FX Markets Chart Pack (Jan. 2024)

After its sharp fall at the end of 2023, the US dollar has risen against most major currencies so far this year. Interest rate expectations have rebounded a bit in the US and in most places outside Asia, weighing particularly on the region's currencies. We expect yields to resume their downward trend before long and cause a renewed rebound in the yen (and most other Asian currencies). But we think the near-term outlook for the global economy remains poor and will put pressure on cyclically sensitive currencies. So, we doubt the greenback will see a sustained, broad-based fall until some way into 2024.