Our Middle East and North Africa Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments.
Economic growth in the Middle East and North Africa will strengthen a little this year but is likely to come in well below consensus expectations. OPEC+’s output cuts should gradually reverse from the end of this quarter but will keep a lid on economic growth in the Gulf until the second half of this year. Loose fiscal policy will continue to support activity in non-oil sectors. Elsewhere, balance of payments strains in Egypt and Tunisia mean that the crunch point for a more disorderly adjustment is edging closer. Tunisia’s unwillingness to cooperate with the IMF means that a sovereign default is more likely than not. Talks are ongoing in Egypt, but time is running out.
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