, with the notable exceptions of India and Taiwan. Although stubborn wage growth means the pace of disinflation is likely to slow from here, we think the EM monetary easing cycle will broaden …
22nd March 2024
All-property total returns have turned the corner, with a month-on-month rise in January and February. Rental growth is set to continue to ease, but yields are close to a peak and that will remove the downward pressure on capital values over the next …
19th March 2024
Our latest Latin America Chart Pack is embedded below. Activity in the region slowed to a crawl at the end of last year and, while a recovery will take hold in the coming quarters, growth will disappoint consensus expectations. The disinflation process …
13th March 2024
Global Economics Chart Pack (March 2024) …
The timeliest data support our long-held view that the euro-zone economy will remain close to recession in the first half of the year. Beyond that, we think growth will be much lower than the consensus or the ECB are forecasting. However, the labour …
12th March 2024
We expect oil prices to edge lower in the second half of 2024 as OPEC+ starts to unwind its production cuts. However, the Israel-Hamas war, and associated risks to supply, will act as a floor under prices. Natural gas and coal prices will also fall owing …
Oil prices have so far shrugged off disruptions to shipping in the Red Sea and the risk of wider conflict in the Middle East. Prices were supported by the OPEC+ decision to roll over production cuts until Q3. We expect that the group will gradually unwind …
11th March 2024
Industrial metals demand will recover this year, boosted by rate cuts and a bit of a recovery in economic growth in advanced economies. That said, recovering supply will cap price rises for some metals, such as aluminium and nickel. Policies outlined at …
8th March 2024
Canada Chart Pack (Feb. 2024) …
29th February 2024
Aggregate EM growth softened towards the end of last year and we think it will remain weak in 2024. But there will be divergence at the country level with growth slowing in those economies that outperformed in 2023 and growth picking up in last year’s …
We expect ‘safe’ assets to rally a bit more over the next couple of years, largely informed by our belief that investors are underestimating how quickly and/or how far many central banks will cut interest rates over 2024-2025. Our expectation that safe …
Economies in Central and Eastern Europe ended 2023 on a weak note, but the outlook for this year looks brighter. Lower inflation and interest rates should support a recovery in domestic demand over the coming quarters. In contrast, Turkey’s economy has …
Despite renewed inflation concerns pushing interest rate expectations and gilt yields higher, our forecast that CPI inflation will fall below 1.0% later this year makes us think that the markets are wrong to price in interest rates falling from 5.25% now …
China’s economy has regained some strength recently. We expect this to continue over the coming months, on the back of support from fiscal policy and a further pick-up in household spending. But with property construction likely to continue to decline and …
The US dollar has made further gains against most major currencies over the past month or so. Interest rate expectations have edged higher in the US and in most places outside Asia, weighing particularly on that region's currencies. While we no longer …
28th February 2024
We think the Fed and most other DM central banks will deliver a bit more policy rate cuts this year and next than investors currently anticipate. As a result, we forecast that Treasury yields will end 2024 slightly below their current levels, putting …
Africa Chart Pack (Feb. 2024) …
Emerging Asia Chart Pack (February 2024) …
Economic growth in the Middle East and North Africa will strengthen a little this year but is likely to come in well below consensus expectations. OPEC+’s output cuts should gradually reverse from the end of this quarter but will keep a lid on economic …
26th February 2024
Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack (Q1 2024) …
23rd February 2024
The latest monthly activity data suggest that Mexico and Brazil ended 2023 on a weak note, a trend we expect to continue this year. But we think the Andean economies are on track to stage a recovery. The big falls in inflation in the region are behind us …
22nd February 2024
India’s economy performed exceptionally well last year and the latest data suggest that it has made a flying start to 2024 too. While inflation eased last month, we think it will be a slow grind back to the 4% midpoint of the RBI’s 2-6% target range. That …
Central banks in both Australia and New Zealand are likely to remain in “wait and watch” mode in the near term, given lingering risks to the inflation outlook. However, we think concerns about inflation persistence are overdone. Goods inflation is already …
The economy continues to appear impervious to higher interest rates and, although we expect growth to slow over the first half of this year, that slowdown is likely to be modest. But we don’t expect continued economic resilience to prevent inflation from …
21st February 2024
