After its sharp fall at the end of 2023, the US dollar has risen against most major currencies so far this year. Interest rate expectations have rebounded a bit in the US and in most places outside Asia, weighing particularly on the region's currencies. We expect yields to resume their downward trend before long and cause a renewed rebound in the yen (and most other Asian currencies). But we think the near-term outlook for the global economy remains poor and will put pressure on cyclically sensitive currencies. So, we doubt the greenback will see a sustained, broad-based fall until some way into 2024.
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