All-property values are down by 15% since mid-2022. But, with cap rates set to climb toward 5.5% by the end of the forecast period, we think capital value falls have some way to go still, with the total decline set to reach 26%. For offices, the …
20th February 2024
GDP has fallen for two consecutive quarters but we don’t think the economy is in recession and should return to growth this year. While the gap between nominal wages and inflation is closing fast, the wage-price virtuous cycle will receive a boost when …
The decline in mortgage rates since last summer will allow more first-time buyers to enter the market and lead to a further pick up in mortgage lending. With supply still tight, we think that will cause a 3% increase in prices this year. The large rise in …
19th February 2024
We think that global growth will undershoot consensus expectations in 2024 as various props to growth from 2023 fade and as the lagged effects of past rate hikes continue to feed through. Among the advanced economies, the US will continue to outperform …
15th February 2024
Another rise in all-property yields in Q4 helped valuations improve slightly. But on our measure all-property still looks substantially overvalued. Looking ahead, a fall in alterative asset yields will help valuations gradually improve this year, but they …
8th February 2024
The euro-zone will remain close to recession in the first half of the year as the effects of higher interest rates continue to weigh on household consumption and investment, and fiscal policy is tightened. Headline inflation will be close to the ECB’s 2% …
The faster-than-expected fall in wage growth in November suggests the unexpected rebound in CPI inflation in December will be fleeting. We still think that by April CPI inflation will have fallen below the 2.0% target, and further declines in utility …
7th February 2024
Oil prices are likely to remain buffeted by supply fears as long as the conflict in the Middle East continues. However, we think there will be support on the demand side later in the year as monetary policy in most major economies is loosened. By …
6th February 2024
Energy prices have so far shrugged off disruptions to shipping in the Red Sea and the risk of wider conflict in the Middle East. If energy production continues to be largely unaffected, we expect most prices to fall further by the end of the year. Greater …
5th February 2024
Industrial metals demand will recover this year, boosted by rate cuts and stabilising economic growth in advanced economies. In addition, construction activity in China is robust and we think support for property developers will stabilise the sector and …
2nd February 2024
High interest rates are still feeding through and we expect both GDP and employment to be flat over the next two quarters. As excess supply builds, a fall in inflation to the 2% target will leave scope for the Bank of Canada to cut interest rates sharply, …
31st January 2024
Africa Chart Pack (Jan. 2024) …
Inflation continued to fall sharply across Central and Eastern Europe at the end of 2023, but we think that the disinflation process is entering a more difficult phase in 2024 as demand is beginning to recover. While monetary easing cycles are likely to …
Emerging Asia Chart Pack (Jan. 2024) …
After its sharp fall at the end of 2023, the US dollar has risen against most major currencies so far this year. Interest rate expectations have rebounded a bit in the US and in most places outside Asia, weighing particularly on the region's currencies. …
30th January 2024
We expect “safe” assets to rally a bit more over the next couple of years, largely informed by our belief that investors are still underestimating how quickly and/or how far many central banks will cut interest rates over 2024-2025. That backdrop of …
Our latest Global Markets Chart Pack is embedded below. We think that the Fed and several other DM central banks will deliver more policy rate cuts this year and next than investors currently anticipate. As a result, we forecast that Treasury yields will …
Economic growth in the Middle East and North Africa will strengthen a little in 2024 but is likely to come in well below consensus expectations. OPEC+’s cautious approach to oil policy will keep a lid on economic growth in the Gulf over the first half of …
London house prices were more resilient in 2023 than we had expected, falling by 2.4% y/y in Q4 close to the national average of -2.3% y/y. London is more reliant on mortgaged buyers than other regions and the deterioration in affordability due to high …
25th January 2024
This is a special Global Economics Chart Pack that provides clients with key analysis to make sense of the macro and market impact of the disruptions to maritime shipping. The charts in this document come from our brand-new shipping dashboard , which …
Mexico and Brazil’s economies appear to have struggled towards the end of Q4 – a trend we expect to continue this year. In contrast, the Andean economies are on the recovery path and growth will accelerate this year. In Chile and Peru, inflation is now …
Property yields rose further in Q3, but with risk-free rates now falling back, we think they will stabilise in the first quarter of 2024. But given historically narrow yield spreads, we doubt we will see much yield compression ahead either. As the economy …
24th January 2024
